NBA Finals 2015: Odds, Prop Bets, Score Prediction for Warriors vs. Cavs Game 4

Thanks to the historic production from LeBron James and the sudden rise of Matthew Dellavedova, the Cleveland Cavaliers grabbed hold of a 2-1 series lead in the 2015 NBA Finals on Tuesday night.   

History suggests the Cavaliers are destined to win the NBA title now after capturing the team’s first NBA Finals win on their home court in team history.

When a Finals is tied at 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the series 31 out of 37 times, according to the Elias Sports Bureau (h/t Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders): 

In other words, as ESPN Stats & Info notes, "the Game 3 winner of an NBA Finals series tied 1-1 has won the series 84 percent of the time."

The teams will remain in Cleveland for Game 4 on Thursday before the series shifts back to Oakland, California, for Game 5 on Sunday night.

Odds Remain in Golden State’s Favor

Despite trailing 2-1 in the 2015 NBA Finals, the Warriors remain the favorite entering a pivotal Game 4. Odds Shark pegs the Western Conference champions at minus-2.5 to take the fourth game and even the series at 2-2 before returning to Oracle Arena. It is apparent that Vegas is refusing to count out the MVP, Stephen Curry, and Golden State.

Though Vegas has not backed away from making the Warriors the favorite, the margin has finally decreased.

Once Cleveland revealed it would lose Kyrie Irving for the rest of the Finals because of a fractured kneecap, the Warriors’ odds inflated to 7.5-point favorites at home in Game 2. After James and Co. evened the series at a game apiece Sunday night, the Cavaliers’ stock grew, and oddsmakers listed the Warriors as one-point favorites for Game 3 in Cleveland. 

For the Warriors, Game 4 a must-win scenario because a third consecutive loss would put the Cavaliers in position to clinch the NBA Finals in Game 5.

Down But Not Out: Warriors Still in Charge?

In spite of what history suggests about Game 3 winners, Odds Shark considers Golden State a minus-210 favorite to win the 2015 NBA championship.

This comes as a bit of a surprise, considering not only history, but also that momentum is steadily in Cleveland’s corner.

They have won two Finals games in a row—on the road and at home—and Quicken Loans Arena has been kind to the Cavs. They are 7-1 at home in the postseason. Also, they've taken 27 of their last 29 games played at home dating back to the regular season.

Still there’s a twist.

In 2015, winners of Game 3 in playoff series knotted at 1-1 have eventually gone on to lose every series, according to ESPN Stats & Info. That defies NBA history but is unique to the wild 2015 edition of the playoffs.

This continues to demonstrate the importance of Thursday night’s Game 4 in Cleveland, where the Cavaliers have reeled off five consecutive postseason victories. 

Golden State, on the other hand, is trailing in a playoff series for the second time this postseason. The team last fell behind 2-1 in the Western Conference Semifinals against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Additionally, the Warriors lost two consecutive games. Not once this season has the team suffered a three-game losing streak, per ESPN Stats & Info.

A Series Destined for Game 6 or 7?

The most recent odds from Oddschecker have the NBA Finals lasting six games at 6-5 and seven games at 5-4. Per the website, the most popular bets are the series lasting either six or seven games at a 37.5 percent split.

Since the Cavs already hold a 2-1 series lead entering Game 4, it’s likely that betting on series length would start to garner attention if the Warriors take this next game.

According to NumberFire algorithms, there's a 22.24 percent chance that the Cavs will win in six games compared to a 12.05 percent chance they'll win in seven games. The site projects the Warriors' chances to win in six games at 20.6 percent and in seven games at 32.41 percent.

If Cleveland were to take Game 4 and move up 3-1, then it seems like the Eastern Conference champions would hold a strong edge to finish off the series win in either Game 5 in Oakland or Game 6 back home in Cleveland.

Conversely, if the Warriors bounce back to even it at 2-2, then the chances of the series going the distance become much more likely.

James the New Favorite for MVP Honors

Curry was pegged as the early favorite to be the NBA Finals MVP, but no longer is that the case.

