MLB International Free Agency 2015: Preview, Predictions and Prospects to Watch
This Thursday officially marks the start of the 2015 MLB international signing period, and while the process has become far more regulated with the addition of signing bonus pool restrictions, it remains perhaps the biggest crapshoot in all of professional sports.
After all, most of these prospects are still just 16-year-old kids who have seen limited scouting exposure playing in Latin America, and teams will soon be shelling out seven-figure bonuses banking on them living up to their potential.
There is undoubtedly some risk, but these days, teams almost have to get involved on the international market, with so many star-caliber players coming out of the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Cuba and, on a smaller scale, Colombia, Mexico, Taiwan and South Korea.
So as teams look to find the next superstar international free agent, here is everything you need to know about the signing process, the top available prospects and the leading suitors to land each top prospect.
*Prospect rankings reflect a prospect's average ranking position in the top international prospect lists from MLB.com's Prospect Watch and Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs.
*Top suitor predictions also taken from those two sources, as many prospects already have verbal agreements in place prior to the signing period opening.
Explaining the International Signing Process
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Under the new collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect for the 2012 season, new bonus pool restrictions were put into place in both the MLB draft and on the international free-agent market.
First, some quick need-to-know facts about who is eligible to be signed and when players can be signed:
- The window to sign players this year runs from July 2, 2015 to June 15, 2016.
- All amateur players outside of the United States and Canada are eligible to be signed.
- Players must turn 17 years old by September 1, 2016 (the completion of their first minor league season) to be eligible.
Here is a quick rundown of everything you need to know about the bonus pool rules:
- Every team has a different bonus pool, based on the previous season's record.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have the largest pool this year at $5,393,900. The Los Angeles Angels have the smallest at $1,968,600, according to Baseball America.
- All signing overages are taxed at 100 percent
- Exceed the bonus pool by five to 10 percent: team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $500,000 the following year.
- Exceed the bonus pool by 10-15 percent: team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $300,000 the following year.
- Exceed the bonus pool by 15-plus percent: team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $300,000 the following two years.
- The Los Angeles Angels, Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees all exceeded their bonus pools by more than 15 percent last year, so they will be limited to signing players for less than $300,000 each.
Notable Catching Prospects
2 of 7Top Catching Prospects
| 28 | Miguel Amaya | Panama | 6'0", 160 | L/R | CHC |
| 39 | Rafael Marchan | Venezuela | 5'8", 175 | S/R | PHI |
| 44 | Ricardo Genoves | Venezuela | 6'1", 180 | R/R | SF |
| 49 | Enrique Hatma | Curacao | 5'10", 210 | R/R | ? |
Notable Infield Prospects
3 of 7Top Infield Prospects
| 3 | SS Lucius Fox | Bahamas | 6'2", 170 | S/R | LAD |
| 5 | SS Wander Javier | Dominican R. | 6'0", 165 | R/R | MIN |
| 7 | 1B Jhailyn Ortiz | Dominican R. | 6'2", 260 | R/R | PHI |
| 8 | SS Andres Gimenez | Venezuela | 5'11", 158 | L/R | NYM |
| 12 | SS Gregory Guerrero | Dominican R. | 5'11", 175 | R/R | NYM |
| 15 | SS Derian Cruz | Dominican R. | 6'0", 170 | S/R | ATL |
