Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Week 12 Buzz, Rumors
The summer has officially arrived, and as expected, temperatures are rising at ballparks around the country—unless we're talking about one of those cozy, climate-controlled domes, that is.
Thermometers aren't the only things heating up, however, as there's been an uptick in chatter around baseball over the past week—though the focus has been split between off-field issues and those that directly impact the actual games being played.
Has a hotshot rookie already surpassed his veteran counterparts as the best at his position? Does an expected change in leadership really change anything for one of baseball's oldest teams? Has new evidence ended one of baseball's most divisive debates once and for all?
We'll hit on all of that and more in this week's edition of "Fact or Fiction."
Fact: Pete Rose Now Has No Chance of Being Reinstated
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There's no middle ground when it comes to Pete Rose. Either you're a supporter of baseball's all-time hits leader and believe he should be reinstated and eligible for the Hall of Fame, or you're not.
So chances are that the new evidence uncovered by ESPN's T.J. Quinn and William Weinbaum—copies of pages from a notebook purported to belong to longtime Rose associate Michael Bertolini that prove Rose bet while an active player—has done little to change your stance.
The problem for Rose, who applied for reinstatement back in March, is that no matter how he disputes this latest allegation, only his supporters will believe him now that he’s been caught in another lie.
Lest we forget, Rose spent 15 years denying everything in 1989's "Dowd Report," which led to his banishment in the first place. It wasn't until his autobiography was published in 2004 that he gave us half of the truth, admitting he bet on baseball while managing the Cincinnati Reds. He was even more candid in a 2007 ESPN Radio interview, saying, "I bet on my team every night. I didn't bet on my team four nights a week. I was wrong."
There's no possible way that Rob Manfred can ignore this latest evidence—or his history of half-truths and lies on the subject—and allow him back into the game in any official capacity.
He bet on the game while in uniform, breaking one of baseball's cardinal rules.
As for the upcoming All-Star Game, which will be held July 14 at Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, that’s a different story.
Allowing Rose to be a guest of the Reds and part of the festivities is the smart thing to do from a public relations standpoint—especially with the high probability that he's been selected as one of the team's greatest living players in MLB's "Franchise Four" voting.
Fiction: Andy MacPhail's Arrival Will Signal Ruben Amaro's Departure
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Watching Ruben Amaro Jr. preside over another trade deadline in Philadelphia is the kind of thing that keeps Phillies fans up at night. As the team's general manager since November 2008, Amaro has become Public Enemy No. 1 in the city of brotherly love, the poster boy for everything that has gone wrong for the club in recent years.
So you can understand why fans are cautiously optimistic that Andy MacPhail's impending arrival as team president—which could happen within the next week or so, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman—will signal the end of Amaro's reign.
Philly fans don't want to hear this, but Amaro isn't going anywhere—at least not yet. The expectation is that MacPhail will spend the rest of the season evaluating Amaro, manager Ryne Sandberg and the rest of the organization before implementing any changes.
"We have some important decisions to make and you don't want to make those decisions on the fly," Pat Gillick, the team's interim president, told Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "This way you can get the feel in which direction you want to go because it is an important decision to make."
Ultimately, as MLB.com's Todd Zolecki writes, MacPhail may choose to add some fresh faces with a new perspective, such as 34-year-old Los Angeles Angels assistant general manager Matt Klentak, who got his start in Baltimore under MacPhail.
But it's not going to happen overnight.
Fact: Teams Will Wait Until After the All-Star Game to Make Substantial Moves
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Last week in this space, Bleacher Report's Luke Strickland noted that the All-Star hosts, the Cincinnati Reds, should not wait until after the Midsummer Classic's festivities to start making moves with an eye toward the future.
"Trading the team's recognizable stars won't be popular," he wrote, "but it's likely necessary to get Cincinnati back to where it wants to be. Using the All-Star Game as a crutch would just delay the inevitable."
Whether it's Cincinnati or another team making the deals, trades between now and the end of July are inevitable. But as Houston GM Jeff Luhnow recently told the Houston Chronicle's Evan Drellich, while teams have shifted their focus to potential moves, we shouldn't expect any of note to go down anytime soon.
"Now people start to look at that (making trades), but there's still so much ambiguity as far as who's in and who's out (of contention). Some of that needs to settle. We've been preparing all season, but I think it'll intensify over the coming weeks."
Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos echoed those thoughts while a recent guest on MLB Network Radio: "Very few teams are willing to do anything early...Really (we) might be the only one willing to do anything now."
While we might see some smaller deals get made, names like Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels and Ben Zobrist will be front and center on the rumor mill but noticeably absent from the transactions page—at least for another few weeks.
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Fiction: Boston Will Be a Major Seller at the Trade Deadline
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Nothing has gone according to plan for the Boston Red Sox this season. The team many picked to go from worst to first for the second time in three years remains languishing in the basement of the American League East.
Everyone knew the team didn't have enough quality pitching before the season began, but the additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval were supposed to ensure the club would be able to outscore its opposition, no matter how many runs the pitching staff allowed.
That hasn't happened, of course, as both Ramirez and Sandoval have struggled, both at the plate and in the field. That's led some, including Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, to suggest that Boston should be looking to unload one if not both of its big free-agent additions as the trade deadline nears.
The problem is that even if Boston could find a team interested in trading for one of them, there's no way the Red Sox are going to get a "fair" package of talent in exchange for them, given their current struggles.
Virtually anyone the Red Sox might consider trading is dealing with the same issue, whether it be Mike Napoli and his .197 batting average, Justin Masterson and his 6.37 ERA or Koji Uehara and his reduced velocity.
Other teams might consider taking one of Boston's underachieving veterans if the Red Sox included the likes of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Swihart or prospects in a deal.
But that's not going to happen, and the Red Sox figure to be more bystander than active participant in the days leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.
Fiction: Carlos Correa Is the Best Shortstop in Baseball
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Just over a week into his major league career, MLB.com's Mike Petriello wrote that Houston Astros' Carlos Correa was "already one of the best shortstops in the American League." The sentiment was reiterated by FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan.
Neither one is necessarily wrong in their assessment, and both use statistical evidence to back up their opinions—from traditional statistics to new-age stats like weighted runs created plus (wRC+). In addition, newer figures like the exit velocity that Statcast is providing has been analyzed as well.
And there's no disputing that Correa passes the eye test. He looks like the total package, able to hit for average and power, get on base consistently and play above-average defense at a premium position.
But is he really already one of the best at his position only 15 games into his major league career, or does it look that way because, as a whole, offensive production from shortstops is down across the board?
Let's use wRC+ as an example. Last season, eight shortstops finished the season with a wRC+ above 100, which is average. Seven more posted a mark between 90 and 99. So far this year, only five shortstops have a wRC+ of 100 or better, with another five falling into that 90-to-99 range.
Currently, Correa boasts a 146 wRC+, which would lead all active shortstops. It would also be one of the 30 highest marks in baseball, regardless of position, if he had enough plate appearances to qualify for the leaderboard.
Nobody disputes that Correa is an elite talent who has done everything the Astros have asked of him thus far. Come next season, Correa may very well be the best that baseball has to offer at shortstop. But that's something that his play over the next three-plus months—not the past two weeks—will dictate.
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs and are current through June 24.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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