Bills vs AFC East: a Cold Prediction

Buffalo, I wish I could say this was your year.

Really and truly I do. 

You’re celebrating a 50^th anniversary this year. That in itself is a major accomplishment for a little team from a blue collar city saddled with fame for creating buffalo wings and, apparently, snow. 

The Bills have been to four Super Bowls (all last decade and all to unfortunate result), have sent nine players, coaches, and, most recently, their beloved owner Ralph Wilson Jr. to the Hall of Fame in Canton, and were an amazing 103-57 during the '90s.

Do you begin to see the problem, though?

The past is pressing down as the Bills just can’t seem to recapture that glory and power of a decade ago. Those memories of almost touching greatness have begun to seem like a cold lake effect breeze off Lake Erie in January. 

Where once was a city of die hard fans who reveled in the warm embrace of their football domination, there now stands a cold, grey city of uncertainty ready for the upcoming seasons with sighs of expectation and that yearly motto of “maybe this year.”. 

Now, they’ve watched the preseason disaster, mumbling about the absence of their supposed savior TO (surprisingly close to “toe”, eh?) and their chosen quarterback, Trent Edwards, who managed a measly 189 yds and 3 INTs in his brief appearances. 

Of course, they’ll say that a 1-4 record and 7 TD’s in 5 preseason games doesn’t mean anything, but the Bills aren’t showing signs of resurrecting their golden years and people in the Queen City are starting to sweat.

Just look at the ownership, opting to drop offensive coordinator Turk Schonert in favor of the QB coach and former perennial Bills backup Alex Van Pelt.  This with just over a week until their Monday night opener versus the newly rebuilt Tom Brady and his near perfect New England Patriots. 

Oh, and did you know this particular divisional game is being played in Foxborough, who haven’t seen Brady in over a year?  Not a great way to start the season, but it gets even worse from there as the Bills have drawn the sixth hardest schedule in the league.

So, with a regular season schedule that boasts southern talents like the New Orleans and Carolina early and Tennessee, Atlanta, and a regular season finale against the Colts, the smart thing for Buffalo would be to just win the division rather than look for a wild card into the playoffs. 

A fine plan really, except for the rest of the AFC East who, apart from the NFC North, has emerged as one of the strongest, young divisions in the NFL.

Seriously. 

When you’ve been posting 7-9 records the last three years in a division where 11-5 doesn’t even get you a playoff berth, let alone a division title, you know that change in Buffalo might have to be more than adding a wide receiver.  The thing is, the other three teams in the division are getting better as well and Buffalo seems to still be playing catch up this season.

Take the Patriots (please).  They lost their star, franchise, golden armed quarterback in the first quarter of the first game last season. Still, they went on to post the 5^th best offense in the NFL anyway, averaging just over 25 pts per game with a guy who hadn’t started a game since high school. 

Granted, one of the easiest schedules in the league and a top ten defense helped, but the numbers were still there and Belichick’s boys almost punched their eighth straight playoff ticket, losing the division for the first time in that run to a Dolphins team that won the regular season tie breaker. 

Regardless, they proved that the team is still thriving under the Belichick mantra, with a 3-4 scheme that still gave fits to opposing QBs and a running back by committee system that put up the 6^th best numbers in the league.

Now, Brady has returned sporting a surgically repaired, Six Million Dollar Man knee and a year of pent up football under his skin. This basically throws those 2008 stats out the window and takes us back to a team that was a Super Bowl victory away from perfect the year before.  

You’ve seen Moss’s abilities, you’ve seen Welker’s elusiveness, and you’ve seen the Faulk, Maroney, Morris running beast behind that impenetrable offensive line.  Those things still remain the same.

The team looked fine and strong in their 2009 preseason wins, with Brady putting up 307 yards and 4 TDs with scarcely a limp.  Frighteningly, the offense has gotten even deeper this season with veteran Fred Taylor bringing his 70 rushing TDs and WR Joey Galloway looking to grab at greatness once more after several 1,000 yards seasons in Tampa.  The offense is…intimidating.  There really is no reason why the Pats won't be able to recapture their 2007 lightening in a bottle again and are the clear favorites to win this division.

Oh Buffalo, don’t go losing heart yet.  Thankfully, there is a glimmer of hope, a chink in the armor of the Patriots this season that wasn’t there for the last few.  Don’t get too excited here, but the vaunted Bill Belichick looks to be fielding one of his more uncertain defenses of the past decade. 

