The Most Effective Starting Rotations in MLB This Season
It's been said that pitching wins championships, but that adage isn't quite right.
While baseball is a team sport and relief pitchers have their place, a team without an effective starting rotation has no chance of contending for the game's biggest prize and playing meaningful baseball in October.
But what makes a starting rotation an "effective" rotation? How do we define it?
For this exercise, three statistical categories will help us do just that:
- Innings pitched: Does a team's rotation work deep into games, or are short outings a common occurrence, putting extra strain on the bullpen?
- FIP: A more accurate depiction of how a pitcher performs than ERA. FanGraphs offers an excellent explanation for those still unfamiliar with the statistic.
- FanGraphs WAR: What is it good for? This exercise.
We'll take the average ranking for each rotation across all three categories and use that to determine which have been the most effective in the majors this season.
As an example, let's say a team's rotation ranks eighth in innings pitched, third in FIP and first in WAR, giving it a total of 12. Divide that by three (the number of categories), and we get an average ranking of 4.00.
For our purposes, the lower the number, the more effective the rotation. Is a score of 4.00 low enough to be baseball's most effective rotation? Let's find out.
10. Chicago Cubs
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Chicago's Rotation By the Numbers
| 439.1 | 26 | 3.42 | 5 | 7.8 | 7 | 12.67 |
Chicago thought it was getting a rock-solid ace when it signed Jon Lester to a six-year, $155 million deal this past winter. Instead, he's produced like a mediocre No. 3 starter, pitching to a 4.03 ERA (3.55 FIP). He's also failed toย get out of (or make it to) the sixth inning in five of his 15 starts on the season.
But Lester's struggles have overshadowed what have been terrific performances from Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel atop the Cubs rotation and a solid showing from Kyle Hendricks at the back end.
While the group isn't giving manager Joe Maddon any lengthโonly Arrieta and Hammel have eclipsed the 90-inning plateau thus farโhis starting pitchers are giving him quality innings, evidenced by a 3.42 FIP that trails only Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Washington in the National League.
Adding another starting pitcher to the mix certainly isn't going to hurt the team's chances of reaching the playoffs, but how desperately the club needs another arm has been somewhat overstated. The rotation hasn't been great, but the numbers say it's been pretty darn good.
9. Seattle Mariners
2 of 10
Seattle's Rotation By the Numbers
| 465.1 | 9 | 3.91 | 14 | 5.3 | 14 | 12.33 |
You wouldn't think that Seattle's rotation had been all that effective this season, given the team's losing record, the noted early struggles of prospect Taijuan Walker and injuries to both Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton.
But Seattle's starters have improved as the season has progressed, making those missing arms less of an issue than they normally would be.
Opposing hitters were routinely shelling Walker in the early part of the season. He's gone at least six innings in each of his last six starts, averaging more than a strikeout per frame. Mike Montgomery has been stellar in his rookie season, throwing at least six innings in all of his starts, including a pair of complete-game shutouts his last two times out.
With Iwakuma set to return from the disabled list, Seattle's rotation is poised to get a whole lot better, which gives at least some reason for optimism as the season's second half arrives.
โItโs a nice problem to have,โ manager Lloyd McClendon told theย News Tribune's Bob Dutton. โRight now, weโre still in the process of figuring out what weโre going to do when he comes back.โ
8. Chicago White Sox
3 of 10
Chicago's Rotation By the Numbers
| 464 | 11 | 3.64 | 10 | 7.9 | 6 | 9.00 |
A team that sits nine games under .500 and has been outscored by 80 runs doesn't seem like one whose starting rotation would even be a candidate for consideration as one of baseball's most efficient, but the Chicago White Sox don't have what you'd call a normal rotation, as ESPN.com's Doug Padilla points out:
"While roughly 10 percent of the world's population is left-handed, a healthy 80 percent of the Chicago White Sox's starting rotation operates from the port side these days, enabling them to buck a trend in more ways than one.
The makeup of the rotation not onlyย swims upstream against census numbers but also is a rarity in baseball circles, where a heavy left-handed presence tends to yield panic, as opposed to a pack of right-handed starters that hardly raise an eyebrow.
