Ranking the Top 10 Men's Players After the 2015 French Open
Stan Wawrinka defeated Novak Djokovic for the biggest win of the 2015 French Open. Once again, the Serbian No. 1 is left without the title he craves most. Regardless, he is still the No. 1 player on tour, and he must now set his sights on future major wins.
What about the rest of the top 10? Which players have used French Open momentum to better position themselves for Wimbledon? We refer to the ATP Rankings on each slide, but we are power ranking our top 10 with a heavy emphasis on 2015 and how the players are looking for the second half of the tennis year.
There are successes and disappointments for the following stars, but the French Open showed that the ATP is featuring a deeper and more competitive balance in the top 10.
Outside the Top 10
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David Ferrer will be ranked No. 7 in the ATP Rankings, and he is as consistent as they come, usually good for fourth-round or quarterfinals appearances at the majors. Now the French Open is over, and once again he is not really a threat to win big titles. As he winds down his remarkably durable career, the star journeyman has continued to be a worthy top-10 gladiator, just not on this list.
Gael Monfils has more talent but a lot less consistency than Ferrer. He does not figure to be a grass-court contender, even though his reflexes and athleticism are enough to threaten the top stars.
Other overachievers like Gilles Simon and David Goffin are basically a poor man's David Ferrer.
Grigor Dimitrov is still ranked No. 11 but will likely lose many of those points at Wimbledon, unless he can get hot and make it back to the semifinals. Don't bet on it.
10. Milos Raonic
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ATP Ranking: 8
French Open Momentum: After suffering an injury and surgery to his left foot, Milos Raonic had to withdraw from Rome and the French Open.
Wimbledon Outlook: Raonic had been improving his baseline strokes and consistency in 2015. Behind his powerful serve, he looks to be a force at Wimbledon once again, perhaps to match or exceed his semifinal appearance there last year. The problem is his injury recovery and conditioning. Will he have time to regain his timing and momentum? Will the foot's nerve remain pain free? He has a lot to prove in the next month.
9. Marin Cilic
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ATP Ranking: 9
French Open Momentum: A sort of forgotten contender, U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic has been slow to overcome injuries, find his form and reestablish his talent. The French Open was a nice step forward as he landed in the fourth round, falling to a better clay-court player in David Ferrer.
Wimbledon Outlook: Now is the time for Cilic to make some waves. He could be the most underrated and dangerous grass-court player on tour, fully capable of torching the Wimbledon field in two weeks. He has the serve, forehand and instincts for grass. It would figure to be a more likely place for him to win a major than Flushing Meadows, New York, so watch to see if he can peak at the right time.
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8. Tomas Berdych
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ATP Ranking: 5
French Open Momentum: To the delight of Roland Garros patrons, French star Jo-Wilfried Tsonga toasted the new but old Tomas Berdych. No matter how good Berdych's tennis can be, there are always a handful of better players who will take him down in the final days of majors. To evaluate his fourth-round loss is the typical Grand Slam story of his career. Just so good but never great.
Wimbledon Outlook: It would be nice to see Berdych pull a Richard Krajicek (a nice, talented player who rose up and won Wimbledon in 1996 but never contended again). Nobody's going to hype him up, and when he loses nobody will notice. If Berdych did get it together for a magical Wimbledon title, it would cause people to gasp in astonishment for a few days, and then they would all go back to wondering about aging lions like Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal or questioning why Novak Djokovic had somehow failed.
7. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
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ATP Ranking: 12
French Open Momentum: We are rewarding the Frenchman for trending up once again. For the second time in three years, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga got to the French Open semifinals. At least this time he won a set, but the power advantage he can usually create was a losing battle against thundering Stan Wawrinka.
Wimbledon Outlook: Will this be the year Tsonga puts it all together at Wimbledon? He has the offensive game, semifinals appearances (2011-12) and last year's Rogers Cup to show that he can win important titles. He will have to shore up his defensive reactions and footwork, or he must ensure that he is not the one trying to chase down shots.
6. Rafael Nadal
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ATP Ranking: 10
French Open Momentum: OK, so by now tennis fans have come to terms with Nadal's quarterfinal loss to Novak Djokovic and his struggles of the past year. He's staring at faster courts and tournaments away from clay-court Europe. Like Roger Federer in 2013 or Andy Murray in 2014, Nadal has needed a lot of time to try to regain his form. He might need several more months, but he will be a major contender.
Wimbledon Outlook: Wimbledon has not been kind to Nadal in recent years. A two-time champion and three-time runner-up from 2006-11, Nadal has had physical difficulties with his knees and has seen more variety and youth with other competitors. He is not expected to contend at Wimbledon.
Quirky stat for all of you Rafaholics: Nadal has a better winning percentage at the U.S. Open than at the French Open if we measure this from 2012-15. While Nadal dropped his first match at Roland Garros since 2009, he has not lost at the U.S. Open since his 2011 final to Djokovic. Of course he was unable to compete in 2012 and 2014 due to injuries, so it’s a misleading frame.
5. Kei Nishikori
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ATP Ranking: 4
French Open Momentum: It's hard to call Kei Nishikori's French Open run to the quarterfinals either a success or a failure. He mostly did what was expected, kind of what Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer often do at majors. Will this be a typical result or will he get overpowered by the likes of Stan Wawrinka (Australian Open) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (French Open)? The big matches decide who can control his own destiny and who needs help. Nishikori is more the latter than the former.
Nishikori had every opportunity to beat the aforementioned players to land in the final, but right now his No. 4 ATP ranking might not reflect his actual chances to win a title, while someone like Rafael Nadal at No. 10 is more likely to put together another major run in the future.