The Patriots D, unlike their O, have gotten younger, especially at linebacker, with Vrabel going with Cassel to Kansas City, and Bruschi retiring after more than doing his service to God, country, and Patriot nation.  On top of that, the secondary, once full of names like Ty Law and Rodney Harrison, is now full of solid, but untested youngsters which the Pats hope to remedy with the acquisition of Shawn Springs from Washington and Leigh Bodden from Detroit.  

While the draft picks learn the system, Springs and Bodden will be looking to aid Brandon Meriweather in getting more than the 14 INTs of last season and remove the deep threat from their opponent’s repertoire.

Their linebackers will work to adjust to losing to veterans in the same season.  Look for Pierre Woods and Gary Guyton to get more than 26 tackles a piece this season to assuage the hurt of veteran losses.

This, coupled with a defensive line that was 31^st in sacks last year and still looks to be young and inexperienced, could mean good news for the Bills this season, but I wouldn’t bet on it.  The Buffalo offensive line has a new starter at every position this year after losing Pro Bowler Jason Peters too disgruntlement and the Eagles. Don’t look for Trent Edwards to have too much time to pick apart the diminished Pats secondary and linebacking corps, no matter how many stud receivers they have at their disposal this year. 

The running backs will suffer similar O-line problems, especially in the opener when Marshawn Lynch will be unavailable due to his poor, almost Plaxico-ish judgment in carrying a firearm.  Without holes in the line and big men to make them, the defense’s youth may not be an issue in stopping the Bills.

The Patriots are still the team to beat in the East and any hopes of Buffalo ending up atop the division have to go through New England, but what about the more questionable Fins and J-E-T-S  Jets, Jets, Jets?

Miami shocked the world last year with the Tuna turning a 1-15 team into an 11-5 Wildcat juggernaut that garnered not only a playoff spot and division title, but a second Comeback Player of the Year award for Chad Pennington. 

This year, look for more of the same, though there has to be an expectation that, from the look of the rest of the NFL (see the Eagles and Vikings), the Wildcat won’t be surprising anyone this year. 

Pat White, however, may add enough new wrinkles to the formation to make it work, though, as we too often saw Pennington on the bench last year.  White’s NCAA record 4,480 yards of rushing at West Virginia make him the perfect QB to run the Wildcat around, and his extra year of college experience was essential in Miami giving him the second round nod.  If Ted Ginn Jr., Ronnie Brown, and White can get some real work in together, the trio could become memorable in Miami.

Speaking of Ronnie Brown, look for him to establish himself this season as more than just a fad formation back, as he’ll work to continue growing after a 10 touchdown 916 yard season. Ricky Williams will play second fiddle and round out the ground threat.

Ginn Jr. also needs to step it up this year and take his 790 yards and 4 TDs into the 1,000+ yards, double digit TD realm of the elite receivers in the league.  These two are the future of the Miami offense and this is the season for them to step up and be seen.

The defense stayed incredibly healthy last year, which came in real handy considering the lack of depth available to them on that side of the ball.  They drafted some rookie corners this year to start to shore up the secondary and brought back Jason Taylor from the Redskins, but will their pass rush be more than Joey Porter this year?  25^th against the pass last year won’t be enough to compete for the division title this year, nor will a combined 5 sacks from their starting front 3 last year. 

In order for the Bills to take on Miami, they will have to make sure the defense is fast and ready for the trickery Sporano has effected in south Florida.  With the hardest schedule in the NFL this year, one of the true measures of Miami's season comes late in November, with a trip to snowy Buffalo in Week 12 after a month of four road games. 

If they're still kicking that late in the season, the Bills may be looking up at them again this year come season’s end.  Trent Edwards will need to use Owens and Evans as often as he has time for come this season and will need to take advantage of that lack of pass pressure Miami offers. 

The Bills also need D-lineman Aaron Maybin and a healthy Aaron Schobel to run over Pro Bowler and second year man Jake Long, putting some real pressure on Pennington if they want to succeed in the South.

Give them credit, no one saw Miami coming last year, but with the loss of surprise, there is no reason that a hungry Bills teams can’t take at least one of those divisional matchups from a young team needing another season to gel.