"
Chris Sale, who isย in the midst of a historic strikeout run, Jeff Samardzija and the criminally underrated Jose Quintana are all among the American League's top 20 in innings pitched, while John Danks and rookie Carlos Rodon have given the team length in their starts as well.
It's why the White Sox, despite having spent more than $50 million in the winter to rebuild their bullpen, have called on their relief corps less than any other team in baseball.
7. Houston Astros
4 of 10
Houston's Rotation By the Numbers
| 483.2 | 3 | 3.76 | 11 | 6.8 | 11 | 8.33 |
While much has been made of the Houston Astros' high-powered offenseโthey lead baseball with 113 home runs and are fourth in runs scored with 356โthe team's starting rotation has done an excellent job of making sure that many of those runs are of the insurance variety.
Dallas Keuchel has put forth a Cy Young Award-worthy campaign, but Houston's ace realizes that despite the rotation's early-season success, he's going to need help to see this thing through to the end.
"I just would assume we'll probably get a pitcher based on the fact that we're not going to run the young guns out for 200 innings," he explained to the Houston Chronicle's Evan Drellich.ย "We're going to need somebody to kind of help fill that void. Whether it's Kazmir, Samardzija, Hamels, Cueto, whoever, we're going to expect them to come in and help us out."
Those young gunsโLance McCullers Jr. and Vincent Velasquezโhave put forth yeomen's efforts in their debut seasons, making it far easier for the Astros to handle the loss of veteran Scott Feldman, who has been out of action since late May after undergoingย knee surgery.
Even without Feldman and a less-than-stellar showing from Collin McHugh (4.51 ERA, 4.01 FIP), Houston's rotation has been one of the most consistent in baseball, hanging around the top 10 all season long in the three statistical categories we're concerned with.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 10
Los Angeles' Rotation By the Numbers
| 478.1 | 4 | 3.49 | 8 | 7.4 | T8 | 6.67 |
It's true that season-ending injuries to Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu have forced the Los Angeles Dodgers to rely on unproven commodities in Mike Bolsinger and Carlos Frias for much of the regular season, and the club is also on the hunt for rotation reinforcements as the trade deadline approaches.
But when you've got Zack Greinke, a healthy Brett Anderson and Clayton Kershawโeven in a down year (by his standards)โthings are never quite as bad as they might seem.
That trio has been able to pitch deep into games. Anderson has been surprisingly solid, going at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts. While Bolsinger and Frias haven't provided length, all five pitchers have done an excellent job, holding the opposition to a .671 OPS, the fifth-lowest mark by any rotation thus far.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6 of 10
Pittsburgh's Rotation By the Numbers
| 463 | T12 | 3.16 | 2 | 8.4 | 4 | 6.00 |
While Pittsburgh's rotation remained largely unchanged from a season agoโA.J. Burnett replacing Edinson Volquez is the only real differenceโthe loss of catcher Russell Martin behind the plate was supposed to signal impending doom and gloom for the group.
But someone forgot to tell the Pirates, as Burnett and Co. have firmly cemented their place as one of baseball's most electricโand effectiveโrotations.
โWeโre commanding the ball extremely well,โ manager Clint Hurdle told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Ron Cook on June 16. โOur location has been very, very good. Every one of the guys with the different skill sets and the different pitches. More often than not, weโre pounding the zone. Weโre throwing strikes. Weโre changing speeds. Weโre not being predictable.โ
Four of the team's five starters crack the NL's top 30 in FIP: Burnett (2.62) and Gerrit Cole (2.64) own two of the five lowest marks; Francisco Liriano (13th, 3.08) and Jeff Locke (30th, 3.94) are the other two. Burnett, Cole and Liriano can also be found among the Senior Circuit's top 20 in WAR.
4. Washington Nationals
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Washington's Rotation By the Numbers
| 463 | 12 | 3.10 | 1 | 10.0 | 1 | 4.67 |
Washington's rotation hasn't quite lived up to the expectations that surrounded it heading into the regular season, but those who think the group has held the Nationals back in the National League East race should think again.
