Predicting the Best 2024-25 CBB Teams Who'll Crash and Burn to Miss March Madness

With 31 of the 68 spots in the 2025 NCAA tournament decided by automatic bid, there are only 37 at-large berths available when the field is set, and a handful of tournament-caliber teams always wind up on the outside looking in each year.

Ahead we've taken a crack at predicting the seven best teams that will miss March Madness this year.

Whether it's a tough remaining schedule, a lack of marquee wins, a troubling recent stretch or a simple numbers game, each of these teams faces a steep uphill battle.

There's still time for resumes to be improved, and a conference tournament win would make it a moot point. But right now, these seven schools, presented in alphabetical order, could ultimately be on their way to the NIT.

Note: NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking in parentheses. Notable wins written in italics indicate a road game, while underlined games indicate a neutral site.

Boise State Broncos (48)

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Tyson Degenhart

Record: 17-8, 9-5 in Mountain West

Quadrant 1 Wins: Saint Mary's (20), Clemson (26)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Nevada (69), UNLV (108)

Q1: 2-5, Q2: 2-2, Q3: 4-0, Q4: 8-1

Bad Losses: Boston College (225)

The Mountain West sent six teams to the NCAA tournament a year ago, including a Boise State Broncos squad dancing for the third year in a row, though they lost to Colorado State in one of the First Four games.

With star forward Tyson Degenhart (17.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG) back for another year and San Jose State transfer Alvaro Cardenas (11.9 PPG, 6.7 APG) leading the Mountain West in assists, the offense has some firepower.

They picked up quality wins over Clemson (Nov. 17) and Saint Mary's (Dec. 14) during non-conference play, but they have gone a combined 0-4 against Utah State, San Diego State and New Mexico—the three Mountain West teams current in the projected NCAA tournament field in the latest Bracket Matrix.

A 20-point loss to the Aztecs on Saturday was a major blow to their resume, and they will look to rebound at home against New Mexico on Wednesday. A loss in that game might be the final straw.

BYU Cougars (36)

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Egor Demin

Record: 17-8, 8-6 in Big 12

Quadrant 1 Wins: Baylor (28), West Virginia (44), UCF (75)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Cincinnati (45), Arizona State (65), Kansas State (73), Colorado (104)

Q1: 3-6, Q2: 4-2, Q3: 4-0, Q4: 6-0

Bad Losses: None

Is a home victory over Baylor an impressive enough marquee win for the BYU Cougars to sneak into the NCAA tournament field?

The Cougars rank No. 15 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, ranking among the NCAA leaders in two-point percentage (58.7%, ninth), made threes per game (10.4, 14th) and assists per game (16.8, 21st).

However, they are lacking on the defensive end of the floor, and have gone 4-8 in games where they allow more than 70 points, compared to a perfect 13-0 record when the opposition scores fewer than 70.

They still have to play at home against Kansas (Feb. 18) and on the road against Arizona (Feb. 22) and Iowa State (March 4) among their final six games. That gives them a chance to boost their resume, but could also be what pushes them out of the projected field if they can't pull off an upset.

Ohio State Buckeyes (30)

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Bruce Thornton

Record: 15-11, 7-8 in Big Ten

Quadrant 1 Wins: Purdue (13), Maryland (14), Kentucky (17), Texas (31)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Iowa (64), Penn State (78), Minnesota (94)

Q1: 4-8, Q2: 3-3, Q3: 2-0, Q4: 6-0

Bad Losses: None

After missing the NCAA tournament in back-to-back years, the Ohio State Buckeyes were ranked No. 8 in the Big Ten preseason media poll.

The return of leading scorer Bruce Thornton (17.3 PPG, 4.4 APG) and immediate impact of 4-star freshman John Mobley Jr. (13.4 PPG, 66 threes, 41.8% 3PT) has given the Buckeyes a strong offensive attack, and they also rank No. 33 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency.

On the flip side, they have not posted a winning streak of longer than three games the entire season and have a 6-7 record over their last 13 games following a disappointing 86-83 loss to Michigan at home on Sunday.

A West Coast trip against UCLA and USC awaits among their remaining five games, and that has tripped up a handful of Big Ten contenders this year. With 11 losses already on their resume, they might need to go at least 4-1 over their final five games and make a deep run in the Big Ten tournament to punch their ticket.

