6 Mistakes NFL Teams Need to Avoid This Offseason

Mistakes happen, especially in the front offices of professional sports franchises. 

That said, some are easier to predict than others. 

Here are six in particular that teams need to avoid in the coming weeks.

Signing Aaron Rodgers

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There’s almost no reason to take a swing at four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. Here are several reasons to stay away: 

- Rodgers is 41. Only 10 other quarterbacks have started games at that age, and none except Tom Brady had any notable success. 

- Rodgers hasn’t experienced an above-average season statistically since he was 37 in 2021.

- Rodgers has since been plagued by inconsistent play, injuries and off-field drama. 

- Rodgers has proved time and again to be a distraction. 

- It's fair to wonder if Rodgers is fully committed and if he’ll remain committed if things go downhill. 

With Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders in the draft, options like Russell Wilson, Justin Fields and Sam Darnold potentially on the open market and Kirk Cousins likely available via trade, pursuing Rodgers makes no sense. 

Let the guy drift away.

Drafting Shedeur Sanders*

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Why the asterisk? Because value is value, and at a certain point even a guy with red flags is worth the risk. 

This is more of a warning for those top three, quarterback-hungry teams on the board: Tennessee, Cleveland and the Giants. 

The reality is Cam Ward, Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter are much safer prospects, and one is a quarterback. Throw in some decent potential veteran options who could serve as bridges at the very least and the fact the 2026 quarterback class could be fire, and it’s not worth using a primo pick on a quarterback like Sanders. 

This isn’t just about Deion, or a report that the Colorado product came across as "brash" and "arrogant" in team interviews at the combine, or his potential medical risks, or his potential "commitment issues." 

Sanders is also far from a perfect prospect on the field. In fact, he ranked just 16th on the latest Big Board from the B/R NFL Scouting Department.

“Sanders takes too many hits because he tries to make a play and holds onto the ball,” wrote B/R NFL Scout Dame Parson. “Those hits add up in the NFL and can create injuries for the most important person on the roster. Sanders must improve his anticipation; he tends to be a see-it, throw-it style quarterback. This is part of why he holds on to football, which increases his vulnerability. He is equipped with an NFL-caliber arm, but drifting backward in the pocket negatively impacts the velocity behind his passes.”

Unless he drops to you outside of the top handful of picks, that ain’t worth it.

Giving Sam Darnold Starter Money

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Yes, we mentioned both Sanders and Darnold above as potential alternatives to Rodgers. This is all relative. I wouldn’t pursue Darnold either, at least if the annual price tag will be up in the $30-plus million range or if it requires a long-term commitment. 

I like Darnold. He showed in 2024 that he is capable of carrying a talented team with plenty of support for a long stretch. He did not prove that he could continue to do so when it mattered most in January. 

Darnold is a great bridge quarterback and a superb backup. He’s an insurance policy for a contender that may need the coverage in a pinch. But when he completely choked with awful performances in a critical Week 18 loss to the Lions and an even-more-critical playoff loss to the Rams, he reminded us why he was on his fourth roster in a five-year span. 

Somebody will make it five in six, and there’s a good chance they’ll regret it. 

Trading for Deshaun Watson

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This is sort of the reverse Darnold. Nobody will be intrigued by what Watson has done in recent years, but somebody could still fall for his reputation based on his draft stock from 2017 and his early-career dominance in Houston. 

Somebody could easily be fooled into thinking they can get Watson back to where he was as a perennial Pro Bowler in his early-20s, especially since he’s still on the right side of 30 and it’s easy to figure that the Browns were the problem. Plus, Cleveland could be forced to eat a lot of his cost. 

Doesn’t matter. 

When a guy has that much baggage, and when he hasn’t been remotely effective since 2020, and when he’s dealing with a freshly ruptured Achilles, you need to take a hint. 

You can’t fix this man. Too much time has passed and there are too many potential distractions. He’s likely to do more harm than good on your roster.

Investing in Post-Prime Free Agents

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It doesn’t stop at Rodgers and Watson. Teams will inevitably spend way too much money on players based on reputation and history rather than trajectory. 

We of course saw it with Kirk Cousins last year, Derek Carr the year before that, and Chandler Jones in 2022. 

Some candidates for 2025: 

- Edge Khalil Mack: The 34-year-old’s numbers fell off significantly in 2024.

- OT Ronnie Stanley: He is turning 31 in two weeks with a very risky injury history.

- RB Aaron Jones: Always beware of running backs in their 30s.

- WR Chris Godwin: Still just 29, but he has eight intense years under his belt and is coming off a major ankle injury.

For every one of those guys, there’s a younger and cheaper option with more upside. Think: Dayo Odeyingbo, Jedrick Wills Jr., Javonte Williams, Joshua Palmer.

Trading Up in the Draft

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We’ve said Ward, Carter and Hunter are less likely to be mistakes than Sanders, but trading up into the top three for any of them would still be a bad choice. 

It almost always is, especially when you’re moving into the top three for a quarterback. The price is simply too high, and even the top of the draft is too much of a crapshoot. 

In the last 16 drafts, 21 of the 53 quarterbacks picked in the first round were selected following trade-ups. Thirteen of those 21 were top-10 selections. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have been success stories for the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, respectively, but the same can't be said for Bryce Young (so far), Trey Lance, Darnold, Josh Rosen, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff (at least with the Rams), Carson Wentz, Robert Griffin III, Blaine Gabbert and Mark Sanchez. The jury is still out on J.J. McCarthy. 

In modern NFL history, a team has never traded into the top five and landed a quarterback who became its primary starter for more than six years.

So don’t be silly. Be patient.