Buying or Selling the Most Notable 2025 MLB Over/Under Win Total Projections
The Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues are in full swing and the start of the Major League Baseball season is just around the corner.
After months of obsessing over offseason roster changes, we at least feel like we have a good grasp on which teams are going to be contenders.
So, let's talk win totals.
Five of these are "notable" because they are the five highest win totals; the likeliest World Series contenders. Got to at least address those star-studded rosters and whether the oddsmakers are expecting too much or not enough out of them this season.
But the other four are "notable" because FanGraphs, PECOTA and DraftKings don't exactly see eye to eye on what that team ought to be able to accomplish in 2025.
Might be a good spot for placing a bet if you're the type to throw a dart at something that won't pay out until at least six months from now.
Teams are presented in alphabetical order. All projections/lines were captured Tuesday morning.
Atlanta Braves
1 of 9
FanGraphs: 93 wins
PECOTA: 93 wins
DraftKings: 93.5
Notable Offseason Changes: Added Jurickson Profar and Bryan De La Cruz; Lost Max Fried, Charlie Morton, AJ Minter, Jesse Chavez, Travis d'Arnaud, Luke Jackson and Jorge Soler
There sure is a lot of agreement here on that 93 number, with Atlanta unanimously projected to be the second-best team in the majors behind only the mighty Dodgers.
But does that feel overly optimistic to anyone else after the lackluster offseason Atlanta had?
Yes, Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. should both return from their injuries by early May, and it's kind of miraculous Atlanta made the playoffs in 2024 while getting virtually nothing out of those two stars.
Part of that miracle is that Chris Sale and Reynaldo López combined to give them a dominant 313.1 innings of work with a 2.21 ERA. If that duo can stay that healthy and that unhittable in 2025—while Strider returns for five months of his normal level of excellence—getting to 94+ wins might be no problem.
With both Fried and Morton out of the picture, though, Atlanta is already likely to open the season with both Ian Anderson and Grant Holmes in the starting rotation until Strider is good to go, and doesn't have much of a Plan B for if and when Sale and/or López spends any time on the shelf.
Moreover, the schedule makers did Atlanta no favors while it waits for the return of its dynamic duo.
Within the first 34 games of the season, the Braves have both of their series against the Dodgers, road series against the Padres, Diamondbacks, Rays and Blue Jays and home clashes with the Phillies and Twins. That's eight of their first 11 series against teams with win totals of 82 or better in at least two of the three projections, and we shall see if they have Strider or Acuña available for any of them.
Verdict: Buying the Under 93.5
Chicago Cubs
2 of 9
FanGraphs: 83 wins
PECOTA: 91.7 wins
DraftKings: 85.5
Notable Offseason Changes: Added Kyle Tucker, Ryan Pressly, Matt Boyd, Justin Turner, Jon Berti, Colin Rea, Caleb Thielbar, Ryan Brasier and Carson Kelly; Lost Cody Bellinger, Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, Mike Tauchman
Projections are all over the map with this one.
Aside from both the Rockies and Marlins projected for 10 more wins by FanGraphs than by PECOTA—but still projected by both to rank among the three worst teams in the majors—this is the widest gap between the two forecasting models.
At 91.7, PECOTA suggest the Cubs should tie the Mets for third-best record in the majors. But at 83, FanGraphs has the Baby Bears in a four-way tie for the 11th-best record. (DraftKings leans more toward FanGraphs, but somewhat splits the difference.)
What's kind of funny here is that PECOTA has the Cubs projected for run totals (757 scored, 667 allowed) similar to where they landed last season (736 and 669, respectively)—but that run differential only got them to 83 wins.
How much better than last season will the projected NL Central champs be, though?
Was replacing Bellinger with Tucker that much of an upgrade?
Will Boyd be good enough or healthy enough (hasn't logged 80 IP in a season since 2019) to help out the rotation?
Can Pressly bounce back from a disappointing 2024 campaign now that he's back in a closer role?
And between Turner, Berti and rookie Matt Shaw, will they actually find a solution to their years-long third base problem, or is it going to be a revolving door of replacement-level production yet again?
Lot of unanswered questions even after a pretty busy offseason.
The Cubs certainly ought to win the NL Central, but that's more so a product of the current state of the other four teams than any sort of assertion that Chicago is a serious threat to win the NLCS.
