March Madness 2025 Predictions: Best Upset Picks for Every Region

Few moments in March Madness are more satisfying than watching your favorite underdog teams pull off an upset.

That nagging gut feeling you had? It paid off.

(Click here to play the NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Challenge.)

Granted, it might only be correct on three of your 52 brackets—but we don't need to talk about that. We all love celebrating the unexpected results of the NCAA tournament, and 2025 is a virtual certainty to bring more of them.

Only teams seeded 10th or worse were considered.

East Region

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Max Shulga

First-round upset: No. 12 Liberty over No. 5 Oregon

In the 4/13 clash, Arizona is set to face a major challenge from Akron. Don't overlook that matchup, either. Liberty's offense is loaded with upside, as it enters the NCAA tournament ranked sixth nationally in true shooting percentage with six players who average at least 8.8 points. The key for the Flames will be providing some resistance for Oregon star center Nathan Bittle.

Surprise Sweet 16 team: No. 11 VCU

No two opponents are identical, but VCU could benefit from taking on very similar styles. Sixth-seeded BYU and No. 3 Wisconsin both use a perimeter-oriented offense and play at a moderate tempo. Given that VCU is 21st in three-point defense, the Atlantic 10 champions could be a serious thorn.

South Region

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Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones

First-round upset: No. 13 Yale over No. 4 Texas A&M

At least entering the game, there's a straightforward perception. It's a strength-on-strength tilt between a productive Yale offense and feisty Texas A&M defense. Which unit controls the day? Yale won't be lacking confidence after bouncing Auburn last season and repeating as Ivy League champions.

Surprise Sweet 16 team: No. 12 UC San Diego

The reason 5/12 upsets are so popular is No. 12 seeds are typically the best teams from a non-major conference. That's certainly the case for UC San Diego, a program riding a 15-game winning streak that includes 13 double-digit margins. There is nothing fluky about the 30-4 Tritons, who are fully capable of taking out Michigan and either Texas A&M or Yale.

Midwest Region

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Will Wade

First-round upset: No. 13 High Point over No. 4 Purdue

If this piece is your initial research for upsets, get used to seeing High Point. If this is not your first article on the topic, yeah, it's High Point again. Purdue is a solid team yet leans heavily on three players and is vulnerable defensively. On the other side, HPU—which carries a 14-game winning streak into March Madness—is seventh in true shooting percentage

Surprise Sweet 16 team: No. 12 McNeese

Keep an eye on Texas, provided it defeats Xavier in a battle of 11th seeds in the First Four. McNeese, though, is back in the Big Dance and brings a pesky defense to annoy fifth-seeded Clemson. The unit ranks 23rd nationally in opponent turnover rate. Throw in the possibility of High Point eliminating Purdue, and McNeese's path to the Sweet 16 could get more favorable.

West Region

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Nique Clifford

First-round upset: No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis

Not only is Colorado State just a quality team—the Rams won the Mountain West tourney, after all—injury misfortune might hurt Memphis. The team is uncertain if Tyrese Hunter, a key secondary scorer and playmaker, will be available because of a foot injury. If he's out, CSU is an even greater threat to win.

Surprise Sweet 16 team: No. 11 Drake

Drake utilizes a snail-slow tempo and overpowers teams with efficiency. While ranking fourth in opponent turnover rate and 20th in offensive rebound rate allowed, the Bulldogs are 49th in true shooting percentage with a trio of dangerous three-point options. Missouri and Texas Tech are both excellent on the scoring end, but Drake's suffocating defense is elite.