2015 MLB All-Star Game Final Vote: Odds of Every Candidate Winning a Spot

For high-profile snubs like Clayton Kershaw and Johnny Cueto, the 2015 MLB All-Star Game final vote represents one last chance to sneak into the Midsummer Classic.

Five players from each league make up the ballot, and voting for the final All-Star gigs runs through Friday at 4 p.m. ET. Here's a look at the American League and National League hopefuls who made the cut, via MLB.com:

American League

• Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
• Yoenis Cespedes, LF, Detroit Tigers
• Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins
• Brett Gardner, LF, New York Yankees
• Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals

National League

• Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
• Jeurys Familia, RP, New York Mets
• Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
• Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

In the process of determining the odds for each of the above players to land a spot, first-half stats were certainly part of the equation. But ultimately, this is a popularity contest, which is great news for Moustakas and Kershaw.

First we'll examine the AL candidates, and then we'll delve into the NL contenders.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Xander Bogaerts' All-Star candidacy was in trouble as soon as Alcides Escobar won the fan vote as the starting shortstop.

The Boston Red Sox's Bogaerts has a superior batting average and OPS to Escobar, but he's actually not the best shortstop in the AL. That distinction belongs to Jose Iglesias, who has been on a tear in the first half. The Detroit Tigers stud leads AL shortstops in average, OBP and OPS.

There are certainly All-Star trips in Bogaerts' future, but it doesn't look like that future will be arriving just yet.

The Odds: 19 to 1

4. Brett Gardner, LF, New York Yankees

Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Brett Gardner doesn't generate a ton of buzz, but the left-handed hitter fills up the stat sheet. In the first half of the campaign, Gardner has piled up 21 doubles, nine home runs and 15 steals for the New York Yankees.

The 31-year-old has a fan in ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, who tweeted: "I never thought it would come down to Final Vote for Brett Gardner. He was my AL starting left fielder. #yankees."

It's difficult to disagree with Crasnick, as the unheralded Yankee has a higher OPS than Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon—two of the starting outfielders for the AL.

Then again, Gardner is only the second-most popular outfielder among the five final-vote candidates.

The Odds: 9 to 1

3. Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins

Jim Cowsert/Associated Press

It's a shame that AL skipper Ned Yost couldn't find a spot on the roster for Brian Dozier, because the Minnesota Twins second baseman has been a monster at the plate in 2015.

Dozier leads MLB second basemen with 46 extra-base hits, including 17 home runs. He didn't make the roster because the two second basemen who did—Jose Altuve and Jason Kipnis—have also been brilliant in the opening months of 2015.

Considering that Dozier didn't even finish in the top five in the fan vote for the starting gigs, his chances of landing in the No. 1 spot on this ballot aren't exactly looking good.

The Odds: 4 to 1

2. Yoenis Cespedes, LF, Detroit Tigers

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Yoenis Cespedes is no snub.

With 11 jacks, a .294 average and an .809 OPS, the Cuban has enjoyed a strong season, but those aren't the kind of numbers that demand an All-Star nod.

However, as the fan vote demonstrated, the Detroit Tigers left fielder is popular—really popular. Cespedes secured nearly nine million votes and placed fifth on the ballot. Based on his ability to draw votes for a starting spot, the right-handed hitter has to be considered one of the favorites to grab the final spot on the AL roster.

The Odds: 3 to 1

1. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Mike Moustakas was no match for Josh Donaldson—either on the field or at the ballot box.

Donaldson, who will start at third for the AL, posted an .894 OPS compared to Moustakas' mark of .793 and recorded more than 14 million votes, which is the most ever, per ESPN.com. But Moustakas did pretty well for himself, too. The Kansas City Royals third baseman tallied more than 12.2 million votes, which was the sixth-most among AL players.

With the Kansas City fanbase voting machine behind Moustakas, the Royals have an excellent chance of ending up with a seventh representative in the Midsummer Classic.

The Odds: 3 to 2

T4. Jeurys Famiila, RP, New York Mets

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Jeurys Familia deserves to be a member of the NL All-Star team.

Unfortunately for the Dominican, he's facing an uphill battle to earn a trip to Cincinnati.

His 1.13 ERA is second only to Trevor Rosenthal among Senior Circuit closers, and his 23 saves are tied for the fourth-highest total.

The biggest factor playing against the 25-year-old is beyond his control. Simply put, since Familia is in his first season as a ninth-inning stopper—and an electric one at that—the right-hander doesn't have a terribly prominent reputation around the game.

That's not a fair reason to exclude Familia, but with his fate now hanging in the balance of a fan vote, it looks like the New York Mets reliever will have to wait at least another year before earning his first All-Star nod.

The Odds: 19 to 1

T4. Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Carlos Martinez is in the same boat as Jeurys Familia.

His numbers say that he should be an All-Star, but his relative lack of experience and correspondingly low profile have dented his candidacy.

Martinez's shiny 2.70 ERA is just a tick higher than that of his teammate and All-Star Michael Wacha. It's also lower than that of fellow final-vote candidates Clayton Kershaw and Johnny Cueto—not to mention All-Star Madison Bumgarner.

Regrettably for Martinez, part of the All-Star equation is a popularity and seniority contest. Kershaw and Cueto have Martinez beat on both of those fronts. For now, it appears that the St. Louis Cardinals starter will have to bide his time and wait in line before earning his first All-Star selection.

The Odds: 19 to 1

3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

Ralph Freso/Getty Images

For the first time since 2012, a season in which Troy Tulowitzki played only 47 games, the Colorado Rockies shortstop is in danger of missing out on the All-Star bash.

Looking strictly at the numbers, Tulo got a bad deal, as he's posted a higher batting average, OBP, slugging percentage and OPS than either Jhonny Peralta or Brandon Crawford, the two NL shortstops on the roster.

The 30-year-old made an impressive late push to try to land a spot on the squad, as he hit .371 in his last 30 games. There's no question that Tulowitzki is one of the biggest stars in the majors, but there are a couple of aces on this ballot who will likely garner even more fan support than the right-handed hitter.

The Odds: 9 to 1

2. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds

John Minchillo/Associated Press

With a 2.84 ERA and 100 punchouts in 104.2 frames, the Cincinnati Reds' Johnny Cueto definitely has All-Star-worthy stats.

Still, the biggest factor playing in the righty's favor is that the Midsummer Classic is being played at his home stadium, Great American Ball Park.

With the ace set to become a free agent at season's end, and with trade rumors swirling, fans will have all sorts of motivation to vote Cueto into the All-Star clash. After all, it could be one of his final chances to pitch in Cincinnati, where he's spent all of his seven-plus seasons.

The Odds: 7 to 4

1. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

It just doesn't seem right to have an All-Star Game without the Los Angeles Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports summed up the exclusion best, writing, "The bottom line: Once the NL had formed its roster, someone from Major League Baseball should have said, 'No Kershaw? What the hell are we doing?'"

After all, the lefty—who has nabbed NL Cy Young honors in three of the past four seasons—is one of the faces of the game.

There's no debating that he's dropped off from his historically dominant form of a season ago, but it's not like he's been a slouch, either. Kershaw is tied for the major league lead with 147 strikeouts, and even though his ERA sits at 3.08, the advanced numbers indicate he deserves better than that. Per FanGraphs, Kershaw has posted a FIP of 2.55, which is second only to Max Scherzer in the NL.

There's always a chance Kershaw could replace an injured or unavailable starter on the roster, but his prominence within the game makes him the leading contender to win the final vote.

The Odds: 3-2

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted. AL and NL fan vote results courtesy of the MLB Communications Twitter account.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.