6 NFL Free Agents Who Carry the Most Risk and Reward in 2025 Offseason

NFL free agency, which will unofficially open with the legal-contact window on March 10, is rapidly approaching. In the coming weeks, teams will attempt to create cap space, assess their most critical needs and identify top free-agent targets who can potentially address them.

Unfortunately, building a strong roster isn't as simple as finding players to pay and handing out the most money during the offseason. As is the case during the NFL draft, some players, even potentially great ones, carry huge risks.

Last offseason, for example, the Atlanta Falcons handed a four-year, $160 million contract to quarterback Kirk Cousins, even though he was coming off of a torn Achilles. Cousins played well for part of the season but slumped late and was eventually replaced by rookie Michael Penix Jr.

Atlanta now faces the challenge of trying to move Cousins or justifying a $40 million cap hit for its backup quarterback. The Falcons' need for a QB made Cousins worth a gamble, but the payoff wasn't what the team had hoped to see.

Like Cousins, these six impending free agents can potentially solve key roster holes. Because of factors like past production, career consistency, projected contract value and injury history, they could also be viewed as regrettable additions a year from now.

Mekhi Becton, G, Philadelphia Eagles

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Mekhi Becton experienced a wonderful redemption arc in 2024. The 11th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Becton struggled early in his career with the New York Jets. Injuries limited him to 15 games in his first three seasons—he missed all of 2022 with a kneecap fracture—and he never played particularly well at tackle.

This past season, however, the Philadelphia Eagles signed Becton, moved him to guard, and watched him thrive. The 25-year-old finished the year graded as the league's 21st overall guard by Pro Football Focus. Given his size (6'7", 363 lbs), age and most recent production, Becton figures to be coveted in free agency.

Becton has a projected market value of $10.2 million annually.

The upside to signing Becton is tremendous. If he really has found his calling as a guard, he could help solidify an offensive interior for the next decade. He's shown that he can play at a high level and now carries Super Bowl experience.

However, Becton's poor play before 2024 and his noteworthy injury history can't be ignored. Yes, he was mostly healthy this past season and played extremely well. However, he was surrounded by a top-notch offensive line and a masterful line coach in Philly's Jeff Stoutland.

Coaching matters, and there's no guarantee that Becton won't regress under the tutelage of another staff. The risk of signing a below-average lineman who can't stay on the field is very real.

Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings

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This is the obvious one. Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is the biggest risk-reward player headed to the open market and the only player on this list ranked inside the top 20 on the latest B/R free agent big board.

Darnold was ranked highly because of his positional value and the highlights he exhibited during the 2024 season. Like Becton, Darnold had an impressive bounce-back campaign. He went 14-4 as a starter overall (including playoffs), posted a 102.5 passer rating and made the Pro Bowl.

For quarterback-needy teams, Darnold has the potential to solidify the quarterback position for the next 10-12 years. He'll only turn 28 in June and has the athletic upside of a perennial Pro Bowler.

If the Vikings don't retain Darnold—which they might, as 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy continues to rehab from knee surgery—the veteran should command a hefty price tag.

Darnold has a projected contract value of $40.1 million annually.

Signing Darnold to, say, a four-year, $160 million contract would be risky for a couple of reasons. What the USC product put on film prior to 2024 wasn't great. In starting stints with the Jets and Carolina Panthers, he posted a 21-34 record and finished only one campaign with a passer rating above 85.

Darnold's 2024 season may have been the product of great coaching and a supporting cast headlined by Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones. Darnold may need to land with a playoff-ready squad to replicate that success.

The other concern is that, even with a great team around him, Darnold struggled to handle pressure in his last two games. In losses in the regular-season finale and the Wild-Card Round, he was sacked 11 times, threw just one touchdown pass and saw Minnesota outscored 81-43.

On one hand, Darnold could follow in the steps of Baker Mayfield, who has produced back-to-back strong seasons despite changes to his supporting cast and at offensive coordinator. On the other, he might earn himself a Daniel Jones-level payday and provide his next team with a Daniel Jones-level of disappointment.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans

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At 31 and coming off of a torn ACL, Houston Texans receiver Stefon Diggs is unlikely to earn a long-term contract in free agency. Even on a one- or two-year deal, however, he's equally unlikely to be a true bargain.

Diggs has a projected market value of $13.5 million annually.

Though Diggs spent most of his career with the Vikings and Buffalo Bills as a No. 1 receiver, teams will probably value him as a high-end second option in 2025. That's the role the Texans envisioned when they traded for him last offseason, and it's the role he'll likely hold if he returns to Houston for another go.

"We enjoyed having Stef in the building, so the door is always open," Texans general manager Nick Caserio told Sports Radio 610 (h/t ProFootballTalk's Josh Alper).

