Young NFL Players Already on the Hot Seat Heading into 2015 Season

During the 2011 lockout, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell attempted to refute commonly cited statistics detailing the average length of an NFL career. That specific discussion is for another time. Like, say, four years ago.

But an interesting fact about the advantage that first-round picks hold emerged out of Goodell’s information presented to San Diego Chargers season ticket-holders in April 2011. And it's still relevant every summer when the annual brawling for playing time and roster spots resumes.

During that clawing, first-round picks are, predictably, rewarded with more time to develop after a high investment was made to obtain their services. That is why the average length of a first-round pick’s career is 9.3 years, according to an NFL Communications press release.

Yet every year first-round busts and potential busts tug at that average, threatening to bring it down.

The NFL is a cold place even for the most privileged group of young players, with opportunities fleeting and patience thin. More than just one job is at stake if an early pick flounders, as coaches and general managers risk unemployment too. 

Each summer a new group of once promising prospects find themselves desperately clinging to a roster spot. Let's look at 10 players battling for either meaningful playing time or their careers and who they'll have to fight off once training camps open.

Buffalo Bills Quarterback EJ Manuel

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills decided everyone else was wrong in 2013. The draft that year was widely viewed as a fine time to run away from every quarterback in the first round. You know that feeling of 5:00 p.m. on a Friday? Yeah, that should have been the Bills back on April 25, 2013.

Instead they traded back in the first round and selected EJ Manuel at No. 16, making that bold decision even while Geno Smith’s flaming spiral continued. Smith's fall was the ultimate statement on the difference between how the Bills viewed that quarterback class compared to every other team.

Like Manuel, Smith will also try to correct his career death spin in 2015. He waited until the 39th overall pick to hear his name, and only three quarterbacks came off the board in the first three rounds.

Picks fueled by desperation often end in shattered dreams, and Manuel is quickly reaching that conclusion. He lost his starting job to Kyle Orton in 2014 after averaging just 167.6 passing yards per game and 6.4 per attempt. He completed 76 passes, and 63 came within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. Manuel was also woeful on deep passes, connecting on a lowly 27.8 percent of his 20-plus-yard throws.

That last part will doom your career in any offense. But a lack of deep accuracy is especially strong poison with the Bills after they paid a significant price to trade up during the 2014 draft for wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

Challengers 

This is where the depression begins. The Bills traded for Matt Cassel this offseason, and he’s well into the journeyman placeholder stage of his career. Sheer experience will likely give him the Week 1 starting job, though his leash will be slightly longer than that weird one your cat wears and hates.

But forget Cassel, because the presence of a third man in Buffalo’s offseason quarterback battle dome says everything you need to know about its faith in Manuel. The Bills also signed Tyrod Taylor, who spent four seasons as Joe Flacco’s backup with the Baltimore Ravens. He’s made mostly garbage-time appearances while attempting 35 career passes.

Yet that hasn’t stopped Taylor from getting equal first-team practice snaps so far this offseason, according to ProFootballTalk, and therefore he's very much part of the quarterback competition.

Is there hope?

There’s hope for any Bills quarterback right now with the wealth of offensive talent elsewhere—especially running back LeSean McCoy and wide receiver Percy Harvin, who can both quickly turn short, easy passes into long gains.

But for Manuel specifically, his vision and decision making need to improve before the 25-year-old can take any steps forward. Right now he’s destined for permanent backup duty.

Dallas Cowboys Cornerback Morris Claiborne

Scott Kane/Associated Press

Dallas Cowboys cornerback Morris Claiborne tore his patellar tendon in 2014, which is one of the most devastating injuries in a sport full of them. But even that may not be the most pressing issue that is potentially set to derail his career.

No, the real problem is that when healthy he’s a moving punching bag. Calling Claiborne a coverage liability and a draft bust after the Cowboys traded up to take him at sixth overall in 2012 is only the beginning. Prior to his injury, the 25-year-old had reached the point where putting him on the field in any capacity was dangerous.

Claiborne lost his starting job in 2014 to Orlando Scandrick after needing only three games to allow 225 yards in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. That included two 50-plus-yard receptions and 108 yards against the St. Louis Rams in Week 3.

He’s a mess, but the $2.6 million that Claiborne is guaranteed in 2015 means at worst he’ll keep a roster spot. But how far will he be down the depth chart once (if?) the former LSU standout returns to full health?

