UFC 188: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
UFC returns to Mexico City this Saturday for the heavyweight title fight they failed to get last year. Champion Cain Velasquez squares off against now-interim champion Fabricio Werdum in the main event of UFC 188.
Elite lightweights Gilbert Melendez and Eddie Alvarez compete in the evening's co-main event.
UFC 188 has shaped up to be a solid fight card promising to deliver quality MMA action all evening long. But where can you find value on this fight card? That is what we are going to look at. The main card odds have a couple of lopsided bouts, but there may be a spot to take a chance or two.
The main card action gets underway live on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET this Saturday. You have plenty of time to use this information and evaluate your options. Without further ado, let's check out the event.
This is your look at the main card betting odds complete with fight predictions.
All odds provided by OddsShark.com.
Tecia Torres (-300) vs. Angela Hill (+230)
1 of 5
Tecia Torres can establish herself as a true title contender in the strawweight division with a dominant victory on Saturday, but her style could make this fight more competitive than it needs to be.
Angela Hill is also a striker. She will want to test herself against Torres toe-to-toe. Her development from her time on The Ultimate Fighter until now has been excellent, but she still isn't a solid grappler. That is where Torres has an advantage. She has spent several years training at American Top Team along with Jessica Aguilar.
This could be a fun, competitive striking exchange, or Torres can show off her grappling and finish Hill. It would be her first career finish. And that's what I think will happen.
The elevation of Mexico City will play a big role in this fight. Torres' pressure and grappling will make Hill suck wind by the middle of the second round. Torres will score a takedown, advance position and sink in a rear-naked choke.
I don't feel there is any value on this fight as Hill isn't a viable underdog. Skip this fight completely.
Prediction: Torres defeats Hill via submission in the second round
The Play: Skip this fight
Yair Rodriguez (+175) vs. Charles Rosa (-225)
2 of 5
This could be your sleeper for Fight of the Night.
Yair Rodriguez won the featherweight portion of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America, and now he returns for a second fight in Mexico City. The UFC did not gift him a fight for UFC 188. Charles Rosa is 1-1 in the UFC, but both fights have come against solid competition. He dropped a decision to Dennis Siver but submitted Sean Soriano.
With that kind of record under the bright lights, it is not surprise Rosa is the favorite, but I think there is some value on Rodriguez. The first TUF: Latin America winner would not be placed in a squash match on the PPV card. The UFC matchmakers have to feel he can at least be competitive.
He can be.
Rodriguez and Rosa will be in a back-and-forth fight that will come down to who can win the final round. The judges will give the decision to Rodriguez. It'll be close, but I think the TUF winner can claim a second UFC victory in a slight upset.
Prediction: Rodriguez defeats Rosa by decision
The Play: A small play on Rodriguez
Kelvin Gastelum (-450) vs. Nate Marquardt (+325)
3 of 5
Kelvin Gastelum moves back up to middleweight for his UFC 188 fight against Nate Marquardt, and I think this will make him even more dangerous.
Gastelum won't be drawn out from a strenuous weight cut, and Marquardt isn't a huge middleweight. He, too, was a former welterweight making a hard weight cut. He won't be outmuscled in this matchup. That's key.
Marquardt has lost four of his last five and has twice been knocked out. This will be his swan song as Gastelum cleans his clock. His chin is not holding up, and Gastelum hits very hard. It is not a winning combination.
Gastelum is just a better fighter in nearly every facet. The loss to Tyron Woodley was a learning experience for the former welterweight, and after pasting Marquardt in the first five minutes, he will re-establish himself as one of the UFC's top prospects.
Unfortunately, there isn't any value here.
Prediction: Gastelum defeats Marquardt by KO in the first round
The Play: No value
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Gilbert Melendez (-185) vs. Eddie Alvarez (+150)
4 of 5
Gilbert Melendez is 1-2 in the UFC, but he has performed better than his record suggests. After dropping his last fight against Anthony Pettis, he sounded like a fighter who knows his days are numbered. That gives him a little trepidation in a fight against Eddie Alvarez.
Alvarez got beat by Donald Cerrone in his UFC debut. This is a chance, and maybe his last one, to show the world why he is considered a Top 10 lightweight.
Alvarez-Melendez is a perfect stylistic matchup. The way these two come out to scrap ensures that this will be an electric fight. They will meet in the center and throw down. The question is who can get the better of the exchanges?
I lean toward Melendez. He has proved he can take some hard shots and keep coming. His grappling is also a notch above Alvarez's. It gives him just a little bit more of an edge in case Alvarez does connect flush. But if Melendez is on the downside of his career, I wouldn't be shocked to see Alvarez's speed be the ultimate difference.
Melendez should have plenty left to get this win. And a win moves him back into the thick of the lightweight title picture.
I think there's value on both men. If you feel strongly one way or the other, you should trust your gut. I feel more comfortable with Melendez. He has more quality performances to his credit.
Prediction: Melendez defeats Alvarez via submission in the third round
The Play: A firm play on Melendez
Cain Velasquez (-550) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+375)
5 of 5
Cain Velasquez has been away from the UFC cage since October 2013, and since that time Fabricio Werdum has transformed into a well-tooled fighter.
It makes this main event extremely interesting.
We do not know how Velasquez will look in his return, and Werdum's world-class jiu-jitsu may make Velasquez reconsider taking this fight to the mat. And on the feet, Werdum has a wide variety of strikes he can hit Velasquez with. Velasquez may be more technical and the faster fighter, but he is not clearly superior anywhere in this matchup.
If the old Velasquez returns in form, he will run right through Werdum. His pressure is unrelenting. It is amazing to watch him break fighters. Velasquez's hands have even improved drastically to make him a force on the feet. Werdum has the ability to snatch a win out of nowhere, but he won't have the space to do it. Velasquez will be all over him.
At nearly 4-1 odds, I do think Werdum is worth a small play. He's simply too dangerous. It may even be more beneficial to locate a prop bet on Werdum finishing via submission. But in a straight-up pick, I have to favor Velasquez. He's the best heavyweight in MMA history.
Prediction: Velasquez defeats Werdum by TKO in the third round
The Play: Take a very small shot on Werdum at these odds
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