Ranking the Top 10 Men's Players Heading into 2015 Wimbledon
The 2015 Wimbledon draw has been revealed, and tennis’ most prestigious tournament is ready for two weeks of match play to crown the king of the All-England Club. It’s the most specialized of the majors, featuring quick-strike shots and low skidding bounces.
Our top-10 power rankings count down the most likely contenders for this tournament, and are not necessarily reflective of the ATP Rankings. Here are three factors that evaluate each of the contenders’ chances.
- Grass-court skills and serving: They must either have a monstrously tough service game, or they must have exceptional athleticism for service returns. Legends like Pete Sampras and Roger Federer are noted more for the former, and Andre Agassi and Novak Djokovic built their success with more of the latter. Quick reflexes, aggressive shots and net play reward players who can finish quick points.
- Recent and historical success: Who has played well on grass the past few years? Success and confidence go hand in hand for matches that can shift quickly, often turning on a single point or two. Playing through pressure at big moments on Centre Court takes a champion’s composure.
- The draw: Nobody wants to run into huge servers like John Isner and Kevin Anderson. It can be equally difficult to face Philipp Kohlschreiber or Sergiy Stakhovsky, net rushers with good instincts. Unlike the French Open which is more of a grueling test, Wimbledon has a deeper field of dangerous opponents capable of carving out upsets.
Let's break down the top contenders on the following slides.
Just Missing the Cut
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Although they are ranked in the top 10, Kei Nishikori and David Ferrer do not pack punch to blitz through two weeks on grass. Their consistency is laudable, but either player can be overpowered by other stars. Nishikori could be hampered by a calf injury, and if it flares up at all he will not last long. At any rate, it's hard to see him getting past a likely fourth-round match against Marin Cilic.
World No. 14 Kevin Anderson could be a real problem for other players, but Novak Djokovic is a nightmare match-up in the fourth round. Anderson won't win that one, even if he is playing better than he did in 2012, which was the last time they met.
The most disappointing player in 2015 has to be Grigor Dimitrov. Last year the Bulgarian defeated Andy Murray on his way to Wimbledon’s semifinals. Maybe he can find confidence on grass with a few easy early matches, but his issues are running deeper than a slump, and I wouldn't count on him getting past fourth-round opponents Milos Raonic or Nick Kyrgios.
10. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
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Fresh off another French Open semifinal, Tsonga is also a two-time Wimbledon semifinalist (2011-12). He has plenty of power with his serving and groundstrokes, and he is the type of player that could give the very top seeds a host of problems, especially if he gets on the kind of roll he had to win last year’s Rogers Cup for the Canada Open.
The biggest question is if he will be completely healthy. Tsonga has battled an abdominal injury, missing time on three recent grass-court tournaments. He could struggle to find his timing even if he is able to come back strong.
The good news is that Tsonga has a few easy opponents lined up for the first week. If healthy, he could be ready to bring on a worthy challenge against Andy Murray in the fourth round. He does have the advantages of dictating with power against Murray and a possible comeback in Rafael Nadal, if the Spaniard reaches the quarterfinals.
But unless he is truly fit, there's more skepticism than optimism about his chances for a deep Wimbledon run.
9. Rafael Nadal
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From 2006-2011 Rafael Nadal was a two-time champion and three-time runner-up at Wimbledon. In the years since, French Open-fatigue, injuries and some inspired performances from opponents have derailed the Spanish superstar.
In 2015, there are more players with power to attack Nadal, and he has struggled to make it to the second week where he figures to deal better with hard-packed dirt on the baseline.
Although nobody is picking Nadal to win Wimbledon, it’s still possible he could play deep into the second week. He is coming off a grass-court title at Stuttgart, and this could add more belief to his determination to get back to the top of tennis.
The most important thing for Nadal is to be healthy and to believe he can win the title. The draw really doesn't matter much for the Spaniard at this point. He's proven he can dust off cream puffs, so if he can play more like his 2013 championship self he will clobber the likes of Dustin Brown, Viktor Troicki and David Ferrer. If he is truly in the zone he will defeat Andy Murray in the quarterfinals. If not, he isn't going to go further anyway.
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8. Nick Kyrgios
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If Rafael Nadal has the proven success, Nick Kyrgios might be the young player with the biggest chance to dominate Wimbledon in the future. For starters, Kyrgios defeated Nadal at Wimbledon last year on his way to the quarterfinals.
Kyrgios has a huge serve, a next-generation mentality with his forehand and the kind of audacity to hit winners from anywhere on or off the court. If only he could temper this with a more cerebral shot selection, not from the academy of Andy Murray but with his own kind of attacking patience and style.
