MLB's 2015 Comeback POY Race Headlined by Huge Star Power
Baseball is turning up the dimmer switch this season.
Last year the shine was scrubbed off a number of Major League Baseball stars, including former MVPs, home run kings, aces and even a one-time can’t-miss prospect. For whatever reasons—suspension, natural decline, major injury and/or simply not living up to expectations—several big names just did not produce in 2014; therefore, expectations for this season were limited.
But two months into this season, those stars are beaming once again.
These guys are not just better and healthier than they were last season, or whenever they played last. They are some of the most productive players in their respective leagues and quality candidates for the American League and National League Comeback Players of the Year, if not more significant awards.
In order of star power (smallest to biggest), here are the candidates.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
So many people want to put Votto in this category, but he does not truly belong. Not because he is not good enough this season, but because his production never really fell off enough last season. Anyone who pays attention to numbers other than batting average and home runs should understand that Votto was still a very good offensive player in 2014 in his limited games.
He put up a 126 OPS+ last season, and even though his OBP (.390) was the lowest it had been since 2008, it was still well above the NL average of .314. On top of that, Votto has said publicly that he is not as concerned about hitting home runs anymore as he is about not making outs. So the loss of power was not so much a drop-off as a conscious effort to keep his OBP high and strikeouts down.
Yes, Votto was injured. But his leg injury, though it could have sapped some power, did not keep Votto from being productive the way injuries to Prince Fielder or Matt Harvey did.
Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians
Kipnis went from a fringe MVP candidate in 2013 to a below-average hitter last season. This season he is back to being on of the best hitters in the American League with a .333/.410/.511 line and .921 OPS. This could be the season that really makes his star shine.
Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
The Yankees slugging first baseman seemed well on his way to natural regression last season as he hit .216 and had a 99 OPS+. This season he has regained form dating back to his 2009 season when he finished second in the AL MVP voting. He would have made the main list ahead of Wandy Rodriguez or Kendrys Morales, but Tex had yet to fall that far off the map, making his return to prominence less unlikely.
Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
Like his teammate Mike Moustakas, Hosmer had not lived up to the hype of being a top-three draft pick. And like Moustakas, his breakout started last October when he starred for the Royals in the postseason.
Unlike Moustakas, Hosmer was never so unproductive the Royals had to demote him. He had a 100 OPS+ in 2014 and hit just nine home runs. This season he has a 137 OPS+ and seven homers. The 25-year-old appears to be in the midst of a career year.
Wandy Rodriguez, Texas Rangers
2 of 11
Rodriguez was once seen as a front-line starter after putting up his best season as a 30-year-old with the Houston Astros in 2009. He immediately started to fall off after that despite relatively good health until 2013.
With the Pittsburgh Pirates, the left-hander made only 18 starts between 2013-14 mainly because of a left forearm strain and a bad right knee. He had a 4.53 ERA in those 18 outings—he had a 6.75 ERA in six starts last season—and the Pirates eventually released him in May of last year.
Rodriguez had knee surgery after that and was without a job until Opening Day when the Rangers took a flier on him and put him with Class AAA Round Rock for two starts before calling him up on April 24. Since then the 36-year-old has been a quality starter with a 3.25 ERA, a 121 ERA+ and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, his highest rate since 2011.
“Stabilizer,” Rangers manager Jeff Banister told reporters Saturday after Rodriguez allowed one run over seven innings on the road against the Kansas City Royals. “He has taken on a front end of the rotation type of attitude, shouldering a lot of innings and being a veteran presence. He is a guy who has been through a lot of battles and significant games.”
He is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA on the road—and a significant reason the Rangers entered Wednesday just two games out of first place in the American League West.
Kendrys Morales, Kansas City Royals
3 of 11
Morales was a top-tier hitter early in the 2010 season, but a broken lower leg suffered while celebrating a walk-off grand slam with the Los Angeles Angels derailed his career arc. In his 833 plate appearances with the Angels between 2009 and 2010, Morales hit .302/.353/.548 with a .901 OPS and 45 home runs.
He was not been the same hitter after the injury. From 2012 to 2014 (he missed the entire 2011 season), Morales hit .261/.315/.427 with a .742 OPS and 53 homers in 1,580 plate appearances.
That is why it surprised some when the Royals signed him to a two-year, $17 million contract last offseason. But apparently they believed Morales would have a bounce-back year.
Through Tuesday, he was hitting .292/.355/.476 with an .831 OPS, 130 OPS+ and seven homers in 234 plate appearances. He has been a major factor in the Royals offense significantly improving from last season, as it ranks second in the AL in average (.270), fifth in OBP (.320), slugging (.408) and OPS (.728).
