Adrien Broner vs. Shawn Porter: Odds and Predictions Before Weigh-in Results
Adrien Broner and Shawn Porter enter their bout Saturday night at similar points in their careers. Each is in his mid-20s, and each is a former world champion on the comeback trail. Each man has lost just once.
The fact that both men are young, highly regarded and desperate to win is reflected in the extremely close betting odds heading into their clash. Odds Shark had Porter opening as a slight favorite at minus-152.
The odds have only tightened as the fight has grown closer, with Porter, 27, now listed at between minus-130 and minus-135. Broner, 25, can scarcely be called an underdog, now drawing odds of an even plus-100 to plus-115.
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Boxing writers and other experts have been similarly conflicted over whom to pick for this fight. While the panel on RingTV.com came down 13-8 in favor of Broner, many of the prognosticators called the fight a "50-50" or "Pick 'em" fight.
Picking for RingTV.com, multiple-division champion Robert Guerrero chose Porter to edge Broner by split decision: "This is a very evenly matched fight but I’m leaning towards Porter because he’s had more experience fighting at welterweight. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if Broner wins, I’m still picking Porter to win a close split decision."
British boxing legend Ricky Hatton saw the fight in a similar manner to Guerrero, though he chose Broner to win: "It's a 50-50 fight. Styles make fights but if I have to pick then I will go with Broner. He likes boxers who come at him to fight and then he likes to stand off, using the shoulder roll and pick his shots a lot like Floyd (Mayweather Jr.) does, so I will go with Broner."
Many on the panel pointed to the fight's 144-pound catchweight limit as a decisive factor in their analysis. RingTV.com's Lee Groves saw it that way:
"This is a very difficult pick because both have flaws that can be exploited by each other. The 144-pound catchweight will definitely benefit Broner, whose performances at the full welterweight limit haven’t been as impressive as those at lighter weights. Porter began his career at 165 and 144 will be the lowest weight of his career, which he achieved against Anges Adjaho more than four years ago. If Porter’s body can recover from the strain, he can give Broner problems (pun intended), especially since Broner is one of the sport’s slowest starters. Because I think Broner is the more explosive fighter, whose fast punches can crack the tender scar tissue above Porter’s eyes, he will do just enough to win a hard-fought decision.
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Norm Frauenheim of The Ring magazine and 15Rounds.com (via RingTV.com) pointed out that Porter is already large for a welterweight, let alone for a welterweight dropping another three pounds:
"Scales in a pick ‘em fight are tipped against Shawn Porter by a catchweight. It looked as if Porter had a tough time making 147 in his last outing. It’ll be even tougher to make 144, especially against Broner, who will use his advantages in reach and speed to make Porter chase him early. A tired Porter figures to be an easy target in the final rounds, allowing Broner to win on the cards.
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While acknowledging that the catchweight could be a factor, The Boxing Tribune picked Porter, noting that the style matchup would seem to favor him, at least on paper:
"Broner has had trouble dealing with larger fighters who apply pressure. He doesn’t punch often enough to deter their attacks. Defensively he has adopted a Mayweather-style defense, which worked when he was competing in the lightweight and junior lightweight divisions. It’s been less effective as he’s moved up. Shawn Porter’s style, on paper, will present a lot of problems for Broner and his low output attack.
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Bleacher Report's own Kevin McRae picked Porter for similar reasons in his preview earlier this week:
"Broner doesn't like to be bullied.
He's uncomfortable with a fighter who can out muscle him on the inside.
Porter should be able to do both, so long as he doesn't have any problems dropping the extra three pounds to get within the catchweight limit.
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It's always exciting to have two young, talented boxers facing off in a fight where each man is viewed as having an outstanding chance of winning. NBC will broadcast this fight at 8:30 p.m. ET, giving it a large amount of potential to reach a mainstream audience. It should be an ideal fight for that sort of time slot.
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