Challengers

The Cowboys used their 2015 first-round pick on Byron Jones, the 196-pound cornerback who recorded eight interceptions and 21 passes defensed over his four college seasons at Connecticut. It was an inevitable pick with Claiborne injured and generally awful and fellow cornerback Brandon Carr also struggling (849 yards allowed in coverage during the 2014 season, per PFF).

Jones will eventually start alongside Scandrick, and the No. 4 spot is the highest a healthy Claiborne will climb on the depth chart.

Is there hope?

Claiborne’s youth makes it hard to confidently dismiss him forever. But hope has taken a serious beating with all his staggering and flailing. He’s logged only one full season, and it came in 2012 when he still finished with a passer rating allowed of 107.8, per PFF.

Oakland Raiders Running Back Trent Richardson

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

Trent Richardson’s problem isn’t speed or size. It’s not fumbling or a lack of opportunities.

Instead, his flaw is of the fatal variety for any NFL running back. He has the vision of a bat, and his habit of running into the hind regions of his offensive linemen while missing an obvious running lane has made for great comedy.

That core issue is why a running back once deemed worthy of the third overall pick is now on his third team. Over four seasons he has stutter-stepped and backpedaled to a career average of 3.3 yards per carry.

The Oakland Raiders signed him after the Indianapolis Colts finally cast him aside. His age is the only reason he still has a fingertip grasp on a career. He’ll turn 25 in July, which keeps faith alive, along with reaching thoughts that he could still make a somewhat meaningful contribution. That’s why the Raiders took a low cost, low-risk flier on him.

Challengers

If the Raiders make the wise decision, Richardson will only be depth while buried behind Latavius Murray and Roy Helu.

Murray saw little time until Week 14 during his rookie season in 2014. Then after getting an opportunity, he quickly showcased his explosive one-cut speed. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry, and his first NFL season was highlighted by a 112-yard rushing outburst against the Kansas City Chiefs on only four carries.

Richardson will push him for touches. But Murray is ready for a larger workload and deserves it too. Then there’s Helu, an offseason signing who slides in nicely as a third-down pass-catching back after his single-season high of 477 receiving yards in 2014.

Is there hope?

If Richardson isn’t lost behind Murray and Helu, then the best-case scenario is being on the low end of a platoon for early-down touches.

A fundamental vision issue will keep his ceiling low and his career short.

Tennessee Titans Wide Receiver Justin Hunter

Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

Since 2012 the Tennessee Titans have held six top-40 draft picks and have used half of them on wide receivers.

The most recent was 2015 second-round pick Dorial Green-Beckham, who brings equal risk and potential reward. The most successful has been Kendall Wright, who’s only a year removed from finishing seventh overall in receptions (94) even while catching passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jake Locker, two replacement-level quarterbacks.

Then there’s Justin Hunter, a 24-year-old who’s still oozing with athleticism, but his production has slowed to an inconsistent drip.

During his rookie season Hunter teased us with the sort of promise that immediately solidified a spot on every offseason breakout candidate list. Sure, he caught a mere 18 passes in 2013 while playing a limited role and appearing on the field for only 36.4 percent of the Titans’ offensive snaps, per PFF. But that’s all he needed to accumulate 354 receiving yards, with Hunter’s speed and spider-like catch radius resulting in two 50-plus yard receptions.

More downfield streaking was an obvious expectation in 2014 with an increased role. Between Wright and Hunter, it seemed a promising young foundation was finally in place for the Titans at wide receiver.

But instead of spiking numbers in the standard receiver categories that produce football smiles (receptions, yards and touchdowns), Hunter’s 2014 season ended in a pile of drops. He dropped seven passes on 66 targets, per PFF, and more opportunities with a higher snap count resulted in only a moderate climb to 498 receiving yards.

Now the quarterback situation has improved in Tennessee, but so has the wide receiver talent set to challenge Hunter.

Challengers

Hunter is a large man at 6’4” and 203 pounds. But Green-Beckham is much larger at 6’5” and 237 pounds.

Green-Beckham is the bulkier version of Hunter, and yet the two posted nearly identical 40-yard dash times at their NFL Scouting Combine appearances. Hunter clocked in at 4.44 seconds, while Green-Beckham pushed all that extra weight and dangling arms across the line in 4.49 seconds.

That’s what prompted NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock to give the ultimate praise, saying Green-Beckham "looks like a young Randy Moss." If he can keep his off-field behavior under control, the rookie could quickly steal snaps from Hunter and line up opposite Wright as the Titans’ No. 2 receiver.

Is there hope?