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Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals
4 of 11
The third baseman was drafted second overall in 2007 and became a consensus top-10 prospect entering the 2011 season, the year he made his major league debut.
Since then, it has been almost nothing but disappointment offensively. In his first four seasons with Kansas City, Moustakas had 52 home runs and an 83 OPS+. He was worth a 5.6 WAR that ranked him 158th in the majors in those seasons, the same as John Jaso and Ryan Hanigan, according to FanGraphs. And much of that value came through his defense.
The Royals even demoted him to the minors last May because of his terrible production.
Moustakas has finally broken out this year in his age-26 season. He has a .318/.370/.455 slash line with an .825 OPS and five home runs. He had a 130 OPS+ through Tuesday’s games.
A change in hitting philosophy has been a major contributor to his success, particularly a focus on hitting the ball to the opposite field for the left-handed hitter. In his first four seasons, Moustakas had a total—a total!—of 35 hits to left field, making him one of the most shifted-against hitters in the AL.
This season he has 17 and was hitting .515 on balls hit to that side of the diamond entering Wednesday, and he has hit .337 on balls hit to the middle portion (30 hits in 91 plate appearances as opposed to 197 in 783 plate appearances during his first four years).
“Beating the shift was obviously a priority,” Moustakas told reporters last month.
The good vibes around him started last October when he hit five home runs during Kansas City’s postseason run.
That postseason springboard along with his 2015 success, not to mention Kansas City fans stuffing the online ballot boxes, has led to Moustakas leading all third basemen in All-Star Game votes.
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 11
Ethier has been a man without a home within his own team the last two seasons. He has played three outfield positions, hit all over the lineup and spent significant time on the bench because of ineffectiveness and nagging injuries.
This season, even with Matt Kemp traded to San Diego over the offseason, L.A. relegated Ethier to a platoon role. He made his feelings on the subject known in spring training after being quiet about his playing time all of last season when he had only 380 plate appearances and had a career-low 97 OPS+—it had never been lower than 121 in the previous six seasons.
Ethier told reporters during spring training:
"I want the opportunity to play every day. My mind hasn't changed from when I told you guys that a couple months ago. I felt like when I get a chance to play every day, I put up the numbers they ask of me. For some strange reason, it just happened that coming off a good 2012 season, in 2013 they took games away. You start to wonder why that happened. I feel like if I get a good full year in and get the at-bats, it starts to add up. It's tough when you get 300 at-bats and you're expected to hit 15 or 20 home runs.
"
He also said he would be open to a trade if the Dodgers did not plan on starting him. But with injuries to Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford thinning the ranks of Dodger outfielders over the first two months, Ethier has found himself playing regularly, and producing, again.
He’s posted a 144 OPS+ with eight home runs in 184 plate appearances this season entering Wednesday. Now, even with Puig returning to the lineup last weekend after missing 39 games, the plan is to play Ethier, a left-handed hitter, regularly again.
“We’ll be able to create that platoon in left with Andre getting the lion’s share of the at-bats,” manager Don Mattingly told Bleacher Report. “We’re getting 95 percent right-handers nowadays anyways. So that’s how we’re looking at it.”
A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates
6 of 11
Burnett was once seen as a budding ace, and the New York Yankees paid him as such in December 2008 when they signed him to a five-year, $82.5 million contract.
From 2009 through last season, he did not pitch like a man worthy of that kind of money. He had a 4.30 ERA, 4.06 FIP and 94 ERA+ and battled leg, back and groin injuries as well as a fractured orbital bone.
“I believe, my opinion, that he pitched through injury; that was real, it was legit,” manager Clint Hurdle told reporters Tuesday. “Only he can tell you if it complicated his delivery and we both know him well enough that what he will say is that, ‘I pitched [and was fine],’”
Burnett signed with the Pirates for one year over the offseason, bypassing more lucrative offers to return to Pittsburgh, where he pitched in 2012 and 2013 and posted his lowest ERA of those previous six seasons (3.30) in 2013.
This year, he has been a legitimate No. 1. He is 6-2 with a 2.11 ERA, 2.77 FIP and 183 ERA+, and his 1.8 FanGraphs WAR is sixth in the National League. If he continues pitching like a true ace, he will be the key to the Pirates returning to the postseason for the third consecutive October.
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
7 of 11
There was no doubt for just about everyone except the Phillies that Howard’s five-year, $125 million extension was a massive financial mistake. And since it has kicked in 2012, it has been.
Howard hit .233 with a .309 OBP and .720 OPS the last three seasons. His biggest value, power, also dipped to 48 home runs over 1,257 plate appearances. In his three seasons before that, he hit 109 homers and had an .877 OPS in 1,967 plate appearances.