His he overrated? Right now, yes. He is ranked No. 29 in the world and not supposed to contend. But great young talents have a way of leaping past the learning curve. There’s a bit of Pete Sampras in his game, and at 20 years old he could turn Wimbledon down under.
Can he also go forward after recently parting ways with his coach? Just how strong is his passion to enjoy becoming a tennis champion? He told The Independent that he would rather play basketball, and he was open about his fears of burning out on the ATP Tour.
Poking through Kyrgios' draw, the Aussie should bomb his way through his first two matches, but he could face a big match in third-round opponent Milos Raonic who won their quarterfinals match a year ago. Should be face Stan Wawrinka in the quarterfinals, he might have Novak Djokovic or Marin Cilic waiting on deck. All of this is a massive undertaking, so things may not set up in 2015 for his Wimbledon championship chances.
7. Tomas Berdych
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He is the trivia answer to the other man that Rafael Nadal defeated to win a Wimbledon title. It’s seems like a lifetime since Wimbledon 2010, but for all of his sporadic successes, Tomas Berdych has not made it back to a major final.
Why not win it all in 2015?
Berdych is usually a lock to get to the fourth round, and he has often marched into the quarterfinals. He has big, clean groundstrokes, a good serve—when his high toss is not fluttering in the wind—and enough patience to keep persevering. He might learn a thing or two from new coach Danilu Vallverdu who was with Andy Murray’s Wimbledon championship team two years ago.
What must happen for Berdych to finally break through? He has a few dangerous but inconsistent players (Jeremy Chardy, Ernest Gulbis or Lukas Rosol, Gael Monfils) early in his draw, but Berdych is very good at finishing off streaky players.
The first huge test will be a quarterfinals affair against Roger Federer, and Berdych has won big matches in the past against the Swiss Maestro. He could win that match, but it would also be much tougher on grass where Federer's variety is superior. If Berdych wins that one, there's no reason that he can't give Andy Murray everything he can handle, the winner to play in the Wimbledon final.
It's an outside chance, but things set up better for Berdych than for a couple of players ranked ahead of him.
6. Milos Raonic
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After missing the French Open with a foot injury and minor surgery, Milos Raonic must have been happy to win a couple matches at the prestigious Queen’s Club tournament in London. Although he fell to Gilles Simon, Raonic got in some match play and showed that his serve was as dangerous as ever. He blasted 29 aces to defeat seasoned veteran Richard Gasquet, setting up his quarterfinal match with Simon.
Raonic was a 2014 Wimbledon semifinalist, finally falling to Roger Federer but certainly setting his sights for more bouts with the top players. He showed improved poise in saving match points to defeat Rafael Nadal at Indian Wells earlier this year.
There are two things Raonic must do to put himself in position to win Wimbledon. First, he must dominate tiebreakers. This will frustrate his opponents who have to counter his ballistic missiles time and again.
Second, Raonic must attack better early in the points. He’s often been too passive (the opposite of Nick Kyrgios) in looking to unleash offensive groundstrokes. He is more likely to succeed with his offense than his more plodding defense.
Which players will give him the most trouble in his road back to the final weekend? No question that Nick Kyrgios has greater upside than Milos Raonic and they could meet in the third round for an intriguing match. Maybe Grigor Dimitrov will be there in the fourth round. Eventually he would have to play through Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic (unless they are eliminated earlier) just to reach the Wimbledon final.
5. Stan Wawrinka
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While it’s true that nobody wants to play against Stan Wawrinka’s slow-surfaces power, the second Swissman is more vulnerable on grass’s skidding hops and speed. On the one hand, Wawrinka is a mentally tough server, and he can ride this well into the second week without having to grind out tough clay-court matches.
However, his defensive reflexes are not as keen as the other top players, and this is where he is prone to hit some off-balanced errors. It’s more difficult for him to set up and hit with more protracted strokes.
Then again, he could get on another roll and compete for a third major, the French-Wimbledon double and a sure-fire hall-of-fame invitation. He’s rapidly developed the reputation as a big-match player.
Wild-Card Wawrinka will only get this chance if he can eliminate some early threats. He might square off against Fernando Verdasco or Dominic Thiem, players who can pack a lot of punch of their own. Wawrinka's weakness is his self-destruction when trying to overwhelm lesser players, but he understands that these two are also talented. Maybe this helps him focus his game plan better.
Beyond that, he could be playing someone like Nick Kyrgios or Milos Raonic in the quarterfinals for a blockbuster heavyweight slugfest. And his reward for surviving that? Yes, another rematch against rival Novak Djokovic. Why not? They've met at the other major venues for huge matches. It could be destined.
