Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Pitcher Studs and Duds for June 28

Sunday's pitching slate amounts to trusting the top names. Several rolling aces merit a spot anchoring daily fantasy lineups, and a couple of rebounding arms deserve a second chance.

None of these picks are shocking choices or daring endeavors, but pitching isn't a spot to leap over the ledge. Trust the studs and search for affordable hitters. 

From someone who deviated from his usual strategy and took a flier on Trevor May two days ago, it's usually better to be boring than brave when picking pitchers. Sorry for the obvious choices, but that's what happens when so many upper-tier hurlers take the hill.

Studs

David Price, Detroit Tigers ($11,000) vs. White Sox

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Despite rain washing away Saturday's game between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, David Price remains in line to start on Sunday. MLive.com's James Schmehl confirmed Detroit's plan:

Luckily for daily gamers, Kyle Ryan's turn in the rotation is perfectly skippable. It would have been a shame for Price to miss the White Sox, who have registered baseball's worst .251 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against lefties.

Over his last seven starts, Price wields a 1.41 ERA and 53 strikeouts through 51 innings. On June 6, he twirled a complete-game gem against Chicago, yielding one run and accumulating 11 punchouts. He's the day's priciest pitcher for good reason. Pay up.

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants ($10,600) 

The Colorado Rockies carry an MLB-worst 25.0 strikeout percentage against lefties. Only the White Sox shoulder a worse weighted runs created plus (wRC+), so Madison Bumgarner trails only a step behind Price.

Coming off a 14-strikeout performance against the San Diego Padres, the southpaw has compiled 41 strikeouts over his last four starts. The San Francisco Giants' postseason hero remains a durable workhorse, averaging 6.2 innings pitched per start.

Take away Coors Field, and Colorado isn't all that scary. Especially against a dominant lefty.

Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers ($10,300) at Miami

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Zack Greinke has allowed one or no runs in 11 of his 15 starts this season. He also hasn't won a game since May 5 despite his incredible pitching, as noted by ESPN Stats & Info.

Wins are stupid. Wins are fluky. There's no reason to believe an ace won't stockpile wins on a great team, so the streak should end on Sunday. The Miami Marlins probably won't be very good without Giancarlo Stanton, and Jose Urena probably won't pitch well against a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that decimates righties.

Michael Pineda, New York Yankees ($7,500) at Houston

Michael Pineda comes at a major discount after his latest eight-run shellacking against the Philadelphia Phillies. Yet many participants will still shy away from the slumping 26-year-old, who has a 6.10 ERA since his 16-strikeout masterpiece on May 10.

For $7,500, making him cheaper than a dozen alternatives, there's too much to like about Pineda's overall numbers. He's still harnessing a 2.89 fielding independent pitching (FIP) with 9.25 strikeouts and 1.28 walks per nine innings. The Houston Astros exude significant power, but they also strike out more than any other team against right-handed pitchers.

Pineda burned everyone by turning a gimme matchup into the worst performance of his career, but what's done is done. A successful DFS player forgets quickly and sticks to his or her guns rather than panicking.  

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals ($9,300) at Philadelphia

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Stephen Strasburg has a 5.90 ERA this season, and targeting the Phillies procured disaster for Pineda and Michael Wacha. Yet this is a case of trusting the process and track record. Philadelphia still owns MLB's worst offense against righties, and Strasburg is still an ace with a career 3.23 ERA and 10.25 K/9 rate.

He looked much better in his first start off the disabled list, striking out six Atlanta Braves through five scoreless innings. According to Brooks Baseball, he induced whiffs on 16.39 percent of his fastballs (10 out of 61), the highest rate of any outing this season. That's a huge step considering opponents have recorded a .313 average off his four-seamer. 

Throw a healthy and effective Strasburg back into the fire against the Phillies. If he's back to normal, $9,300 is a massive bargain.

Note: The Nationals and Phillies will play a doubleheader, with Strasburg pitching the originally scheduled game at 1:05 p.m. ET. Since DraftKings doesn't combine both games for a single score, this one will likely be used for the all-day slate.

Duds 

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners ($10,800) at L.A. Angels

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

While the other aces all get plus matchups, Felix Hernandez has to deal with the scorching-hot Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. The Los Angeles Angels are rolling offensively, and Hernandez has surrendered 20 runs this month.

Mike Fiers, Milwaukee Brewers ($8,500) vs. Minnesota

Whenever Mike Fiers' turn comes up, his 10.01 K/9 rate makes everyone swoon. Coming from one of his biggest supporters over the years, there are some serious red flags from a daily perspective. Most notably, his .358 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) isn't all luck-based, as his 41.5 hard-hit percentage trumps all qualified starters by a considerable margin.

Rank	Player	Hard-Hit %
1	Mike Fiers	41.5
2	Kyle Lohse	36.0
3	Tom Koehler	35.8
4	Kyle Kendrick	35.2
5	Jeremy Hellickson	34.7

If winning games wasn't hard enough with a tame Milwaukee Brewers offense behind him, Fiers has logged 5.1 innings per start, only once lasting a full seven frames. With each inning pitched netting 2.25 DraftKings points, he's tossing back some of his strikeout gains.

Also, he's far from cheap at $8,500. The cheaper Pineda offers far more upside with better command, and Jason Hammel is a much better pitcher despite a tough matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians ($7,100) at Baltimore

Jason Miller/Getty Images

There are too many aces going to play Trevor Bauer roulette. The strikeout artist has allowed 12 walks and 13 runs over his last three outings, most recently surrendering seven runs to the Tigers.

Maybe the good Bauer shows up and makes several tournament risk-takers rich, but he's far too erratic to trust against the dangerous Baltimore Orioles.

Note: The Indians and Orioles play a doubleheader, with Bauer starting the originally scheduled game at 1:35 p.m. ET.  

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.  

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