Sure, there’s always hope when a young receiver has been blessed with athletic gifts and the physical frame to win contested balls. But although Green-Beckham will be his primary challenger, Hunter’s search for targets goes beyond him.

Veterans Hakeem Nicks and Harry Douglas have also joined the Titans roster, which means Hunter could be facing a final chance to build on his rookie promise.

St. Louis Rams Wide Receiver Tavon Austin

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

It seems like a foggy memory now, but St. Louis Rams wide receiver Tavon Austin was once relevant. Yes, in the long ago days of 2013 he was more than just a kick-returning speedster and more than a human gadget.

He went beyond just mattering and needing constant defensive attention. Briefly, Austin was a looming threat to bust open a play for 50 or so yards.

He did just that twice in 2013 during a Week 10 win over the Indianapolis Colts, breaking free for 57- and 81-yard receptions in addition to a 98-yard punt return when he went into full joystick mode. His 138 yards that day on only two receptions confirmed what we already knew: If Austin is given even a sliver of space, he can quickly go about the business of removing defenders from their undergarments while weaving and spinning downfield.

But that sliver became a problem, so much of one that Austin’s production over 15 games in 2014 barely eclipsed that one booming week the previous season. The creative trickery needed to get him touches largely ended in nothingness: 242 receiving yards and an average of only 7.8 per catch.

Like other naturally shifty kick returners who struggle with the basic principles of route running (here’s lookin’ at you, Cordarrelle Patterson), Austin demands a concerted effort from an offensive coordinator to engineer touches in space. Former Rams coordinator Brian Schottenheimer gave up, and after Week 7 in 2014, Austin didn’t record more than two receptions during a single game.

New coordinator Frank Cignetti gushed about Austin’s apparently improved route running during offseason work while speaking to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That needs to translate onto the field when it matters, because an offensive weapon who needs an entire package crafted around his specific needs isn’t much of a weapon at all.

Challengers 

No one on the Rams’ wide receiver depth chart can duplicate Austin’s skill set. Heck, few around the NFL can make that claim.

But until he develops into more than just a return man who can sometimes break loose after the catch, Austin will remain at best the third offensive option in St. Louis, likely falling even lower when running back Todd Gurley is healthy.

The Rams re-signed Kenny Britt after he accounted for 36 percent of the receiving yards generated by the team's wideouts. Austin, meanwhile, finished at a lowly 11.7 percent.

Is there hope?

Similar to Hunter in Tennessee, it’s hard to cast aside a young and potentially dynamic offensive threat. And with the improved quarterback play provided by Nick Foles in St. Louis, there should be more opportunities to stretch the field with Austin.

But right now everything about his first two NFL seasons points to one role for a supposedly multidimensional athlete: kick returner.

New York Jets Cornerback Dee Milliner

Alan Diaz/Associated Press

The New York Jets drafted Dee Milliner to be a Darrelle Revis replacement in 2013. Now, the top cornerback in his class has been replaced by Revis.

That is only where the depth-chart plunge began for Milliner during the 2015 offseason, as Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine also leapfrogged him. At cornerback during free agency, the Jets were basically that wide-eyed kid who just saw a $100 bill for the first time: They were ready to buy everything and everyone.

And that’s an unfortunate state of mind for a team that is not long removed from paying steeply for Milliner, using a ninth overall pick to acquire his services.

Milliner’s body has often been broken, and a torn Achilles could land him on the physically unable to perform list to start 2015. But getting scorched repeatedly when healthy is the real reason why the Jets wanted to make sure none of their starters at any cornerback position—either outside or in the slot—are named Milliner.

The 23-year-old appeared in 12 games during his rookie season, which is all the time he needed to allow seven touchdowns. Milliner was also benched three times while stumbling to 770 passing yards allowed, which ranked 100th among the 112 cornerbacks who played at least 25 percent of their team’s defensive snaps in 2013, per PFF. He’s descending toward afterthought status.

Challengers

Milliner’s slow career burn has already cost him any realistic shot at starting. When healthy he’ll only have the “quality depth” title, and that’s often reserved for experienced veterans—not third-year cornerbacks drafted to be impact performers.

Is there hope?

There is some short-term hope only because new Jets head coach Todd Bowles often reaches deep. As noted by Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, Bowles had six or more defensive backs on the field for 619 snaps in 2014 when he was the Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator.

So Milliner will have his chances to continue developing while making meaningful contributions. And in theory, it will be easier to justify his draft status when he’s not the No. 1 cornerback and doesn’t have to face the opposition’s top receiver.

