Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 10's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice
Trading is a tough skill for even the most experienced fantasy baseball managers to master.
Making that first offer can cause anxiety for a kind soul sensitive of others' feelings. You of course want to optimize the transaction on your end, but insulting the other person won't accomplish anything, either.
When an offer of Chris Carter for Chris Sale arrives in your inbox, that halts any chance of negotiating a mutually beneficial deal down the road.
That's why the concept of buying low and selling high is far trickier than it seems. A timid manager may have shied away from inquiring about Corey Kluber before his inevitable turnaround. After all, who would be silly enough to trade the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner after a messy April?
And surely nobody would cough up a significant haul for Bartolo Colon without anticipating the contact pitcher eventually getting roughed up, right?
Then again, you never know until you ask. With that in mind, toss out a feeler for these underachievers and/or place these overperformers on the trade block.
Buy Low: David Ortiz, 1B/DH, Boston Red Sox
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David Ortiz is hitting .220/.296/.385 with seven home runs. At this pace, he'll fail to deliver 23 or more homers for the first time in 13 seasons with the Boston Red Sox. For owners hoping to see a cited stat that magically explains away a horrendous start, sorry.
While his .231 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is well below his .300 career clip, his hard-hit average has depreciated from 45 to 32.9 percent. He has also posted a career-high 45.1 ground-ball percentage, and extreme shifts have taken away several hits from the lefty pull hitter.
So why bother taking a chance on Ortiz? He's a career .283/.377/.542 hitter who recorded a slugging percentage above .500 in each of the last five years. It's certainly feasible for the wheels to fall off a 39-year-old masher, but he showed little sign of regression, yet alone disintegration, before this season.
Big Papi hasn't lost his cool at the plate, maintaining steady strikeout (10.2) and walk (15.9) percentages. No shift can stop a ball from landing in the stands, and Bryce Harper was nine years old the last time Ortiz fell shy of a 20-homer season (2001).
The buy-low indication is important here. He no longer warrants the same price he would have in March, and he's probably no longer a top-100 option going forward. If someone, however, is willing to abandon ship and sell him for peanuts, take the chance.
Sell High: Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Boston Red Sox
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Eduardo Rodriguez answered Boston's prayers, providing its decrepit rotation a revelational spark. In three starts since his call-up, the 22-year-old southpaw has allowed just one run, collecting 21 strikeouts through 20.2 innings.
For anyone playing in the 32 percent of non-competitive Yahoo leagues, pick him up now. As for active players who grabbed him after his first or second outing, find out if the hoopla is getting out of hand.
Since he is not a better version of Pedro Martinez, Rodriguez obviously won't sustain his 0.44 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. He has benefited from some incredible early fortune, stranding every single baserunner with a .149 BABIP.
The rookie also deserves credit for issuing seven strikeouts every start, but don't bank on those gaudy numbers lasting. He didn't conquer Triple-A batters in the same fashion, tallying 8.19 strikeouts per nine innings through eight starts. Last year, he posted a 7.51 K/9 in 16 Double-A games.
Although a highly regarded arm, Rodriguez was never a superstar prospect like Noah Syndergaard simply waiting for his chance to shine. He got his chance for a spot start and never looked back, but Boston and fantasy owners can't expect him to keep this up.
Buy Low: Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians
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Last week's addition suggested offering Michael Wacha for Carlos Carrasco, whose true buy-low window seemingly passed. Based on the reader pushback to that hypothetical swap along with a recent poor start, it may not be too late to steal the Cleveland Indians righty.
The Baltimore Orioles vaulted his ERA to 4.35 with a five-run showing on Sunday, marking his third five-run outing of the season. Yet he doesn't remain far off from the guy who notched a 2.55 ERA last year. Despite those crooked starts, he has also compiled 77 strikeouts, 17 walks and a 2.79 FIP.
There's nothing wrong with Carrasco, and his .333 BABIP and 67.9 strand rate pop off his FanGraphs page. Some better fortune on those fronts, and he's right back to the breakout guy who stacked up three straight stellar starts before Baltimore roughed him up.
Carrasco also began slow last year, entering the All-Star break with a 3.74 ERA despite a 3.10 FIP. From that point forward, he dominated, generating a 1.72 ERA, 9.8 K/9 ratio and .253 opposing slugging percentage. If that guy returns, which is well in the realm of possibility, he can still finish 2015 as a top-20 starter.
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Sell High: Dee Gordon, 2B, Miami Marlins
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Perhaps this is personal retribution from someone who screamed regression all spring. Dee Gordon has instead taken a step forward into superstardom, batting an MLB-high .356 with 20 stolen bases, trailing only the .222-hitting Billy Hamilton's 25 steals.
Rather than admit defeat, let's double down with another warning for immense regression ahead.
When Gordon batted a career-high .289 with a 4.8 walk percentage last season, that seemed unsustainable. Now that's child's play as he competes for the batting title despite drawing 10 walks in 261 plate appearances.
Gordon has yet to draw a free pass in June, during which he has fallen to earth by hitting 10-for-40 with two extra-base hits, both doubles. As fun as his Ichiro impression was, the slap hitter won't keep it going when baseball's highest BABIP (.417) normalizes.
His speed isn't going anywhere, so rotisserie players with no other steals sources should keep that in mind. Anyone who has built a comfortable lead in that category thanks to Gordon, however, needs to throw him on the market. Once the average falls, he's back to predominantly being a one-category contributor.
Buy Low: Craig Kimbrel, RP, San Diego Padres
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At this point of the season, owners should all know where they stand on saves. While opportunities fluctuate, many fantasy managers are left grasping for closers or wondering what to do with their surplus.
While taking a top-tier closer is rarely recommendable on draft day, all that goes out the window during the season. Ninth-inning assignments change over the year, but a pickup isn't always enough to plug a hole.
Relievers are also the most susceptible to vast swings in production due to limited sample sizes. Craig Kimbrel, a rare beacon of consistency from the bullpen, is the latest victim of variance. Through 23 innings, he sports a 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP despite tallying 34 strikeouts and a 3.02 FIP.
Which are we going to believe, 23 innings or the previous 289 since late 2010 that implicate him as baseball's premier reliever? Sure, his line-drive rate (28.8 percent) is higher than ever before, but he's still throwing gas and generating whiffs at a prolific level.
Despite never allowing more than four homers in a single season, he has surrendered three before June. Kimbrel hasn't surrendered a run in his last eight appearances, so take one last stab at snagging him for a discount.
Sell High: Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
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Did you beat everyone to the waiver wire for Carlos Correa? Great, now turn around and see what those spurned peers will offer for the recently promoted shortstop.
Whenever a blue-chip prospect makes his highly anticipated debut, gamers have a chance to immediately exploit the hype. Yes, the 2012 No. 1 overall pick is a super-exciting shortstop with power and speed. At his peak, he may rule the position one day, so grab on for dear life in dynasty formats.
In mixed leagues, however, remember that Correa is a 20-year-old who hit .276/.345/.449 in Triple-A before receiving his big break. He's ready to make an instant fantasy impact, but not at the level some owners might anticipate.
Through three games, he has gone 4-for-12 with a homer and steal. He has also yet to draw a walk, but this microscopic sample size remains too small to draw any conclusions. An experienced gamer knows this, but plenty of Overreactionary Olivers out there will see stars in their eyes.
The position's scarcity makes Correa a borderline top-10 shortstop going forward, which is great for gamers who stashed or recently added him. Yet wouldn't it be greater if the rookie netted a better immediate contributor before going through his growing pains?
All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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