His contract is now a burden on the Phillies, as it makes him almost untradeable unless they eat a huge portion of the approximately $50 million still owed to him at this point ($10 million buyout to avoid paying him $23 million in 2017).
However, Howard is making it easier for another team to fathom the possibility in this year. His power seems to be back—he has 11 home runs and 14 doubles in 213 plate appearances entering Wednesday—although his .278 OBP will have to rise.
Howard might not be the front-runner for the NL Comeback Player of the Year, but if he finds himself with a 30-homer season come October, he would at least give the Phillies, or another team, some positive value.
Matt Harvey, New York Mets
8 of 11
The last time we saw Matt Harvey on a mound before this season, he was showing us why he was one of the best pitchers in baseball for a second consecutive season.
Then his elbow gave out, and Tommy John surgery shelved him for all of 2014. His comeback was one of the most anticipated in MLB this spring.
Harvey has not disappointed. He has come back without missing a step and has helped push the Mets into a battle for the top spot in the National League East standings.
Before the San Francisco Giants shelled him on Wednesday—seven runs allowed in six innings—Harvey was 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 0.98 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Mets have flirted with a six-man rotation and have given Harvey extra days of rest to keep his innings count down since he is coming off a major injury. But even if he has a relatively shorter season than some other players, he is still one of the front-runners for the NL Comeback POY.
“[He] just changes the whole tenor of things,” Mets general manager Sandy Alderson told reporters in spring training. “That's the sizzle side. But he's going to have to go out and perform. Do we expect him to be as outstanding as he was for half a season a couple of years ago? That's a high expectation. But I think he has that expectation of himself.”
Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers
9 of 11
Going into last season, his first as a Ranger, Fielder had been one of the game’s most prolific power hitters for the previous eight seasons. From 2006 to 2013 he hit .286/.390/.528 with a .918 OPS, 142 OPS+ and 283 home runs, averaging 35 per season.
His 37.5 percent hard-hit rate also put him among the game’s elite in those seasons, according to FanGraphs.
Then last season he suffered a debilitating neck injury that crippled his powerful swing and just about everything else he did physically. After 178 subpar plate appearances, he opted for fusion surgery for a herniated disc and missed the next 120 games. It was the first time he played fewer than 157 games in his career—not counting his rookie year when he played in 39.
Fielder has come back with a vengeance this season, threatening to have the best season of his already wonderful career. He leads the American League with 81 hits and a .354 average. He has 10 home runs and a .953 OPS to go with his 166 OPS+.
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
10 of 11
Once upon a time, Braun’s star shined brighter than just about any player’s in the National League. He was beloved in Milwaukee. He was arguably the most valuable player on two Brewers playoff teams. He was the league MVP in 2011 and certainly one of the game’s top offensive threats.
Then came the positive test for synthetic testosterone. Then the denial. Then the exoneration on a technicality. Then the Biogenesis scandal. Then the suspension, the admission and the complete tearing down of a potentially iconic player.
Finally, the injuries.
A thumb/hand nerve injury cost Braun 24 games in 2013, and the Biogenesis suspension cost him another 65. An abdominal strain took another 14 from him in 2014, and the thumb lingered all season to the point that it made him barely above-average. His .266/.324/.453 line, .777 OPS and 112 OPS+ were all career lows.
Braun has been relatively healthy this season, and his numbers have crept back up. He is hitting .261/.332/.497 with an .829 OPS, 13 home runs and 124 OPS+ through Tuesday. He was forced to leave Wednesday’s game due to dizziness and is day to day.
Braun is in the final year of a team friendly eight-year, $45 million contract extension. Next season starts another extension, this one at five years and $105 million, which makes him difficult to trade unless his production gets even better, along with his health.
Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
11 of 11
At one time A-Rod was the face of baseball, its best player and its heartthrob with mass appeal.
Then, like Ryan Braun, the black cloud of performance-enhancing drugs created a downpour on his legacy, marketability and standing within the game. He became a pariah. Major League Baseball and the Yankees seemed to want nothing to do with him as they treated his milestones as meaningless numbers.
Only now Rodriguez is turning himself into one of the great redemption stories of the season—or at least a great comeback one.
After missing all of last season because of his Biogenesis suspension and returning at age 39—he will be 40 on July 27—Rodriguez is hitting .270/.373/.505 with an .878 OPS. His OPS+ is 145.
A-Rod was once the game’s brightest star and eventually had the steepest descent. But his 2015 season to this point is brightening this portion of his career and could lead to some more hardware on his shelf.
All stats via Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
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