James has overtaken Curry as the odds-on favorite to be the Finals MVP, according to Oddschecker, at 5-6 odds. Curry’s odds shifted to 6-5.

James is playing at a torrid pace, not to mention rewriting the history books with each passing game. According to Elias Sports Bureau, James’ 40 points in Game 3 marked the first time in NBA Finals history a player has scored 40 points and recorded at least half of his team’s assists.

In addition, the site reports that James’ three-game streak of 30 field-goal attempts is the longest in his career and that the 123 points during that span are now the most in three Finals games, breaking the previous mark set by Rick Barry.

Without question, James’ dominance is well-deserving of MVP honors. But what happens if the Warriors mount a comeback?

James’ historic tear may be quickly forgotten if Curry can lead the Warriors to a furious Finals comeback. For that to happen, Curry needs to quickly regain his MVP form and lead his team to victory in spectacular fashion.

Curry has averaged 24.0 points per game through the first three games of the Finals, but he’ll need to increase his scoring output—and at the right time—in order for the Warriors to march back into the series and for him to nab MVP honors.

Until that happens, it’s fitting James is the odds-on favorite to win MVP regardless of which team winds up winning the series.

Game 4 Prediction: It’s Do-or-Die for the Warriors

Momentum and history are very much in the Cavaliers’ corner, and it’s quite clear that Irving’s absence and Dellavedova’s expanded role have changed the entire team’s dynamic at this point in the Finals.

Dellavedova is proving to be a defensive menace as he guards Curry, who has been inconsistent throughout the series and unable to find a rhythm for four quarters. Cleveland held the NBA’s MVP to three points in the first half of Game 3 before he broke loose for 27 in the second, when his team was already in a double-digit hole.

Dellavedova has also been a force on the offensive end of the court. On Tuesday, he recorded a playoff career-best 20 points to go along with five rebounds and four assists. The backup point guard has been a welcomed surprise for Cleveland, which looked like it could be on the verge of being swept without Irving in the lineup.

Dellavedova has changed all of that and has been an integral part of the Cavs’ success in the Game 2 and Game 3 triumphs.

While the Cleveland role players have come around, there is certainly no denying James’ historical tear this NBA Finals as he's put himself in NBA playoff lore.

On Tuesday, everything worked for James. His jump shot was wet, he could drive to the rim and he delivered from the free-throw stripe when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter. 

Conversely, the Warriors have failed to find their rhythm as a team this NBA Finals, and their leader, Curry, has been off the mark.

Curry finished with 27 points, 24 of which came over the final two quarters and sparked the team’s second-half comeback. But it was too little, too late for the MVP and his squad.

Klay Thompson was limited to 14 points and a 2-of-7 mark from the three-point line, while the rest of Golden State’s starting five—Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut—combined for 11 points. In contrast, Cleveland’s starting five combined for 79 points in Game 3.

Steve Kerr needs to toy with his lineup to get his most productive players on the floor more. 

Green’s shoulder has been bothersome and clearly affected his game. Barnes, while stout defensively, was abysmal from the floor, going 0-of-8. Bogut too struggled, particularly vying for boards against Timofey Mozgov, and he finished the game with a mere five rebounds in the loss.

David Lee sparked the Warriors off the bench, scoring 11 points with four rebounds in 13 minutes. He along with Andre Iguodala are deserving of more playing time in Game 4 in place of Barnes and Green.

Golden State’s ferocious late rally should hopefully lift the team’s confidence a bit entering Game 4. More importantly, this is a game of superstars, so can Thompson and Curry regain their form as the Splash Brothers in this all-too-critical game?

I lean on the side of caution and say "yes." James may be on a historic tear, but a great team can find a way to overcome it. The Warriors have come from behind in playoff series before, and a win here could alter the dynamic of the series and shift momentum back in favor of Golden State as the series goes back to Oakland for Game 5.

Prediction: Golden State 98, Cleveland 93