New Orleans Saints Safety Kenny Vaccaro

Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images

There’s still hope for Kenny Vaccaro and a reason to believe. We can point to the multiple and serious injuries the New Orleans Saints safety grappled with in 2014, as the 24-year-old told Larry Holder of the New Orleans Times-Picayune he played through a hamstring problem and two quad tears.

But can an entire season of inept play that eventually gave Vaccaro a seat on the bench be shrugged off by playing the injury card?

Be careful how generous you are with that, because you’ll be casting aside a season when Vaccaro missed 19 tackles, per PFF, drastically more than his three whiffs in 2013. His presence as a hard-hitting run defender also declined, as Vaccaro's run stops fell from 14 during his rookie year to seven in 2014.

Maybe a healthy and fully functioning Vaccaro can recapture his 2013 form to become a key defensive piece alongside safety Jairus Byrd. Overall, the Saints secondary is now physically formidable after the addition of cornerback Brandon Browner.

Or maybe more than injuries factored into Vaccaro’s step backward in 2014, and we saw the beginning of a regression.

Challengers

Vinnie Sunseri is immediately behind Vaccaro on the depth chart. The former Alabama standout who recorded 105 tackles over three collegiate seasons could eventually provide a push if Vaccaro continues to struggle. But for now the Saints will still give their first-round pick in 2013 a lot of rope.

Is there hope?

There are plenty of good vibes around Vaccaro still, purely because of the injuries that potentially sapped a tooth-rattling safety of his physical explosiveness.

But his gaffes in coverage weren’t all injury-related, and many of them prompted Saints fans to remove fistfuls of hair. The most glaring example was a 51-yard cross-field heave allowed to San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree when Vaccaro was caught wandering aimlessly.

Cleveland Browns Outside Linebacker Barkevious Mingo

David Richard/Associated Press

Cleveland Browns outside linebacker Barkevious Mingo used to be more than just the best draft name this side of Bismo Funyons.

After collecting 29 tackles for a loss and 15 sacks over three years at LSU, he narrowly missed being a top-five pick in 2013, coming off the board at sixth overall. Like many players selected that high, he was thought of as a final piece and in this case one-half of a swarming outside linebacker tandem with Paul Kruger, who had just been signed.

Two seasons later Mingo has all of seven career sacks.

In fairness, that number tells a partial lie. He was asked to drop back in coverage more often during his second season, and he confidently handled that assignment while allowing a modest 68 yards on 17 targets, per PFF. He played a multifaceted role instead of focusing on rushing the passer, and that will change now after fellow outside linebacker Jabaal Sheard departed for the New England Patriots as a free agent.

The Browns need to see more penetration and pocket-collapsing from Mingo, who still isn’t guaranteed any specific role or chunk of the early-down work despite his draft status.

Challengers

Mingo battled through a torn labrum in 2014 and needed surgery shortly after the season. That issue didn’t help during his limited pass-rushing opportunities.

Still, Browns defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil said Mingo will have to work for whatever playing time he receives.

"We’re deep at every position," O’Neil told Andrew Gribble of Browns.com. "Mingo is going to have to come back ready to go, and he’s going to have to earn it."

Mingo was limited to participating in only seven-on-seven drills during minicamp, and in August he’ll have to carve a role for himself against Scott Soloman, Armonty Bryant and 2015 second-round pick Nate Orchard.

Is there hope? 

Mingo’s grip on a starting spot is somewhere between lukewarm and hot.

There would be comfort in being able to look back on established production to know he can thrive as an NFL pass-rusher and quickly ascend with Sheard gone. But any concern about Mingo is mostly tied to a lack of pass-rushing volume after he was used for only 202 pass-rushing snaps in 2014, per PFF.

Kansas City Chiefs Tackle Eric Fisher

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Eric Fisher probably shouldn’t be a starting left tackle anymore. He probably shouldn’t be in part responsible for the blocking in front of Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, who bounces to the outside as often as he breathes. And he definitely shouldn’t be responsible for Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith’s blind side.

And soon the Fisher era at left tackle could indeed be over. But although this is always denied around the league during training camp battles under the beating sun, draft status often does give a player certain unofficial rights. In this case for Fisher, it’s the right to be awful for longer before getting demoted or shifted.

Fisher allowed seven sacks in 2014 during his first season on the left side, per PFF. He was one of only 14 tackles in the league to meet or exceed that number, and mustering any shock is difficult.

