What to Watch for in Each Conference in Last Full Weekend of Men's CBB Regular Season
The final weekend of the 2024-25 men's college basketball regular season is upon us, and for teams fighting for their lives on the NCAA tournament bubble, it's make-or-break time heading into the conference tournament slate.
The headline matchups this weekend include Alabama vs. Auburn, St. John's vs. Marquette and the annual season-finale rivalry game between Duke and North Carolina.
However, this weekend will also have widespread implications for teams precariously perched on the bubble, and by the time the dust settles on Sunday night, the March Madness picture should be clearer as major conference tournaments get set to tip off.
Ahead, we've provided a full rundown of all the most impactful games on the weekend slate for each conference and what's at stake in each of those key contests.
ACC
1 of 8
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest, 2:15 p.m. ET, Saturday
SMU at Florida State, 4 p.m. ET, Saturday
Duke at North Carolina, 6:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
SMU, North Carolina and Wake Forest are all on the NCAA tournament bubble entering their respective regular-season finales.
The Tar Heels would almost certainly punch their ticket with a win over rival Duke, but they will be significant underdogs.
SMU could possibly survive a Quad 2 loss on the road to Florida State and still have a shot with a strong showing in the ACC tournament, while Wake Forest would likely be eliminated from the bubble conversation entirely with a Quad 3 loss at home to Georgia Tech.
Stanford at Louisville, 2 p.m. ET, Saturday
Virginia Tech at Clemson, 6 p.m. ET, Saturday
Clemson and Louisville are both comfortably in the NCAA tournament field, but they are tied for second in the ACC standings.
Assuming they both take care of business in games they should win on Wednesday night, Saturday will determine who holds the No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament.
The tie-breaker belongs to Louisville.
Big 12
2 of 8
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State, 3 p.m. ET, Saturday
UCF at West Virginia, 5 p.m. ET, Saturday
Houston at Baylor, 10 p.m. ET, Saturday
The Big 12 has six NCAA tournament locks, with the potential to put as many as nine teams into the field based on which side of the bubble Baylor, West Virginia and Cincinnati end up on.
The Bears have the toughest task on Saturday with projected No. 1 seed Houston coming to town, but they are also in the best current position of the three teams.
On the flip side, UCF and Oklahoma State are two of the worst teams in the conference, and a loss in the regular-season finale would be hugely detrimental to both Cincinnati and West Virginia.
Iowa State at Kansas State, 1:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Arizona at Kansas, 4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Texas Tech at Arizona State, 8 p.m. ET, Saturday
Utah at BYU, 10 p.m. ET, Saturday
The top four seeds in the Big 12 tournament get a bye all the way to the quarterfinals, so even the NCAA tournament locks still have something to play for on Saturday.
Texas Tech (13-5) and Arizona (13-5) have a one-game advantage over Iowa State (12-6) and BYU (12-6), and there are only three double byes up for grabs for those four teams with Houston already locked in as the No. 1 seed.
Big East
3 of 8
St. John's at Marquette, 12 p.m. ET, Saturday
St. John's (projected No. 3 seed) and Marquette (projected No. 5 seed) are the two best teams in the Big East and the only two teams from the conference currently ranked in the latest AP poll.
This would be a signature win for either team and potentially enough to move them up a seed line heading into the conference tournament.
St. John's won the first matchup at home 70-64 on Feb. 4.
Providence at Xavier, 4 p.m. ET, Saturday
Creighton and UConn join St. John's and Marquette as Big East squads that are headed to the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens to close out the regular season.
However, Xavier and Villanova are both precariously perched on the bubble, and any slip down the stretch could be the end of their tournament hopes.
The Wildcats played their final game of the season on Tuesday night, but Xavier still needs to take care of business against Providence (NET: 92) to stay alive.
Big Ten
4 of 8
Ohio State at Indiana, 3:45 p.m. ET, Saturday
Iowa at Nebraska, 12:30 p.m. ET, Sunday
Ohio State, Indiana and Nebraska make up the list of Big Ten bubble teams, with all three slotted on the No. 11 seed line in the latest Bracket Matrix as three of the last five teams in the field.
The winner of the Ohio State/Indiana game probably moves safely into the field, while the loser will need a deep run in the Big Ten tournament to have a shot.
Purdue at Illinois, 8 p.m. ET, Friday
Penn State at Wisconsin, 1 p.m. ET, Saturday
Michigan at Michigan State, 12 p.m. ET, Sunday
Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan are all currently projected for a spot on the top-four seed lines, though none appear to be legitimately in the running for a No. 1 seed.
These games could have a major impact in deciding where these teams are slotted along the Nos. 2-4 seed lines.
Mountain West
5 of 8
Colorado State at Boise State, 10 p.m. ET, Friday
Despite going 8-1 in their last nine games, Boise State is in the worst position of the Mountain West's four potential NCAA tournament teams, so Friday's regular-season finale could be a must-win game before the conference tournament tips off.