If Diggs, who suffered the injury in late October, is healthy to start the season, he could potentially thrive as a team's No. 2 receiver. He logged 496 yards and three touchdowns in eight games playing opposite Nico Collins in 2024, and he had six consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns before that.

Of course, there's no guarantee that Diggs will be healthy, can stay healthy and won't see an age-related decline.

If things go well, Diggs could help bolster an offense as a high-end complementary receiver. If they don't, he could cost a team a sizeable chunk of cap space while potentially leaving that team with a void on the perimeter.

Will Fries, G, Indianapolis Colts

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Will Fries is another risk-reward guard, though for entirely different reasons than Becton.

A 2021 seventh-round pick of the Indianapolis Colts, Fries entered the NFL with adequate size (6'6", 205 lbs) but with a middling athletic profile.

"Fries is an underwhelming athlete on tape who operates with efficient footwork in his vertical pass set to consistently reach his landmarks," Brandon Thorn of the B/R Scouting Department wrote ahead of the 2021 draft.

The 26-year-old has done exceedingly well to find success with strong instincts and technique. He became a reliable starter by Year 2 and was tremendous in his five 2024 starts.

Pro Football Focus graded Fries as the league's fourth overall guard this past season.

While Fries doesn't possess the athletic upside of Becton, he figures to be a popular target of guard-needy teams—he has a projected market value of $14.1 million annually. Considering guards like Landon Dickerson and Chris Lindstrom have recently topped $20 million annually, that may actually be a low projection.

The concern with Fries is that his 2024 campaign was ended after five games by a fractured tibia that required immediate surgery. Though it wasn't the sort of injury that should raise durability concerns, teams will have a hard time knowing how healthy Fries is and how quickly he can return to pre-injury form.

Fries' limited window of top-tier play adds to his risk level—PFF didn't rank him as a top-32 guard ahead of the 2024 season. Will he be the league's next perennial All-Pro, or did he simply leave a tremendous lasting impression before a gruesome leg injury cut his season short?

Depending on the answer, a team might land a true offensive building block by signing Fries to a multiyear deal. It could also overpay for an injured player who has clearly outshined his draft status but who isn't truly elite.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

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At first blush, Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris might seem like anything but a risk. The 26-year-old is a physical and durable runner who has topped 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of his four pro seasons.

However, the risks with Harris are two-fold. For one, he's been a compiler in Pittsburgh and not a particularly dynamic ball-carrier. While Harris has never fallen short of 1,000 rushing yards in a season, he's averaged just 3.9 yards per carry for his career.

Now, Harris' lack of explosive consistency may be the product of a mediocre Steelers offensive line. It's worth noting, however, that backfield mate Jaylen Warren has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over the past three years in Pittsburgh.

Secondly, Harris has seen an extensive workload to this point. He's never missed a game in the NFL, but he has logged 1,277 touches during the regular season. That has come after he had a whopping 460 carries over his final two seasons at Alabama.

A team signing Harris might be rewarded with a back who brings Derrick Henry-like durability despite a heavy workload. It might even get a more efficient version of Harris if it can support him with an offensive line more effective than Pittsburgh's.

The risk in signing Harris is that he could also follow in the footsteps of Todd Gurley, who shined as a high-volume back early in his career but quickly faded as his workload took a toll.

Through their first four seasons, Gurley actually saw 48 fewer touches than Harris.

The cost to gamble on Harris will be high, as his projected market value is $9.2 million annually. That would make Harris the league's seventh-highest-paid running back in terms of yearly value, and it makes him a true risk-reward player in free agency.

Haason Reddick, EDGE, New York Jets

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Pass-rushers always have value in free agency, and Haason Reddick will be no exception in 2025. Despite coming off of a disappointing campaign with the Jets, Reddick has a projected market value of $11.7 million annually.

That's a more than fair price for an above-average sack artist, which Reddick has been in the past. A Pro Bowler for the Eagles in 2022 and 2023, he recorded 27 sacks and 76 quarterback pressures over that two-year span.

The problem is that Reddick has only reached double-digit sacks in four of his eight pro seasons and is coming off of the most disappointing campaign of his career. He held out for nearly half of 2024 while angling for a new contract that he didn't receive. He logged just one sack and seven pressures across 10 games for the Jets.

Now a full year removed from his last productive season, Reddick will also turn 31 in September. Pass-rushers don't always hit the proverbial cliff in their 30s, but it does happen.

Matthew Judon, for example, had a 15.5 sack season with the New England Patriots in 2022. He suffered a torn bicep in 2023 and then recorded just 5.5 sacks with the Atlanta Falcons in 2024.

The Jets underwhelmed overall last season, and Reddick might return to Pro Bowl form with a new team. Of course, his career might also have peaked with the Eagles two years ago. Unfortunately, a team won't know which version of the pass-rusher it is getting until Reddick is already under contract.

*Contract and market information via Spotrac.