| 17 | SS Yonathan Perlaza | Venezuela | 5'8", 175 | S/R | CHC |
| 18 | 3B Carlos Vargas | Dominican R. | 6'3", 180 | R/R | SEA |
| 20 | SS Ronny Brito | Dominican R. | 6'2", 170 | L/R | LAD |
| 21 | SS Aramis Ademan | Dominican R. | 5'10", 150 | L/R | CHC |
| 22 | SS Jeison Guzman | Dominican R. | 6'2", 175 | R/R | KC |
| 26 | 3B Christopher Martinez | Dominican R. | 5'11", 180 | R/R | CHC |
| 31 | SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | Dominican R. | 6'1", 175 | R/R | CWS |
| 33 | SS Miguel Hernandez | Venezuela | 5'11", 155 | R/R | CIN |
| 34 | 2B Andy Ibanez | Cuba | 5'9", 185 | R/R | ? |
| 36 | SS Kevin Melean | Venezuela | 5'10", 160 | R/R | SD |
| 37 | 3B Onil Cruz | Dominican R. | 6'4", 165 | L/R | LAD |
| 38 | SS Raffy Ozuna | Dominican R. | 6'2", 170 | L/R | STL |
| 45 | 2B Jose Fermin | Dominican R. | 5'11", 160 | R/R | CLE |
| 46 | SS Enrique Saldana | Panama | 5'11", 150 | S/R | COL |
| 47 | SS Juan Morales | Venezuela | 6'0", 150 | R/R | ATL |
| 48 | SS Christopher Navarro | Dominican R. | 5'9", 150 | R/R | COL |
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Notable Outfield Prospects
4 of 7Top Outfield Prospects
| 1 | CF Eddy Julio Martinez | Cuba | 6'2", 195 | R/R | LAD |
| 4 | RF Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Dominican R. | 6'0", 220 | R/R | TOR |
| 6 | CF Starling Heredia | Dominican R. | 6'0", 215 | R/R | LAD, CHC |
| 9 | CF Christian Pache | Dominican R. | 6'1", 180 | R/R | ATL |
| 10 | CF Gilberto Celestino | Dominican R. | 5'11", 165 | R/L | HOU |
| 11 | CF Leodys Taveras | Dominican R. | 6'1", 165 | S/R | TEX |
| 16 | RF Daniel Montano | Venezuela | 6'1", 180 | L/R | COL |
| 13 | CF Seuly Matias | Dominican R. | 6'2", 190 | R/R | KC |
| 19 | C/OF Albert Guaimaro | Venezuela | 5'10", 210 | R/R | BOS |
| 23 | RF Jonathan Sierra | Dominican R. | 6'3", 205 | L/L | CHC |
| 24 | CF Christian Olivo | Dominican R. | 6'2", 210 | L/L | CIN |
| 25 | RF Juan Soto | Dominican R. | 6'1", 175 | L/L | WAS |
| 29 | RF Franklin Reyes | Dominican R. | 6'3", 235 | R/R | CWS |
| 30 | CF Miguel Aparicio | Venezuela | 5'11", 170 | L/L | TEX |
| 41 | CF Simon Muzziotti | Venezuela | 6'0", 165 | L/L | ? |
| 50 | RF Jeison De La Cruz | Dominican R. | 6'2", 190 | R/R | ? |
A Closer Look at the Top 5 Position Player Prospects
5 of 7CF Eddy Martinez, Cuba
The 20-year-old Eddy Julio Martinez has been compared to a young Andruw Jones, and MLB.com's Prospect Watch graded his tools out at 60 or higher across the board.
A number of teams have shown significant interest in Martinez, but the Dodgers look like the favorites to sign him at this point. Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs predicted an $11 million bonus for the 6'3" and 195-pound center fielder.
SS Lucius Fox, Bahamas
Another Los Angeles Dodgers target with a projected $5.5 million bonus, Lucius Fox has plenty of projectability in his 6'2" and 170-pound frame.
Fox actually played high school ball in the United States before returning to the Bahamas, so scouts are more familiar with him than most international prospects, and he held his own in the showcase circuit.
He should be able to stick at shortstop long-term and could turn into a legitimate five-tool threat once he develops, though his power is still something of a question at this point.
RF Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Dominican Republic
Perhaps the highest-profile player in this year's international class, thanks to his bloodlines, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has plus raw power in his 6'0" and 220-pound frame.
Offense will be his ticket to the big leagues, and for a 16-year-old he already has an advanced approach at the plate that could allow him to move quicker than most prospects his age. The Blue Jays look like the landing spot, with McDaniel projecting a $3.45 million bonus.
