Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Top 10 Pickups for Week 13
Three months into the season, one would think all the good fantasy baseball free agents are already gone.
Well, sort of. It's much harder to find a Jason Hammel or a Stephen Vogt at this point. And seriously, if Justin Turner is still available in your league, why? Correct that now. This article will still be here after that two-minute detour.
Back? Cool. This week's adds are mostly hot hands that can no longer go ignored, even if they're bound to regress. Others are big names who are either heating up or warrant a speculative add despite remaining cold.
Will any of these guys catalyze a championship run? Probably not, but every useful piece helps.
Honorable Mentions
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Marlon Byrd, OF, Cincinnati Reds (35 Percent Owned)
J.J. Hardy, SS, Baltimore Orioles (28 Percent Owned)
Chris Young, OF, New York Yankees (17 Percent Owned)
Michael Taylor, OF, Washington Nationals (7 Percent Owned)
Dioner Navarro, C, Toronto Blue Jays (4 Percent Owned)
Ivan Nova, SP, New York Yankees (15 Percent Owned)
Rubby De La Rosa, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (13 Percent Owned)
Joe Blanton, SP, Kansas City Royals (8 Percent Owned)
Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (4 Percent Owned)
10. Mike Montgomery, SP, Seattle Mariners (13 Percent Owned)
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Once a highly revered prospect, Mike Montgomery delved into a downward spiral. After producing a 2.61 ERA in 2010, he got torched to a 5.32 ERA the ensuing season. In 2012, the mark slipped further to 6.07—a simple case of a youngster who fizzled under the spotlight.
Except the 25-year-old has now registered a 2.04 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through five starts for the Seattle Mariners. His hot start didn't deserve much attention this time last week, but then he amassed 10 strikeouts during a complete-game shutout over the Kansas City Royals.
Dominating the team that drafted him was no easy feat, as the Royals are baseball's toughest offense to strike out. Even after his breakthrough performance, Montgomery still has just 22 punchouts in 35.1 innings. and he submitted a 7.4 K/9 rate during his minor league tenure. Let's not label him the next Felix Hernandez—or even Taijuan Walker—just yet.
Still, the Seattle Mariners seem to have stumbled upon a decent young arm, one that has lasted at least six innings in every start. Keep an eye on the revived Montgomery.
9. Joey Butler, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (31 Percent Owned)
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You win, Joey Butler. After weeks of avoiding the 29-year-old's unlikely surge, let's shelve the likely decline and let him enjoy his moment.
A career minor leaguer who spent most of the past four years in Triple-A, Butler is now hitting .315/.358/.482 with six homers and five steals. He also has a .420 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) along with a 4.5 walk and 27.9 strikeout percentage, so don't trust that average.
Still, the regression gods are sure taking their sweet time, and less-cynical fantasy owners have enjoyed two months of stout production. After getting mentioned here, that likely means the ride is over, but the power and speed are worth monitoring.
Also, Butler exuded better patience down in the farm, amassing a 17.9 walk percentage last year and a 10.6 rate before getting promoted in May. Occasionally the bottom doesn't drop out, so see how long he'll stay hot.
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8. Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (9 Percent Owned)
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His numbers aren't as gaudy as Butler's, but teammate Kevin Kiermaier is the better long-term bet. While he's a different performer from last year, he remains an effective deep-league option.
His current results are more sustainable than last year, when he clubbed 10 homers after never displaying such power in the minors. He's instead offering speed, with eight stolen bases. The 25-year-old has found his rhythm this month, hitting .346 with six steals.
Last season, Kiermaier swiped 11 bags in 34 Triple-A games before hitting the brakes in Tampa Bay. Now he's starting the engine enough to push 20 steals alongside 10 homers. That works just fine for someone relatively ignored in all mixed leagues.
7. Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels (5 Percent Owned)
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It wouldn't be a proper waiver-wire list without a post-hype prospect fighting for a second chance. Andrew Heaney, who was traded to both Los Angeles clubs last offseason, quietly made his 2015 debut on Wednesday.
The 24-year-old southpaw tossed six strong innings against the Houston Astros, allowing four hits and one run with five strikeouts and a walk. For someone who received a good deal of attention with the Miami Marlins, his Angels arrival flew under the radar.
It's another case of quickly giving up on a prospect who doesn't promptly light the world on fire. Heaney issued a 5.83 ERA for Miami last season, and he earned his latest call-up despite a 4.71 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts. Heaney also, however, began 2015 as MLB.com's No. 19 overall prospect.
Steven Matz is already owned in roughly half of Yahoo leagues, but Heaney is unaccounted for in 96 percent of leagues. It's doesn't take much time for a shiny toy to lose its luster.
6. Marco Estrada, SP, Toronto Blue Jays (28 Percent Owned)
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Just when everybody comfortably gave up on Marco Estrada, he gets good again. Emerging from the sea of irrelevance, he has relinquished three hits over his past two outings, tossing a two-hit, 10-strikeout gem against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday.