UNLV at New Mexico, 10 p.m. ET, Friday
Air Force at Utah State, 4 p.m. ET, Saturday
Nevada at San Diego State, 10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
New Mexico, Utah State and San Diego State all look like NCAA tournament teams, but there are some bad potential losses on the board if they drop their final game for the regular season. That's especially true for Utah State against Air Force (NET: 316).
SEC
6 of 8
Mississippi State at Arkansas, 12 p.m. ET, Saturday
Vanderbilt at Georgia, 12 p.m. ET, Saturday
Oklahoma at Texas, 8 p.m. ET, Saturday
Vanderbilt/Georgia and Oklahoma/Texas will both be clashes of SEC teams on the bubble, while Arkansas joins them as a team still in the mix but by no means safely in the projected field.
Vanderbilt and Georgia are currently on slightly better footing than the other three teams, so the winner of that head-to-head clash probably moves into the "safely in the field" column.
Kentucky at Missouri, 12 p.m. ET, Saturday
Ole Miss at Florida, 6 p.m. ET, Saturday
Kentucky (projected No. 3 seed) and Florida (projected No. 2 seed) are among the top teams in the nation heading into the final weekend of the regular season, but they both face tough tests in teams that are also safely in the NCAA tournament field and capable of pulling off an upset.
If Missouri or Ole Miss come away with a win, it would shake up the SEC hierarchy a bit.
Alabama at Auburn, 2:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
These two teams are both in the mix for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The winner probably clinches one, regardless of how it performs in the SEC tournament, while the loser will still be in the mix but with work left to do.
Mid-Majors with At-Large Candidates
7 of 8
AAC
South Florida at Memphis, 9 p.m. ET, Friday
Memphis is projected for a No. 7 seed in the latest Bracket Matrix, so it should be comfortably in the NCAA tournament field even with a loss to South Florida (NET: 189) on Friday.
Unless the Tigers get upset in the AAC tournament, it will be a one-bid league for the first time in the history of the conference dating back to the 2013-14 season.
A-10
Dayton at VCU, 7 p.m. ET, Friday
VCU is the best at-large candidate in the country that resides outside of the five major conferences and the Mountain West, and a win over Dayton (NET: 69) might secure their spot in the NCAA tournament field before the A-10 tournament even starts.
Big West
UC San Diego at UC Davis, 5 p.m. ET, Saturday
UC San Diego (NET: 34) is a metrics darling, and with road wins over a good UC Irvine team and Utah State to its name, it has a pair of Quad 1 victories propping up its resume. A loss to UC Davis (NET: 222) would do infinitely more harm than a win will do good as far as its at-large outlook is concerned.
Missouri Valley
Regular Season Over
With a 27-3 record and non-conference wins over Vanderbilt and Kansas State on its resume, Drake (NET: 60) has put together a strong season. However, it will still likely need to at least reach the championship game in a Missouri Valley tournament that features Bradley (NET: 79) and Northern Iowa (NET: 99) to have a chance at an at-large bid.
WCC
Regular Season Over
Saint Mary's (projected No. 6 seed) and Gonzaga (projected No. 8 seed) are both safely in the NCAA tournament field, but don't overlook San Francisco (NET: 62) and Santa Clara (NET: 52) as teams that could make a run in the WCC tournament and steal a bubble spot.
The One-Bid League Favorites
8 of 8
The only thing that matters for the one-bid leagues is winning their conference tournament, so here's a quick rundown of the current favorites in each of those 20 conferences.
America East:Ā Bryant (19-11, 13-2, NET: 151)
Atlantic Sun:Ā Lipscomb (23-9, 15-4, NET: 87)
Big Sky:Ā Northern Colorado (23-8, 15-3, NET: 124)
Big South:Ā High Point (26-5, 14-2, NET: 86)
Coastal:Ā Towson (21-10, 16-2, NET: 139)
Conference USA:Ā Liberty (23-6, 11-5, NET: 74)
Horizon:Ā Robert Morris (23-8, 15-5, NET: 153)
Ivy League: Yale (19-7, 12-1, NET: 73)
MAAC:Ā Quinnipiac (18-11, 14-4, NET: 186)
MAC:Ā Akron (23-6, 15-1, NET: 98)
MEAC:Ā Norfolk State (20-10, 10-3, NET: 187)
Northeast:Ā Central Connecticut State (23-6, 14-2, NET: 157)
Ohio Valley:Ā SE Missouri State (20-11, 15-5, NET: 183)
Patriot:Ā American (19-12, 13-5, NET: 238)
Southern:Ā Chattanooga (23-8, 15-3, NET: 114)
Southland:Ā McNeese State (25-6, 19-1, NET: 61)
SWAC:Ā Southern (19-10, 14-2, NET: 216)
Summit:Ā Omaha (19-12, 13-3, NET: 181)
Sun Belt: Arkansas State (22-9, 13-5, NET: 91)
WAC:Ā Utah Valley (21-7, 13-1, NET: 112)
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