Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Studs and Duds for June 22
Following a jam-packed week, several MLB teams will finally take a breather on Monday. This gives DraftKings players a chance to focus on seven games.
Despite the condensed slate, three prominent aces will report for duty. Two get the green light in golden matchups, while the other, facing harder times, is passable. After those guys, few safe and attractive options exist.
On the bright side, those shaky pitchers pave the way for hitting plays. With fewer choices on the menu, it's easier to locate the true gems.
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Pitching Studs
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers ($12,700) at Cubs
Duh doy. Clayton Kershaw strikes out 11.81 batters per nine innings, and only the Houston Astros strike out more than the Chicago Cubs. Nobody needs to be sold on Kershaw.
Michael Pineda, New York Yankees ($9,300) vs. Phillies
Picking on the Philadelphia Phillies is too easy, but how can anyone ignore Michael Pineda against baseball's weakest offense?
The New York Yankees righty doesn't need such a vulnerable target to illicit a high buy-in rate. Despite his 3.54 ERA, his 2.68 fielding independent pitching (FIP) ranks ninth among qualified starters. Harnessing 9.63 strikeouts and 1.22 walks per nine innings, only Max Scherzer boasts a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio:
| 1 | Max Scherzer | 8.79 |
| 2 | Michael Pineda | 7.91 |
| 3 | Bartolo Colon | 7.56 |
| 4 | Matt Harvey | 6.20 |
| 5 | Jason Hammel | 6.14 |
With Kevin Correia facing the New York Yankees inside Yankee Stadium, it's hard to envision a scenario in which Pineda doesn't cruise to a victory. Don't overreact to the Phillies burning Michael Wacha for five runs on Sunday.
Tommy Milone, Minnesota Twins ($6,000) vs. White Sox
Feeling bold? In need of a daring adventure to start the week? Or just want a cheap tournament flier to spend heavily on offense? In that case, cover your nose and take the plunge on Tommy Milone.
The 28-year-old has churned out two impressive starts, allowing three runs through 14 innings while issuing 13 strikeouts. Yet this recommendation is entirely due to his matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who own baseball's worst .536 OPS and .240 weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus southpaws.
Pitching Duds
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners ($10,900) vs. Royals
Kershaw gets the strikeout-prone Cubs, and Pineda faces the atrocious Phillies. Felix Hernandez, on the other hand, squares off against the Kansas City Royals, a DFS nightmare for opposing pitchers. Not only do they possess a top-10 wOBA, they're the toughest team to strike out.
Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels ($7,200) vs. Astros
There's too much regression waiting to happen here. Hector Santiago has submitted a 2.79 ERA despite his 3.32 BB/9 rate, a 29.1 ground-ball percentage and 4.39 FIP. While a good strikeout candidate against the Houston Astros, the extreme fly-ball pitcher will play with fire against a team constantly swinging for the fences.
Hitting Studs
2B Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins ($5,000) vs. White Sox
He'll cost a pretty penny, but Brian Dozier is worth playing for anyone not using a combination of Kershaw, Hernandez and Pineda. The second baseman is a career .281/.349/.515 hitter against lefties, and righties are destroying John Danks all year.
Danks has already surrendered 10 home runs against righties alongside a .307/.359/.550 slash line. Consider bringing some of Dozier's friends along for the party, with Trevor Plouffe ($4,000), Torii Hunter ($3,800) and Byron Buxton ($3,800) presenting more affordable stacking complements.
OF Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers ($4,000) at Cubs
As a result of hitting 4-for-29 over a seven-game stretch before Sunday night, DraftKings bumped Yasiel Puig's price down to $4,000. Considering the slugger went 10-for-16 with two doubles and a homer before this mini-slump, there's no reason to worry about his health coming off the disabled list.
Over his career, Puig is an equally potent hitter against lefties and righties. Yet he walks more (12.0 percent) and strikes out less (17.5 percent) against southpaws and has torched them to a 1.117 OPS during an extremely small sample size (20 plate appearances) during 2015.
A player of his caliber for $4,000 is a steal, especially since Tsuyoshi Wada isn't an overly alarming matchup.
OF Ryan Raburn, Cleveland Indians ($2,800) vs. Tigers
The Cleveland Indians are facing a lefty—a mediocre one at that in the Detroit Tigers' Kyle Ryan—which means everyone should get Ryan Raburn into his or her lineup. A pure platoon player, Raburn always gets the nod against southpaws, whom he has crushed to a tune of .310/.302/.536 this season.
Ryan has reverse splits over his brief career, but the data is too limited to pass on Raburn for $2,800. His trouble against righties, however, makes a full Cleveland stack worth considering.
Stack: Seattle Mariners vs. Royals (RHP Joe Blanton)
Joe Blanton has allowed four earned runs through 20 innings this year, but he's still a 34-year-old who retired last year after 2013's 6.04 ERA relegated him to the minors. Most of his success has come from the bullpen, so expect the veteran to regress during his second start of the season.
Although far from baseball's most feared offense, the Seattle Mariners have enough affordable hitters to fill out a Kershaw-Pineda lineup. Logan Morrison, Brad Miller and Seth Smith are all lefties priced below $4,000 who fare better against opposite-handed pitchers.
| 1B/OF Logan Morrison | 204 | .275 | .353 | .456 | 8 | $3,800 |
| OF Seth Smith | 203 | .251 | .330 | .458 | 5 | $3,800 |
| SS Brad Miller | 187 | .255 | .348 | .453 | 6 | $3,700 |
Robinson Cano is long overdue for his first home run this month, but he's far from a buy-low bargain at $4,200.
Hitting Duds
C Russell Martin, Toronto Blue Jays ($4,500) at Rays
Russell Martin hits significantly better against lefties and inside the Rogers Centre than versus righties and/or on the road. On Monday, he'll face right-hander Matt Andriese in Tampa Bay.
Martin's still a terrific player, but this isn't the day to purchase him for full price. Either punt catcher or go with Brian McCann, who will tee off against Correia at home.
OF Domonic Brown, Philadelphia Phillies ($3,900) at NY Yankees
Domonic Brown has a .217 slugging percentage this season and hasn't secured an extra-base hit since his call-up. Why does he cost $3,900?
Note: Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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