This leaves us with an even bigger question mark in the form of our final AFC East opponent, the New York Jets.  With Favre safely in another state and conference, they’ll be looking to the future in the forms of ex-Baltimore defensive coach Rex Ryan and rookie QB Mark Sanchez, both coming in with monster reputations and little to no experience in their current jobs. 

Ryan created a merciless Baltimore defense and has already brought in some personnel to New York with the acquisitions of LB Bart Scott and DE Marques Douglas from the Ravens, as well as Lito Sheppard from the Eagles. 

Look for an immediate improvement on the 29^th ranked run defense from a year ago, as well as a return of the top 10 pass defense they posted a year ago.  Scott marks perhaps the biggest defensive addition of the offseason, bringing with him a fire, intensity, solid numbers, speed, and an understanding of Ryan’s schemes. 

The Jets have the easiest of the AFC East schedules, but still rank 7^th league wide, so they’ll have to rely heavily on their defense while their offense is given time to grow.

And grow they must.

Sanchez posted almost 4,000 yards and 42 touchdowns at USC, but has never started in the NFL and will be seeing New England and New Orleans in the first four weeks of his career.  Wading out into a division looking for an offense to compete with the Patriots, Sanchez and the passing game may be given a back seat in the face of Ryan’s stated commitment to the run. 

With Pro Bowler Thomas Jones coming off a 1312 yard season and a still intact offensive line that looked more than solid last season, the ninth ranked run attack should be able to carry the rookie QB well into the season, giving Sanchez time to acclimate.

Remember, Ryan was given first hand lessons on rookie quarterback success last season and will look to apply the same methods that were so successful with Joe Flacco last season. 

The down note for the young offense is in their wide receiver depth, which is next to none once you get past Jerhico Cotchery and realize that Lavernius Coles is now a Bengal.  Can you name one other Jets wideout? 

Buffalo, it’s going to be hard to know what to expect out of the Jets this year, which is similar to the head scratching they cause teams last year with Favre.  Expect a smash mouth Jets team this year looking to buy time for their rookie QB to mature, so pass rush and run stop are the keys to stopping New York this season, which means the front line in Buffalo needs to get good in a hurry. 

To add insult to injury, though, the Bills are in the third year of their lending program to Toronto. This means their crowd will have to pull out their passports and travel north in order to root for the home team against New York in December, normally a great home field advantage for the snow loving Bills.  Ralph Wilson Stadium is one of the hardest places to play in the winter, moving that late season advantage indoors may be the deciding factor in a close game this year.

Ryan’s defense looks just about tops in the AFC East this year, leaving Buffalo hoping that their already suspect O-line and, as a result, jumpy quarterback will be able to find the receivers and holes to punch it in for some much needed offense.  Without scores, the Jets simple offensive scheme will tire out and overwhelm the Bills, leaving them ripe for a late game come from behind loss.  Though they may not grab the top spot in their division this year, look for the Jets to become better with Sanchez and compete in the next few years for the AFC East crown.

Buffalo, you’re season is not a rosy one this year.

Putting on our frosted glasses of optimism, hope remains that the offense will come together despite the lack of protection in the backfield.

 In a perfect season, Edwards will return to the confidence and form that won him the starting job two seasons ago, giving him the ability to spot Evans in single coverage when the defenders pull off to double team Owens, now a model sportsman, in the slot. 

In a perfect season, Lynch will return from his suspension contrite and hungry, finding holes and driving the pile forward for red zone touchdowns, a rarity in Buffalo these past few years. 

In a perfect season, the Bills young defense will find the ball in their hands more often, will rush the quarterback and disrupt the schemes, and will stomp through the AFC East with authoritative hits and impressive stops.

 In a perfect season, the Bills could take the East crown from New England and return it to its early nineties home.

We’ll see, but if you listen closely, you can already hear the fans speaking about next year and the truth is 7-9 is about what we can expect out of Buffalo this season, despite the TO factor (which I maintain is a good thing and will end amicably and without wrecking the team).  The Bills are improving, but so is the rest of the East and I just don’t think they’re moving at the same pace.  Not this year, at least.  The offense can’t help but improve from 25^th, but it won’t be enough to take the division, and next year may see a new coach and QB as a result.

Sorry Buffalo, but you’ll once more be left with only memories to warm you this winter.

Better luck next year.