Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 13's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice

Fantasy baseball players know the foundations of a successful trade by now.

Midway through the season, team needs often trump overall value. Benefiting from a move doesn't always necessitate winning the deal. Unfortunately, tailoring recommendations for every manager wouldn't work. (But seriously, Jim, you need some more steals, buddy.)

Instead, owners must identify which picks are and aren't applicable for their specific squads. These players are far from "must-buys" or "must-sells," but they present chances for value at a macro level. Examine their market price while the opportunity remains available.

Buy Low: Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers

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Either healthy or awful all year, Jonathan Lucroy is hitting .245/.295/.314 with one homer and no steals. With his value sinking to its nadir, see if his owner will jettison a top preseason catcher for pennies.

Since returning from the disabled list with a toe injury, Lucroy is hitting .289 with a 28.7 line-drive percentage. The power remains nonexistent, but that was never his game while serving as a top option over the last two seasons.

Along with better health, Lucroy should turn the corner once he starts hitting lefties. A career .304 hitter against southpaws has gone a baffling 3-for-30 against them this season, a small sample size which he should repair.   

Due to his lack of power, don't go overboard with any offers. Acquiring him is only prudent as a true buy-low that doesn't cost any significant assets. It's worth a spin for someone playing catcher roulette.

Sell High: Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

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Breakout candidate Nolan Arenado certainly broke out. There's nothing far-fetched about a 24-year-old finding his groove, especially when that position player calls Coors Field home.

Still, nobody expected this power from Arenado, or any modern baseball player short of Giancarlo Stanton. Buoyed by a trio of two-homer games to close out June, he has clubbed a career-high 24 blasts in 77 games. He previously hit 28 homers in 244 MLB contests.

Coors can't even take the credit, as he has amassed 15 dingers on the road. Arenado owners should celebrate a star soaring before their eyes, but they might want to then test out his trading value.

The third baseman leads MLB with 68 RBI, but nobody knows what opportunities will arise during the second half. The law of averages will even out that crooked tally.

While Arenado has drastically increased his fly-ball percentage every year with Colorado, he also has homered on 20 percent of his fliers, an unsustainable rate for a full season. He's not a fluke, but he also isn't a first-round superstar who will push for 40-plus homers.

Buy Low: Chris Carter, 1B/OF, Houston Astros

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Chris Carter's atrocious start is nothing out of the ordinary, but that doesn't make it any easier to endure a prominent draftee batting below the Mendoza Line. If it's any consolation, he did the same thing last year.

The all-or-nothing Houston Astros slugger fared even worse during 2014's opening three months:  

2014 (before July 1): .184/.267/.406, 15 HR, 30 RBI, 33.2 strikeout percentage

2015 (before July 1): .197/.315/.402, 14 HR, 38 RBI, 34.1 strikeout percentage

Over the closing three months, Carter hit .264 with 24 homers, fueled by a stellar August during which he accrued a dozen dingers despite racking up 39 strikeouts. This doesn't mean he's sure to catch fire again, but it's a helpful reminder of why everyone drafted him.

If he heats up, impatient owners will regret giving up. When a guy like Carter is off, he's borderline unplayable in five-by-five formats. When he finds his mojo, he's a massive game-changer.

Sell High: Dan Haren, SP, Miami Marlins

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According to Fox Sports' Jon Morosi, the Miami Marlins are fielding offers for Dan Haren and Mat Latos. Haren's owners should follow suit and cash out on Haren if it's not already too late.

The 34-year-old has defied all expectations this season, registering a 3.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Yet there are too many red flags for him to keep serving as a knockoff Jordan Zimmermann clone.

Only four qualified starters have registered a lower batting average on balls in play (BABIP) than Haren's .247. This is highly unusual from someone with an 86-mile-per-hour average fastball velocity and 31.9 ground-ball percentage. 

Homers have plagued him in the past, but he surrendered six in the spacious Marlins Park this season, guiding the veteran to a 2.98 ERA. If Miami trades him, that home advantage vanishes. Depending on his landing spot, he likely reverts to an ERA near or above 4.00. 

Owners aren't going to line up for Haren's services, but perhaps he can land a Clay Buchholz, Jose Quintana or even Latos.

Buy Low: Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

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This is a first. A sell-high has transitioned into a buy-low, blending two different timelines into chaos.

Nine starts into the season, Michael Wacha was 7-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.05 WHIP—yet he had only compiled 35 punchouts through 57.1 innings, a telltale sign for incoming regression. That ERA was doomed for a major course correction.

A month later, course corrected. Wacha's ERA has risen to 2.77 after allowing 17 runs through 36.2 innings. But those strikeouts we wanted before? Here they are; he has snagged 39 of them during that stretch.

In April and May, he recorded ERAs of 2.42 and 2.17 despite fielding independent pitching (FIP) marks of 3.66 and 3.78, respectively. He received his comeuppance in June, posting a 3.77 ERA despite a 1.92 FIP.

If someone simply observes those rough starts as the bottom falling out, trick them into mistakenly thinking they're the side pulling the fast one. Wacha sports a career 7.88 K/9, so the strikeouts should keep climbing. With the whiffs piling up, he's a legit No. 2 or No. 3 starter rather than the early mirage.

Sell High: Joakim Soria, RP, Detroit Tigers

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Baseball is funny game, especially when invoking sample sizes from relief pitchers. Joakim Soria has improved last year's 3.25 ERA to 2.56 despite a precipitous decline in strikeouts.

A year removed from registering a 9.74 K/9 and 2.09 FIP, the 31-year-old closer now holds a 7.39 K/9 and 4.79 FIP. Not only has his BABIP decreased 78 points to .212, he has stranded every single baserunner a year after letting 37.5 percent of them score. 

Because of those fortuitous trends, he has surrendered only nine earned runs despite relinquishing seven homers. Luckily for him, six were solo shots.

Soria has never allowed more than seven long balls in a single season, so he shouldn't keep getting trounced out of the park. But his career-low 8.6 swinging-strike percentage is a concerning rate for the veteran reliever. After witnessing Joe Nathan's downward spiral last year, the Detroit Tigers know better than anyone that closers don't last forever.

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.  

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