SS Wander Javier, Dominican Republic
As a prospect who projects to stick at shortstop long-term and be a potential middle-of-the-order threat offensively, Wander Javier has as much upside as any prospect in this year's class.
Prospect Watch grades his tools out at 50 or better across the board, and some consider him to be the best all-around player in this year's class. The Minnesota Twins appear to be the favorites to sign him, with a projected $4 million bonus.
CF Starling Heredia, Dominican Republic
With the strong arm and the raw power scouts look for in a corner outfielder, Starling Heredia may very well wind up as the best bat in this class before all is said and done.
He's still incredibly raw, but the 16-year-old has all the tools to be a superstar packed into his 6'0" and 215-pound frame. The Los Angeles Dodgers are also in on Heredia, with a $2.5 million projected bonus being the cost.
Notable Pitching Prospects
6 of 7Top Pitching Prospects
| 2 | RHP Yadier Alvarez | Cuba | 6'3", 175 | R/R | LAD |
| 14 | RHP Alvaro Seijas | Venezuela | 6'0", 175 | R/R | STL |
| 27 | RHP Anderson Amarista | Venezuela | 6'0", 180 | R/R | CHC |
| 32 | RHP Andres Munoz | Mexico | 6'0", 170 | R/R | SD |
| 35 | RHP Luis Oviedo | Venezuela | 6'3", 175 | R/R | ? |
| 40 | RHP Juan Paredes | Dominican R. | 6'1", 180 | R/R | ? |
| 42 | RHP Yunior Perez | Dominican R. | 6'3", 175 | R/R | CHC |
| 43 | LHP Brailyn Marquez | Dominican R. | 6'3", 175 | L/L | CHC |
A Closer Look at the Top 3 Pitching Prospects
7 of 7RHP Yadier Alvarez, Cuba
Just how valuable is a 19-year-old arm capable of reaching 98 with his fastball and backing it with two potentially plus off-speed pitches? We'll find out soon enough when Cuban right-hander Yadier Alvarez signs his contract.
MLB.com's Prospect Watch wrote the following about Alvarez:
"Scouts love his arm. It doesn't hurt that Alvarez has a fastball that touches 98 mph, with a plus slider and an above-average changeup. One high-ranking National League official said Alvarez was the best 18-year-old pitcher he had ever seen. Some scouts believe Alvarez has the potential to be at least a No. 2 pitcher because of his stuff and ceiling.
"
Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs has Alvarez, like many of the market's top talents, winding up with the Los Angeles Dodgers for a massive $16 million signing bonus.
RHP Alvaro Seijas, Venezuela
Alvaro Seijas is a 6'1", 175-pound right-hander with a plus fastball, good feel for his curveball and plenty of room to add velocity as he fills out.
"Scouts love Alvaro's stuff -- specifically a fastball that has reached 94 mph -- and his makeup," wrote MLB.com's Prospect Watch. "Like many pitchers his age, Seijas' secondary pitches will improve as he develops."
He's worked closely with former big leaguer Carlos Guillen at his Venezuelan training academy and should benefit from that insight as he makes the jump to the pro game. The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be his landing spot, with a projected bonus of $725,000.
RHP Anderson Amarista, Venezuela
He does not possess the same plus fastball of the two guys listed above, but right-hander Anderson Amarista has a solid three-pitch repertoire with a fastball, curveball and changeup and brings good pitchability for a 16-year-old.
MLB.com's Prospect Watch had this to say:
"Amarista has a decent fastball, but he has impressed scouts with his feel for his changeup. Other scouts think his curveball is his best pitch. What most scouts agree on is that Amarista's pitchability and his arm actions on the mound also make him attractive to teams. Evaluators also praise his high baseball IQ. It's unclear if Amarista will ever wow scouts with fastball velocity, but he can throw strikes and make hitters chase his pitches out of the strike zone.
"
The Chicago Cubs are his primary suitor at this point, with a $1.2 million signing bonus the current projection.
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