For while it has not been historically dominant (outside of Max Scherzer, who is having a season for the ages), this rotation hasn't fallen nearly as far as some believe it has.ย Consider the disparity between the group's individual ERA and FIP:
| Max Scherzer | 1.79 | 2.03 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 5.49 | 3.57 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 3.16 | 3.01 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 4.41 | 3.16 |
| Doug Fister | 4.15 | 4.37 |
The advanced metrics say Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez haven't been nearly as ineffective as their individual numbers would suggest, though there's no disputing that, thus far, they've not been as sharp as they have been in the past.
While the Nationals aren't getting length out of the rotation, there's reason to believe that as the above trio continues to round into form, they'll be able to pitch deeper into games, making the group even more effective than it's already been.
3. New York Mets
8 of 10
New York's Rotation By the Numbers
| 485.2 | 2 | 3.47 | 6 | 8.1 | 5 | 4.33 |
If you're looking for a team whose rotation will have staying power as one of baseball's most effective, you won't find a better candidate than the New York Mets. With what can only be called an obscene amount of young talent, this group will only get better.
That's a scary proposition for the rest of the National League, as the Mets already boast one of baseball's best starting five starting six.ย
Consider these facts, as laid out by Bleacher Report's Anthony Witrado late last month:ย "Their starting rotation is one of the most promising in baseball, ranking in the top six in theย National Leagueย in FIP, strikeouts per nine innings, strikeout-to-walk ratio (it is first in that category) andย FanGraphs WAR. It ranks fifth in ERA."
While rolling with a six-man rotation isn't ideal, the Mets are trying to maximize the group's effectiveness while limiting their individual workloads. That's an important step considering the youth and relative inexperience of Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard, along with Matt Harvey's surgically repaired elbow.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
9 of 10
St. Louis' Rotation By the Numbers
| 467 | T6 | 3.21 | 3 | 8.9 | 2 | 3.67 |
If you're looking for the driving force behind St. Louis' scorching 51-25 start to the season, look no further than the team's starting rotation, which has (arguably) been the best in baseball.
โThey take the ball and say, โWe got it.โ Thatโs been impressive," Cardinals reliever Matt Belisle recently told Bernie Miklasz of theย St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "Theyโre getting through a lot of innings. Theyโre really competing so well. Itโs vital what theyโve done for the teamโs consistency and the tone they set. Very strong. Thatโs what it is. Very strong.โ
The rotation's ability to work deep into games has kept Belisle and his pals in the bullpen fresher than most. Entering play Wednesday, Cardinals relievers had worked only 219.2 innings, the fifth-lowest total in baseball.
And they've been so efficient without the services of workhorse and staff ace Adam Wainwright, who has been out since late April with a torn left Achilles tendon. That isย trulyย remarkable.
So too is that only one member of the rotation has an ERA above 3.00โJohn Lackey, whose 3.35 ERA and 3.39 FIP would be among the best marks on any other rotation in the majors. But he's the "weak link" in St. Louis.
1. Oakland Athletics
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Oakland's Rotation By the Numbers
| 489.1 | 1 | 3.39 | 4 | 8.8 | 3 | 2.67 |
There's plenty of blame to be shared in Oakland for the A's disappointing showing in 2015, but anyone who points their finger at the team's rotation may want to reconsider their thinking. The A's rotation is not only the most efficient in the American Leagueโit might be the best the AL has to offer as well.
Led by one of baseball's brightest young stars, 25-year-old Sonny Gray, Oakland's rotation is working deeper into games than any of its counterparts on the junior circuit.ย That's no small feat when you consider that two of the A's startersโKendall Graveman and Jesse Hahnโhad less than 80 combined innings of work in the majors between them heading into the season.
Sadly, this group figures to lose at least one major piece at the trade deadline in Scott Kazmir, who will be one of the most sought-after starters on the market.
But with the way general manager Billy Beane operates, he'll bring back another impressive young arm to take Kazmir's placeโand keep the A's rotation among the most effective in the game.
Unless otherwise linked or noted, all statistics courtesy ofย Baseball-Reference.comย andย FanGraphsย and are current through games of June 30.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball:ย @RickWeinerBR.
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