He spent his first NFL season at right tackle before Branden Albert moved on to the Miami Dolphins. How many sacks did he allow when he wasn’t protecting his quarterback's blind side? Seven, so at least he’s consistent.

Challengers

Fisher is only part of the problem here. Or most of the problem, but contributing to Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s left tackle conundrum is the lack of other serviceable options.

Reid experimented briefly with Donald Stephenson at left tackle earlier this offseason during OTAs. He then said the practice alignment was rooted in getting Stephenson some extra reps and wasn’t connected to Fisher’s performance, according to Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star.

Fair enough I guess. But people (like, say, me) will always pay attention when your first overall pick tackle is removed from his starting spot, even if it’s during the dreary offseason dead zone.

Stephenson has some limited experience at left tackle, but he’s not a significant upgrade over Fisher, and neither is first-round bust and Green Bay Packers castoff Derek Sherrod.

Is there hope?

The nugget of optimism for Fisher can be found in another import offensive line metric: quarterback hurries. As Fisher’s degree of difficulty increased when he moved from the right side to the left, his quarterback hurries fell from 35 in 2013 to 24 in 2014.

If his pressures allowed keep falling even marginally each season, there’s hope Fisher could turn into a league average left tackle. Which is definitely what you’re looking for out of a first overall pick.

Indianapolis Colts Outside Linebacker Bjoern Werner

Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

You’re mostly greeted by depression when scrolling down the list of sack leaders from the 2012 college football season.

The exception is Anthony Barr, the former UCLA pass-rusher who’s now blossoming with the Minnesota Vikings. He finished tied for first that year with 14 sacks. Then the sadness begins.

Barr matched Jarvis Jones, the outside linebacker who was hunting quarterbacks for Georgia before being selected 17th overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2013. Jones has recorded only three sacks over two NFL seasons while being slowed by injuries. Now he’s fighting for a starting job and trying to hold off 37-year-old James Harrison.

But at least Jones has a more serious health issue to fall back on when justifying his failures after missing nine games in 2014 with a wrist problem. Indianapolis Colts outside linebacker Bjoern Werner doesn’t quite have the same luxury.

Werner finished only one sack behind Jones during his final college season at Florida State, and he’s now appeared in 28 of a possible 32 regular-season games over two years after being selected with the 24th overall pick. The hope was for Werner to first develop into a complementary piece alongside veteran Colts outside linebacker Robert Mathis and then become his replacement once the now-34-year-old retires.

Werner’s response to that potential future has left more questions than answers. With PFF having him down Over the 1,177 career snaps PFF has him down for, he’s logged 6.5 sacks. His first sack in 2014 didn’t come until Week 5, when he registered two in a win over the Baltimore Ravens. Then Werner totaled only two more throughout his other 10 regular-season games and was benched during the AFC Championship Game.

It was later revealed Werner was dealing with knee and shoulder injuries. Or at least that’s what Colts general manager Ryan Grigson said while trying to explain why a recent first-round pick was watching during the most important game of his team’s season. Grigson told Mike Wells of ESPN.com that Werner had been “working through some things, some dings and had been slowed down.”

Sort of like the same dings most players have in late January, one game away from the Super Bowl. The same dings that usually limit a player’s role but don’t land him on the inactive list.

There was an odor coming from the Colts' postseason approach with Werner, and it wasn’t hard to see the source. During the 2014 regular season, 29 3-4 outside linebackers played at least 50 percent of their team’s defensive snaps, per PFF. Among them, Werner’s 27 total pressures ranked 26th.

On a playoff Sunday, Colts head coach Chuck Pagano’s roster decisions become even more important. He has to field the best 11 men on both sides of the ball, and Werner wasn’t among them.

Now he might not be in that group during most regular-season Sundays.

Challengers

Werner was outplayed by rookie outside linebacker Jonathan Newsome in 2014, who led the Colts with 6.5 sacks. With Newsome emerging, Mathis returning at some point early in 2015 from his Achilles injury and Trent Cole joining the team, everything is aligned for Werner’s depth-chart free fall.

Is there hope?

Some fleeting hope can be found if we compare Werner to the other first-round pass-rushers in his draft class. That bar is so low it’s scraping the ground and can be cleared by your average penguin jump.

Werner at least had a stretch in 2014 with four sacks over seven games, which is more than the career totals posted by Jones and the Dolphins’ Dion Jordan (both with three sacks), while the Packers’ Datone Jones has only five sacks to his name.

So that’s…something?