2025 Men's NCAA Tournament: Latest Stock Watch for Bubble Teams

As only two weeks remain in the regular season, every result can have a notable impact on a March Madness resume.

Marquee wins can solidify a strong contender into a lock, strengthen a bubble team or keep a program on the radar. Bad losses, meanwhile, can send schools tumbling out of the projected NCAA tournament field or force a bubble team into a better-make-a-deep-run-in-the-conference-tournament-or-else scenario.

No pressure!

The selections are based on results from the last two weeks of games, not a prediction of results moving forward.

All quadrant data from WarrenNolan.com and projected seeds are from BracketMatrix.com.

Up: Xavier Musketeers

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Ryan Conwell

As far as bracket projections go, nothing has changed for Xavier. It's still on the wrong side of the bubble.

However, the Musketeers are actually a part of the conversation now.

Xavier has notched four straight wins, taking down Providence, DePaul, Butler and Seton Hall. While none of those victories gave the Musketeers a meaningful bump, a loss to any of them—especially since the latter three were Quadrant 3 games—would've been problematic.

Saturday's clash at home against Creighton, a projected tourney-bound team, is a major opportunity for Xavier to bolster its at-large appeal.

Steady: North Carolina Tar Heels

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RJ Davis

The bright side is North Carolina, exactly like Xavier, has rattled off four consecutive wins.

In the Tar Heels' situation, though, that simply means the status quo. They already held a place on the bubble, and none of those wins—opposite Syracuse, North Carolina State, Virginia and Florida State—registered as a high-quality result.

As a result, UNC is sitting in the same spot.

North Carolina's 1-10 record against Quad 1 competition is a big negative on the resume, and its last regular-season opportunity to bolster that record is when rival Duke comes to Chapel Hill.

Barring a deep run in the ACC tournament, the Heels desperately need to upset one of the nation's best teams.

Down: Georgia Bulldogs

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Asa Newell

The troubles began in mid-February.

They have hardly stopped.

Georgia headed into SEC action with a 12-1 record and picked up victories over Kentucky and Oklahoma to hit 14-2. Since then, however, the Dawgs have endured a pair of four-game losing streaks on a plunge to the wrong side of the cutline.

The latest Bracket Matrix update included UGA on only 14 of 116 projections ahead of Monday's critical upset of Florida.

Closing the campaign with a couple of wins against the trio of Texas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt remains a necessity.

Up: Indiana Hoosiers

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Indiana is a prime example of impactful marquee wins.

After reaching 13-3 in early January, the Hoosiers lost seven of their next eight contests. During that slide, news broke that IU coach Mike Woodson would be stepping down following the season.

Indiana, once solidly in the projected field, had steadily slipped to barely even appearing on Bracket Matrix entries.

And then, the Hoosiers beat Michigan State. They lost at tourney-bound UCLA but responded with an emphatic win over rival Purdue, adding a pair of much-needed Quadrant 1 triumphs to their resume.

The upsets have ensured IU remains a top contender on the very fringe of the bubble.

Steady: Arkansas Razorbacks

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John Calipari

Once again, the difference between "up" and "steady" is variable.

Arkansas understandably fell on the road to Texas A&M and Auburn—a couple of top-10 teams nationally—to stay right on the edge of the bubble.

Last weekend, however, the Razorbacks snagged a valuable win over Missouri for a fourth Quad 1 victory.

Since the final stretch includes Texas, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, Arkansas still has several chances to bolster its resume. Only a loss to South Carolina would legitimately hurt the Hogs, considering the three others are projected tourney teams.

Arkansas is soundly on the cutline, but a 3-1 finish to the regular season could get John Calipari's team awfully close to "lock" territory.

Down: SMU Mustangs

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Chuck Harris

Ordinarily, a 20-7 record with an 11-5 mark in the ACC would be very appealing. Probably not quite a sure thing, but awfully close to it.

Well, that's not reality in 2025.

In a down season for the conference, SMU is starting to fade. Not only did the Mustangs fall to bubble-dweller Wake Forest, they missed what might've been their last chance at a Quad 1 win during the regular season in a loss to Clemson.

SMU simply must topple Cal, Stanford, Syracuse and Florida State in these last two weeks—particularly because no member of that quartet is a projected tourney team.

In all likelihood, SMU's postseason hopes are contingent on making, and maybe even winning, the ACC tournament.