Wimbledon Outlook: Wimbledon grass will be an uphill battle for Nishikori's slight frame and lack of power. Bigger servers and hitters will be a problem despite his excellent reflexes and ball-striking anticipation. Would he even be favored against a more inconsistent, youthful but dangerous player like No. 25 Nick Kyrgios? Perhaps not.
4. Roger Federer
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ATP Ranking: 2
French Open Momentum: Although Roger Federer was seeded No. 2, red clay proved to be too much when he ran into Stan Wawrinka in the quarterfinals. His harder-hitting compatriot never really gave Federer a chance to employ his opportunistic offensive variety. In a way, Federer proved to be a tease. Tennis observers greatly respect his legacy and consistency, but was he really a threat to win the French Open?
No disrespect to the 9,415 ranking points Federer has, but it's been tough going in 2015 and he has a ton of points to defend the rest of the year. There are a lot of younger competitors who can combine to wear him down in majors.
Wimbledon Outlook: The grass will definitely be greener for Federer's chances at Wimbledon. There, he is suited to play shorter points and be rewarded for his aggression. He needs to replicate his efforts from a year ago when he pushed Novak Djokovic to a fifth and deciding set.
Federer is a more consistent player than fellow Swiss Stan Wawrinka, but he no longer has as much power and strength on the slower surfaces. We are ranking him behind Wawrinka because his countryman has two majors in the last year and a half, but Federer will get the nod as the one more likely to win the Wimbledon title.
3. Stan Wawrinka
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ATP Ranking: 4
French Open Momentum: Just when we wondered if Stan Wawrinka's 2014 magic was truly over, the Swiss has proven that he has the big groundstrokes and toughness to win another major. He is best on the slower surfaces, where he has changed things up a bit recently, opting to stay back farther behind the baseline and blast away with safer margin and just as much lethal power.
Take a few moments and admire the big shots and toughness that Wawrinka showed against Djokovic. He not only held up with his powerful shots, but he rarely beat himself with shots. When he did let up, he delivered the goods. He was down 3-0 in the fourth set. Later he rallied back to hold after facing triple breakpoints. He held his nerve after one championship point missed by millimeters.
Wawrinka is a worthy major contender making a late-career bid for the Hall of Fame. He is now tied with Andy Murray on the majors list.
Wimbledon Outlook: It will be difficult for Wawrinka to win Wimbledon. He needs more time to wind up his strokes, and there will be bigger servers and shots pressuring his defense. He could get hot and adapt with his improving service returns, but he needs to be efficient. He has shown championship resilience, but Djokovic, Federer and Murray are the ones to chase.
He has beaten just about everyone in the top 10 this year, including impressive big matches against Kei Nishikori at Australia, Milos Raonic and Tomas Berdych at Rotterdam, Rafael Nadal at Rome and Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Roland Garros. He tops all of that with an awesome performance over Novak Djokovic.
2. Andy Murray
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ATP Ranking: 3
French Open Momentum: Recall that Andy Murray was really a non-factor in 2014, culminating his year with almost a shutout defeat to Roger Federer. In 2015, Murray has clearly been the better player of the two. He got back to the Australian Open final. He had his best clay-court season ever, taking titles at Munich and Madrid. He tore through the French Open, a surface that figured to challenge him most, and made rival Djokovic finish off the semifinal with a fifth set.
We are giving Murray the nod over Stan Wawrinka for the No. 2 ranking here. Murray is up 1,205 points but has more points to gain in the summer and fall and has a much better track record here. We will see if Wawrinka can carry his momentum into the next few months and finish with a better fall.
Wimbledon Outlook: There's a solid chance that Murray could be the one to dethrone Djokovic at Wimbledon. Unlike two years ago, he is not playing with the desperate pressure to break Great Britain's men's singles drought. He's in great shape and not playing with back pain, as far as we know.
The last thing left for Murray to win his third major is to once again defeat Djokovic. Losing eight straight makes it tough to call it a rivalry, but he has been more competitive since getting healthy and finding his form the past few months. He will still need at least a partial letdown from his bigger rival, but if so, then Murray could be the one to clean up at Wimbledon or the U.S. Open.
1. Novak Djokovic
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ATP Ranking: 1
French Open Momentum: Just when it seemed like Novak Djokovic was in control with the first set in the bag, everything dissolved—the French Open and any talks of a calendar Grand Slam. And yet, the way Stan Wawrinka played for those last three sets, there's little that Djokovic can look back on. Just disappointment. He had his chances but Wawrinka outhit him with a vintage performance.
He nearly pulled off the greatest first half in tennis history—four Masters 1000 titles and the Australian-French Opens double. All kinds of winning streaks have ended, including another career run that had him on the brink for another pantheon level. And yet it must be mentioned that Djokovic battled hard. He played the percentages, had aggressive, gusty attempts at times and did all he could to force Wawrinka to crack. There were plenty of breakpoints, but the Swiss was extraordinary when it mattered most.
And what a display of classy sportsmanship between both players. They are both winners.
Wimbledon Outlook: On to defending his Wimbledon title. Grass courts are never easy for Djokovic and his lengthy strides, but he is a two-time champion and once again the favorite. There will be more contenders who can beat him here, including some dangerous servers like Nick Kyrgios and Milos Raonic, players who can get hot for a day.
So forget about any Grand Slam sweep or talks of the U.S. Open. There will be plenty of work to do at Wimbledon and major No. 9 will not be easy.
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