If the betting line was where PECOTA has them projected, the under would be the play here. As is, 85.5 is a fair line, but 86+ wins feels more likely than not.
Verdict: Buying the Over 85.5
Detroit Tigers
3 of 9
FanGraphs: 82 wins
PECOTA: 78.8 wins
DraftKings: 83.5
Notable Offseason Changes: Added Jack Flaherty, Gleyber Torres, Alex Cobb, Tommy Kahnle, John Brebbia and Andrew Chafin
What's befuddling about Detroit's line isn't so much that PECOTA is nearly five full wins behind DraftKings, but rather that all three expect the Tigers to be worse than they were last season (86 wins), when they very clearly got better this offseason.
Sure, they overachieved to a slightly ridiculous degree over the final seven weeks of the 2024 campaign to reach that 86-win mark. If they were running it back again with the exact same roster, the consensus win total here of around 81.5 would feel like a fair projection.
But Detroit went from a rotation of "Tarik Skubal and pray for some miracles" to what could be a top five rotation in the majors if rookie Jackson Jobe—who is a top-five prospect per each of MLB.com, Baseball American and Baseball Prospectus—is all he's cracked up to be. Cobb isn't expected to be ready for Opening Day, but that just gives Detroit some extra time to figure out whether Reese Olson or Casey Mize is better suited for the fifth spot in the rotation.
This bullpen was already strong, but it looks even better with the additions of Kahnle, Brebbia and Chafin.
And 28-year-old Torres on a one-year prove-it deal should provide a major boost to what was a disappointing infield in 2024. If he has an even remotely bounce-back year while Colt Keith delivers on his potential in year No. 2 in the majors, this team is in business.
If you're loving the over here, the better bet might be Detroit +270 to win the AL Central. However, then you're betting against all of Cleveland, Kansas City and Minnesota not keeping pace with Detroit, so maybe just stick to the win totals.
Verdict: Buying the Over 83.5
.jpg?w=256)
Los Angeles Dodgers
4 of 9
FanGraphs: 96 wins
PECOTA: 103.2 wins
DraftKings: 103.5
Notable Offseason Changes: Added Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Michael Conforto and Hyeseong Kim; Lost Gavin Lux, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Daniel Hudson, Joe Kelly and Ryan Brasier
Honestly, how high would this line need to be before your pick wouldn't be the over if forced to bet on it?
Even while enduring some of the worst injury luck in the majors—two pitchers made more than 18 starts, both of whom missed the postseason; only four position players appeared in at least 80 percent of team games—the Dodgers still won an MLB-best 98 games.
Then they went out and had easily one of the five best offseasons of any team, if not definitively the best one.
Shohei Ohtani is going to pitch again, so there's that "addition," too.
On just about any other team, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski would be top breakout candidates for 2025, liable to be the second- or third-best starting pitcher on the roster by the end of the season. For the Dodgers, those are the "break in case of unthinkable emergency" 10th and 11th options in a healthy rotation.
They now have not one, not two, but five pitchers with at least 45 career saves, and that doesn't even include Michael Kopech who was great for them over the final two months of the season. Preposterously, they could go Kopech, Evan Phillips and Tanner Scott in the seventh-ninth innings one game, followed by Giovanny Gallegos, Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates the next game.
And their Opening Day bench is likely to include Enrique Hernández, Chris Taylor and Andy Pages, who would probably be the starting outfield for the Kansas City Royals, among others.
Anything could happen, but 103.5 feels like a joke for what sure looks like the fully evolved form of a team that has already posted a .648 winning percentage (105.0 per 162 games) over the past six seasons.
I look forward to rooting against the Dodgers for the next eight months just like most of you, but this line would need to be at least 110.5 before I even hesitate to pick the over.
Verdict: Buying the Over 103.5
Milwaukee Brewers
5 of 9
FanGraphs: 81 wins
PECOTA: 79.5 wins
DraftKings: 83.5
Notable Offseason Changes: Added Jose Quintana, Nestor Cortes, Caleb Durbin and Tyler Alexander; Lost Willy Adames, Devin Williams, Frankie Montas, Colin Rea, Hoby Milner, Gary Sanchez and Bryse Wilson
Milwaukee shocked us all last season by winning 93 games despite trading away a bunch of key players (most notably Corbin Burnes), losing several more as free agents and also losing Brandon Woodruff to a season-ending injury before the offseason even began. The Brewers were supposed to crash and burn, projected for a last-place finish in a division they ended up winning by 10 games.
