Copa America 2015: Pivotal Factors to Decide Group C
Throughout the past two weeks, we have been looking ahead to the Copa America, which starts in Chile on Thursday, assessing all of the teams in turn. We're now following that up with a look at each group and what might affect how each one pans out.
This time around we look at Group C, containing perhaps the biggest rivalry match at this stage and two of the favourites to win the tournament outright.
More info on each of the Group C teams can be found below:
Brazil's Determination to Overcome Humiliation
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Just a year ago, Brazil were full of optimism and determination—as a nation and as a team—that they could go on to lift the FIFA World Cup on home soil.
Things started fairly well but quickly soured, after an injury to Neymar preceded a devastating and humiliating semi-final beating at the hands of eventual winners Germany. The third-place play-off wasn't much better.
Since then, Brazil have changed manager and key on-pitch personnel, a whole year of football has passed and the new-look side seems to be in confident mood once more. Will that continue once the tournament gets underway? Or will there be an undercurrent of trepidation that inhibits them once they cross the line?
How Brazil deal with the mental aspect of the game, just as much as the technical and tactical ones, will determine how they fare in the group.
Form and Fitness of Falcao
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Colombia won admirers last year for their performances at the World Cup, but key striker Radamel Falcao was not a part of that having missed out through injury.
Now back on the pitch with some regularity, he hasn't enjoyed the best of seasons on loan at Manchester United; fit but not sharp, playing but not scoring, he hasn't looked half the player he was at Atletico Madrid, and there are some doubts about his capacity to recover entirely.
That said, at his peak he was a physical and technical beast, powering past defenders in the air and on the ground. Colombia have picked him as captain and he will lead the line—but how well?
Venezuela's Abysmal Copa America Record
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Venezuela, you won't be surprised to learn, have never won the Copa America. They have never reached the final, in fact. And until the last event, in 2011, they hadn't reached the semi-finals either.
In 55 matches at the Copa America since it began and they started to take part, Venezuela have managed to accrue a total of...FOUR victories. And two of those came in 2011—one in the group to beat Ecuador and one in the quarter-finals to overcome Chile.
If they are to have any hope of impacting at this tournament, then they must start by actually going out to win games.
Gareca's Recent Appointment
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Ricardo Gareca was appointed as Peru boss only in February, so he has had minimal time to familiarise himself with the squad.
More than half the named players are home-based in Peru, and Gareca has only had a couple of friendlies so far to put in place a system and get to know the personnel he will trust; it is entirely possible, given the tough group they are in, that they could use this Copa as an extension of those friendlies to prepare for the World Cup qualifiers later in the year.
Peru reached the semis last time out, but even reaching the quarter-finals this time could be an achievement.
Injuries Affecting Brazil, or Attacking Talent to Shine?
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From the original squad Dunga named, Brazil have already lost goalkeeper Diego Alves, left-back Marcelo and central midfielder Luiz Gustavo to injury. Four of the players in the squad are uncapped at present, including both 'keeper back-ups to Jefferson, while another eight of the squad have less than 10 caps each.
That said, Dunga's realignment of the team has been partly to give talented young players room to make their breakthrough; the introduction to the team of Roberto Firmino and Philippe Coutinho add excitement, movement and the on-the-ball skill that is expected of the team, while there is still plenty of depth in the two-man midfield pivot positions.
And, of course, they have Neymar.
Colombia's Embarrassment of Riches in Attack
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Falcao aside, Colombia have incredible depth in the forward areas of the pitch. Likely to utilise two fairly narrow attacking midfielders behind two out-and-out forwards, Colombia will have technique, pace, rotation of position and plenty of goals.
James Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado will make up for the absence of Juan Quintero, while up front it should be Teo Gutierrez alongside Falcao—but they also have Jackson Martinez, Luis Muriel, Carlos Bacca and others all vying to be involved.
Abel Aguilar and Fredy Guarin will be misses in midfield, but if the defensive side of things holds out, the attack can trouble anyone in the tournament.
The Third-Place Gamble: Argentina or Chile?
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The top two in the group go through automatically, but third place could also sneak through—the best two of the three third-place teams will earn passage into the knockouts.
For Group C's third-place side, which most assume will be Peru or Venezuela, a game against either the winners of Group A or B awaits. Assuming the strongest-on-paper side from each goes through top, that means either hosts Chile or World Cup-finalists Argentina—neither an appetising prospect for one of the smaller sides in the competition.
You have to suspect that it would merely be progression for progression's sake, and a beating would ensue—but as the 2011 Copa showed, football doesn't always work the way you think it will.
Two of the Favourites Make for the Most Intriguing Group?
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While each of Group A and B have a mix of good sides who might hope to do well, Group C looks pretty much split down the middle: two of the four favourites to win the tournament, and two with little chance of making an impact.
Colombia and Brazil have their own little bit of recent history too; at the World Cup finals there was a sense of injustice for the former side as the hosts went through to the semi-finals with a 2-1 win, while a friendly just two months later in Miami saw Brazil win 1-0, a late Neymar goal separating the sides.
There is no doubt that Colombia are a team on the rise, certainly compared to the last two decades, so they will be eager to show they can not just compete with, but finally beat this Brazil team.
The winners of this game should win the group and, as a result, face the runners-up from Group B (Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Jamaica) rather than finishing second and face the runners-up from Group A (Chile, Mexico, Ecuador, Bolivia). Will it make much of an initial difference? Or will it be more of a factor later in the tournament?
World Cup Hangovers?
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It's a theme we have discussed in the other groups, but the ongoing status of each long season will eventually have an effect on some players.
Brazil are playing a third summer tournament in a row after the 2013 Confederations Cup and last year's World Cup, where they went all the way to the final round of games and Colombia went to the quarters.
Brazil also saw their talisman Neymar face an extended 2014-15 season as his Barcelona team went all the way to the Champions League final—and won. Great for mentality, hunger and quality, not so much for tiredness, perhaps.
Hopefully none of the players involved in the game without long periods of rest suffer unduly in the tournament.
The Best of the Rest
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As ever, teams and fans will look to the players of greatest stature and form to have a say on the outcome of each game and in the group overall.
Peru will look to their established stars, such as Juan Vargas, Jefferson Farfan and Paolo Guerrero, to shine, while Venezuela will hope Juan Arango has one or two big moments left in him and striker Salomon Rondon can star.
The top two though have a host of top-tier talent: Neymar, Coutinho, Thiago Silva to name a few, while the attackers of Colombia we have also named already—James, Falcao, Teo and Cuadrado being the standouts. If they shine, there will be few defences around that can cope, and Group C could well see plenty of goals.