Oklahoma Sooners (52)

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Jalon Moore

Record: 16-9, 3-9 in SEC

Quadrant 1 Wins: Arizona (9), Michigan (19), Louisville (27), Arkansas (42)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Vanderbilt (41), Providence (83)

Q1: 4-7, Q2: 2-1, Q3: 3-1 Q4: 7-0

Bad Losses: LSU (82)

The Oklahoma Sooners went 13-0 during non-conference play and rolled into their first season of SEC action as the No. 12 team in the nation with wins over Arizona, Michigan and Louisville as part of an impressive early resume.

That might not be enough to prop up a disappointing conference slate.

They are currently riding a four-game losing streak, during which time they lost to Auburn, Tennessee and Missouri by a combined 70 points before suffering a Quad 3 loss to LSU at home on Saturday.

Their next five games are all against ranked teams before their regular-season finale on the road against a Texas team also fighting for position on the bubble, and with zero momentum their NCAA tournament hopes could be buried before they get to that matchup with the Longhorns.

SMU Mustangs (40)

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Kevin Miller

Record: 19-6, 10-4 in ACC

Quadrant 1 Wins: None

Quadrant 2 Wins: Pittsburgh (51), LSU (82), Washington State (98), Virginia (105), NC State (124)

Q1: 0-4, Q2: 5-2, Q3: 9-0, Q4: 5-0

Bad Losses: None

Has a 10-4 record to start ACC play ever not made a team a lock for the NCAA tournament?

Take that as a clear indication of just how far down the conference is this year, with only Duke (No. 1 seed), Louisville (No. 7 seed) and Clemson (No. 7 seed) currently projected for an NCAA tournament berth in the latest Bracket Matrix.

The SMU Mustangs have taken care of business against lesser competition during conference play, but they were blown out by Duke (89-62) and Louisville (98-73), with their game against Clemson coming up on Feb. 22.

The Mustangs do not have a signature win and rank No. 104 in NET strength of schedule, so even if they beat the Tigers at home this weekend, it might not be enough for them to build a compelling tournament case.

Vanderbilt Commodores (41)

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Jason Edwards

Record: 17-8, 5-7 in SEC

Quadrant 1 Wins: Tennessee (5), Kentucky (17)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Texas (31), Nevada (69), TCU (76), LSU (82)

Q1: 2-7, Q2: 4-1, Q3: 3-0, Q4: 8-0

Bad Losses: None

The Vanderbilt Commodores have not been to the NCAA tournament since 2017, but looked to be trending in that direction earlier this year when wins over Tennessee and Kentucky vaulted them to No. 24 in the Jan. 27 AP poll.

However, they have gone just 1-4 in their last five games, with the lone win coming at home against a Texas team that also resides squarely on the bubble.

The biggest knock is their lack of a signature road win, though they still have a chance to rectify that glaring hole in their resume in upcoming games against Kentucky (Feb. 19) and Texas A&M (Feb. 26).

There is a cluster of teams in the middle of the SEC pack vying for bubble spots, and Vanderbilt might end up being the best of the bunch that winds up on the outside looking in when the NCAA tournament field is announced.

VCU Rams (34)

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Max Shulga

Record: 19-5, 10-2 in A-10

Quadrant 1 Wins: Dayton (74)

Quadrant 2 Wins: Colorado State (70), Saint Joseph's (85), Rhode Island (114), George Washington (117), Loyola-Chicago (128)

Q1: 1-1, Q2: 5-3, Q3: 2-0, Q4: 11-1

Bad Losses: Seton Hall (212)

With seniors Max Shulga (15.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.9 APG), Joseph Bamisile (15.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Zeb Jackson (10.7 PPG) all back as key contributors from last year's 24-win team and UT-Arlington transfer Phillip Russell (11.6 PPG, 53 threes) adding some additional outside shooting, VCU was picked to win the Atlantic-10 in the conference's preseason poll.

The Rams (No. 34) lead the conference in NET ranking by a wide margin over George Mason (No. 63) and Dayton (No. 74), but it's the Patriots who sit atop the conference standings with a 12-1 record in A-10 play.

VCU and George Mason will go head-to-head on Feb. 22, and a loss in that game could knock the Rams off the bubble, forcing them to snag the automatic bid with a win in the A-10 tournament.

With NET strength of schedule that ranks No. 151 in the nation, and a signature win against Dayton that is right on the fringe of slipping to Quad 2, there simply might not be enough meat on the bone when it comes time to dissect the Rams resume.