Now, can they do it again?
Both Adames and Williams were major losses. They also parted with four of the seven pitchers who led the team in games started. And that's from what was already kind of a bare bones operation that overachieved in a big way.
But between the acquisitions of Cortes and Quintana and the hope that Woodruff will be back at something close to full strength, the Brew Crew could actually have a solid rotation. Getting Christian Yelich back after he missed most of last season because of a back injury is a big deal, too.
Lot of question marks, though, even apart from the health of Woodruff and Yelich.
In particular, the corner infield situation could be a disaster. FanGraphs has Milwaukee projected as 28th-best (i.e. third-worst) at both first base and third base.
Beyond that, both 2B Brice Turang and RF Sal Frelick are highly valuable on defense, but they've both been liabilities at the plate thus far in their careers, which will be amplified with Adames out of the picture.
And while Trevor Megill filled in admirably as closer for the first half of last season, can he run it back again as the presumed full-time ninth-inning option?
Milwaukee probably deserves some benefit of the doubt in light of its success over the past eight years, but good things don't last forever. PECOTA's 79.5 projection looks better than the actual line here.
Verdict: Buying the Under 83.5
New York Mets
6 of 9
FanGraphs: 87 wins
PECOTA: 91.7 wins
DraftKings: 90.5
Notable Offseason Changes: Added Juan Soto, Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, A.J. Minter, Griffin Canning, Nick Madrigal and Jose Siri; Lost Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Jose Iglesias, J.D. Martinez and Harrison Bader
Even before Mets starting pitchers started dropping like flies in spring training, it was fair to question whether they had done enough in that department; whether letting Severino and Quintana walk and replacing them with Montas' 4.84 ERA in 2024 after missing effectively all of 2023 and Holmes' four career starts at the MLB level was an acceptable trade off.
Now with both Montas and Sean Manaea shut down indefinitely, suddenly Holmes isn't just a starter but maybe New York's No. 2 starter behind Kodai Senga, with David Peterson, Paul Blackburn and Canning filling in the gaps for now.
But, hey, at least they get to pay Soto $51M per year for the next 15 years, right?
And maybe that months-long game of contract chicken with Pete Alonso will be the motivation the Polar Bear needs for a monster campaign?
There's no denying this offense should be great. Bit of a question mark in center, but quite possibly the most potent lineup in the majors anyway. And if the Arizona Diamondbacks (best offense by a 44-run margin) had been even semi-decent at pitching last season, they would've won more than 89 games.
In fact, last year was the first time (excluding 2020) since 2011 that the highest scoring offense didn't win at least 93 games.
For that reason, we pretty much have to go with the over 90.5 here, even though it does feel like the Mets are already one more lat strain away from possibly having a $400M roster with a .500 winning percentage.
Verdict: Buying the Over 90.5
New York Yankees
7 of 9
FanGraphs: 87 wins
PECOTA: 89.1 wins
DraftKings: 91.5
Notable Offseason Changes: Added Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Alex Jackson, Fernando Cruz; Lost Juan Soto, Clay Holmes, Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo, Tommy Kahnle, Nestor Cortes, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Trevino
What happens when you combine the 2017 NL MVP (Giancarlo Stanton), 2019 NL MVP (Bellinger), 2022 NL MVP (Goldschmidt) and the 2022/24 AL MVP (Aaron Judge) in one 2025 lineup?
Guess we're about to find out.
For a team that lost Soto, the Yankees did put in quite a bit of good work this offseason. Adding Fried to the rotation was huge, as was securing one year of Williams at closer after last year's months-long bullpen whirlwind that culminated in Luke Weaver randomly becoming the only arm they could trust.
But which version of Bellinger are they going to get after back-to-back years with well below-average hard-hit percentages and exit velocities?
Does Goldschmidt have enough left in the tank for a bounce-back year, or is he going to further decline for a third straight season?
And when are the Yankees going to trade for Nolan Arenado to address what is one of the worst third-base situations among expected contenders?