Just like that, the 31-year-old has a 3.45 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite his stellar strikeout-to-walk tendencies over a polarizing career, Estrada has frequently been hit hard and deep. Not as much this year, as he's sporting a 23.3 hard-hit percentage far below his career 32.9 percent.
Keeping the ball in the park is paramount to Estrada's success. If he can maintain his current 0.99 homers allowed per nine innings, he'll remain a nifty matchup play and a short-term hot hand to keep riding.
Then again, he plays half of his games in the Rogers Centre, so don't hold your breath. He's probably nothing more than a temporary fling for mixed-league managers.
5. Luis Valbuena, 2B/3B, Houston Astros (39 Percent Owned)
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Six players have amassed more home runs than Luis Valbuena's 19, and chances are Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Todd Frazier, Albert Pujols, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are all already owned.
Of course, none of those stars are trapped below the Mendoza Line like Valbuena, who's hitting .195. But the 29-year-old batted .249 last year, so he could at least massage the atrocious average to .220-.225 with some help from an uncooperative .176 BABIP.
Then again, where did all this power come from? He has exceeded his previous career high (16) in 69 games with 19.6 percent of his fly balls clearing the fence. So no, he won't finish with 40 or more dingers, but how about 30? Still pretty good.
Valbuena has been a better version of teammate Chris Carter, only at second and third base instead of first and outfield. Someone who can take the average hit—or even better, plays in a league where it's not a category—can benefit from the slugger's services.
4. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Chicago White Sox (47 Percent Owned). .
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What happened to the Adam LaRoche who hit .259/.362/.455 with 26 homers last season? Who's this guy hitting .233/.338/.400 with a 29.5 strikeout percentage?
If not for the strikeouts, there wouldn't be a mass exodus fleeing from the veteran designated hitter. While he's manufacturing homers at a lighter pace than usual, he's not far out of reach from claiming the 10th 20-homer season of his career. It's the .233 average coming from the career .263 hitter.
Although last year's splits deviated from the narrative, LaRoche has often come to life during the summer. He's a career .281/.349/.511 hitter after the All-Star break while registering his most long balls in August and September.
If the arbitrary end-point doesn't impress you, trust his full body of work over the last decade. If he controls his strikeouts, LaRoche will close out the season as a stout corner infielder.
3. Nick Hundley, C, Colorado Rockies (33 Percent Owned)
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Nick Hundley is a perfectly good starting catcher unowned in two-thirds of Yahoo leagues.
He doesn't offer overwhelming power, but the Colorado Rockies backstop is hitting .298/.343/.455 with six homers. Among catchers with at least 150 plate appearances, he ranks sixth in weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) behind Stephen Vogt, Yasmani Grandal, Russell Martin, Buster Posey and Brian McCann.
The 31-year-old has benefited from a .361 BABIP, but he is also utilizing Coors Field to his full advantage. At home, he's batting .330/.363/.557 with five blasts, so proactive players can stream his services during homestands and use someone else when Colorado hits the road.
He's a better option than Yadier Molina and Wilson Ramos, and owners waiting on Jonathan Lucroy or Yan Gomes to heat up can bench them for Hundley until they start producing.
2. Roberto Osuna, RP, Toronto Blue Jays (23 Percent Owned)
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Fantasy gamers are waiting for a definitive answer on who will accumulate saves for the Toronto Blue Jays, but it's no longer Brett Cecil. A 5.70 ERA and 1.44 WHIP have earned him a restraining order from the ninth inning.
Right now, Robert Osuna looks like the clear favorite to run away with the coveted role. Through 35.2 innings, the 20-year-old has notched a 2.02 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 42 strikeouts. The rookie collected two saves last week, striking out seven batters in the process.
While manager John Gibbons didn't declare Osuna his new closer, he sung the youngter's praises to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi. "He’s got the stuff to do it, he’s got the makeup to do it, too. He’s a tough kid," Gibbons said. "He gets strikeouts and you know he’s going to throw strikes. … Shoot, he looks like a veteran out there."
After successfully handling both opportunities, Osuna has the stats and managerial support to keep the job. It's a cavernous leap for someone who spent last year in Single-A, but a bullpen role seems to suit him well.
1. Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Mets (47 Percent Owned)
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Curtis Granderson is a bust. What were the New York Mets thinking giving him a gaudy four-year deal to drag him away from Yankee Stadium? Another regrettable decision in a line of many...
Wait, he's hitting .264/.362/.462 with 14 homers, 43 runs and five stolen bases? When did that happen?
Mostly in June, when the 34-year-old has caught fire to hit .314 with eight long balls. Just like that, he's quietly on pace for a 25-10 campaign. His 12.7 walk percentage from the leadoff role will lead him to a healthy run tally, even with the rest of the lineup injured.
Beware, however, how familiar this feels to last season. After a dreadful start, he righted the ship by batting .300/.411/.522 in June, only to go cold again. A low-average, high-strikeout, power-reliant slugger will go through exaggerated peaks and valleys, and this might prove to be as good as it gets.
Even so, this is someone who belts 20 homers at his worst. It's past time to pick up Granderson again in all formats.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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