4. Marin Cilic
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The most surprising thing about Marin Cilic winning his first major at the 2014 U.S. Open was that it was not Wimbledon. Cilic has exceptional grass-court skills and touch, backed up by slam-winning power with his service game and groundstrokes.
A couple years ago, Andy Murray called Cilic one of the best grass-court players in the world. Last year, Cilic’s five-set Wimbledon quarterfinals duel with Novak Djokovic was lost in the shuffle of Djokovic’s more memorable five-set thriller over Roger Federer.
Cilic has been underwhelming in 2015, still searching to find his U.S. Open-form after a long recovery from nagging injuries. Now that the clay-court season is history, he could be one of the legitimate favorites if he gets it going again.
His first two rounds should be a breeze, but Cilic could lock in with a serving duel against John Isner in the third round. He has a much better ground game and should advance. If he does meet Kei Nishikori a round later, expect another dominant effort against the Japanese star on a fast surface. Cilic should be ready to challenge Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals with a solid chance for a win if he plays his best tennis.
Can he win Wimbledon? Absolutely. Will he? The odds are still long.
3. Andy Murray
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Some would pick Andy Murray to win his second Wimbledon. He’s fit, hungry and entering his favorite stretch of the year. He should be able to focus more on tennis rather than worrying about breaking a historical tennis drought for his nation.
Murray is one of the few players who can put pressure on his opponents with both offense and defense. He can endure as well as strike. In the 2013 Wimbledon quarterfinals, he trailed Fernando Verdasco two sets before rallying for the five-set win.
The Scotsman has always shown tenacity and grit in giving himself a chance against the top players. Though Roger Federer was traditionally too powerful in major finals during the early years of their rivalry, Murray would now be the one to win the longer points and matches.
The biggest problem is Novak Djokovic. Breaking an eight-match losing streak will not be easy, but there’s no place he would rather play the Serbian than with massive crowd support on a grass court.
Otherwise, Murray is playing better than the other players in his draw, including possible quarterfinalist Rafael Nadal. He has plenty of advantages, patience and versatility on grass. There's a great chance he and elderly rival Roger Federer will get their semifinal match.
2. Novak Djokovic
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Is it right to put world No.1 and defending Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic at No. 2 for our countdown? The majority of tennis observers rightfully and routinely select the Serbian as the smart and most likely pick to win any tournament.
So why put Djokovic at No. 2?
First, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal have all won grass-court titles while Djokovic has stepped back for rest and regrouping following his disappointing loss in the French Open final. Maybe this will rejuvenate him, but it might have been preferable if he were able to get a few matches on grass before Wimbledon.
His draw has several dangerous opponents beginning with his very first match against Philipp Kohlschreiber. The German is very comfortable on grass and has the capability of pulling off the upset, especially if Djokovic does prove to be rusty.
There are also big hitters like Marin Cilic and Stan Wawrinka as possible opponents in the quarterfinals and semifinals respectively. Djokovic is great on grass, but he is more vulnerable with his footing and with presumably fewer opportunities to extend rallies.
The case for Djokovic in asserting his dominance is his improvement in two areas. He has improved his second serve and is tougher to break than a year ago. Furthermore, he has continued to shore up his net play and could finish off more short points to his advantage.
1. Roger Federer
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There’s no reason to claim that Roger Federer’s seven previous trophies at Wimbledon will help him in 2015. The big thing is the belief and the confidence he has in knowing that he can win this title. That’s important for aging superstars.
More important, Federer nearly defeated Djokovic a year ago at Wimbledon, falling in five sets. He picked up more momentum the second half of the year and has continued to win many of the tournaments on the fastest surfaces including Dubai and Halle. Federer is looking sharper than he was a year ago with his quick-strikes and net pressure.
Furthermore, Federer’s service game is very tough to break on grass. He moves his serve around beautifully and is keen for follow-up strikes. He will play shorter matches and be a match-up difficulty for every opponent including Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic or Stan Wawrinka.
Federer's draw sets up nicely for an easy run to the quarterfinals. He should overwhelm someone like unproven American Jack Sock in the third round, and Feliciano Lopez is a nice draw for the best of possible fourth-round opponents.
The work really begins with establishing the first-set tone against quarterfinalist Tomas Berdych. He matches up well against Andy Murray in the sense that he can impose his kind of game, dictate play and control his destiny to the final where he may or may not see Novak Djokovic.
I like his chances to get Wimbledon No. 8 and major 18. I don't think any one player, including Djokovic is a better bet against the entire field, but Federer might have close to an even chance of a championship celebration.
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