Throw in the fact that we already know Stanton and Luis Gil are going to open the season on the IL and the Yankees having the highest win total line among AL teams by a margin of four games feels like a bit of a disconnect from reality.
Verdict: Buying the Under 91.5
Philadelphia Phillies
8 of 9
FanGraphs: 87 wins
PECOTA: 85.7 wins
DraftKings: 91.5
Notable Offseason Changes: Added Jesús Luzardo, Jordan Romano, Max Kepler, Joe Ross; Lost Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman and Spencer Turnbull
FanGraphs having the Phillies projected for 87 wins shouldn't be perceived as offensive. That model is super conservative, putting 70 percent of the league in the 76-86 range. The extremes are the Dodgers at 96 and the White Sox at 63. The Phillies are actually tied with the Mets and Yankees for FG's third-highest projection.
That's fair. Expecting 87 wins is obviously quite low for the supposed third-best teams, but third-best is fair.
PECOTA, on the other hand, has the Phillies at 85.7, in a range of projections from 103.2 on the Dodgers to 54.7 on the Rockies.
PECOTA is fine with extremes, which should be clear from its suggestion that the Phillies are going to be the 13th-best team and should miss the postseason.
This team won 95 games last year and, if anything, got better this offseason.
It's pretty much the exact same offense that ranked fifth in runs scored, the only noteworthy difference being the upgrade from Whit Merrifield/Cristian Pache to Kepler. No one on that offense is getting any younger, but the oldest of the bunch (J.T. Realmuto) hasn't even turned 34 yet. They should be more than fine.
They also acquired Luzardo, which should be a solid answer to last year's Taijuan Walker problem. The Dodgers have a deeper rotation, but this is probably the second-best rotation in the majors, with a chance to be No. 1 if Andrew Painter is the truth.
The only real question is in the bullpen, bringing in Romano while losing Hoffman and Estévez. But between Romano, José Alvarado, Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm, they're not exactly lacking in late inning arms.
And if you're thinking, "Well, one of these NL East teams is bound to underachieve," let's not forget about 2015, when the NL Central's Cardinals (100 wins), Pirates (98) and Cubs (97) posted the three highest win totals in the majors. So if the crowded field is your biggest justification for not picking the over here, it's not a great one.
Verdict: Buying the Over 91.5
Toronto Blue Jays
9 of 9
FanGraphs: 82 wins
PECOTA: 85.1 wins
DraftKings: 78.5
Notable Offseason Changes: Added Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman, Max Scherzer, Andrés Giménez, Myles Straw, Nick Sandlin and Yimi García; Lost Jordan Romano and Spencer Horwitz
Toronto tried to get Juan Soto. Tried to get Corbin Burnes. Tried to get Pete Alonso. Tried to get Roki Sasaki. Tried to get Alex Bregman. Tried to re-sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And on all those home run swings, the Blue Jays whiffed spectacularly.
They got a few nice extra base hits here, though.
Giménez is a defensive wizard at second base. Between him and Daulton Varsho in center, at least a couple parts of this defense should be elite.
Santander brings much needed slugging prowess to a team where Guerrero was the only player with 20 dingers last season.
Hoffman might shine at closer.
Scherzer could have one good year left in his arm.
And, ideally, Bo Bichette will bounce back from what was a horrific campaign out of nowhere after three consecutive years receiving votes for AL MVP.
That might be the biggest catalyst in all of this that no one really talks about. There has been so much fixation on Guerrero's long-term future that people seem to have forgotten how crucial Bichette was to this team winning at least 89 games in each year from 2021-23, ranking top 25 in fWAR among hitters during that three-year stretch.
If he gets right in 2025, this 78.5 line will look hilarious in hindsight. They won 74 games this past season, even with an offense that often felt like "Guerrero or Bust" and a pitching staff where only José Berríos and Bowden Francis amounted to even 1.0 bWAR. (Getting decent production out of Kevin Gausman and/or Chris Bassitt would be nice this year.)
It won't be enough to convince Guerrero to stay on any sort of hometown discount, but the Blue Jays should at least be a good bit better than last season. The PECOTA line of 85 wins feels a whole lot fairer than the actual line you can bet.
Verdict: Buying the Over 78.5
.jpg?w=480)
