French Open 2015 Men's Final: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka Preview and Prediction
Well, just like many expected when the draw came out, Novak Djokovic will face off against a Swiss Slam champion in the French Open final. Of course, most expected Djokovic's opponent to be Roger Federer, but instead it will be Stanislas Wawrinka.
Both men have looked superb on their way to the final. Wawrinka has shown the form that saw him win an Australian Open title last year, and he is not an opponent that Djokovic will be able to take lightly. Wawrinka means business.
But Djokovic will deservedly be the favorite—he has taken out Rafa Nadal and Andy Murray, after all, and this is the title that he's been dreaming of winning to complete his career Slam.
It should be a fantastic end to the French Open, though—these two have put on shows in majors in recent history.
Here's everything you need to know to get ready for the French Open men's singles final on Sunday.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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There is no denying that historically Novak Djokovic has the edge in this rivalry. He leads the head-to-head battle against Stan Wawrinka 17-3.
However, their matchup isn't as straightforward as the numbers would suggest. Wawrinka has only really turned into an elite player over the past two years, and in that time period, he has had many epic matches against the world No. 1.
Wawrinka first established himself as a big-stage contender during the 2013 Australian Open, when he pushed Djokovic to 12-10 in the fifth set in a fourth-round encounter for the ages. The two played each other again at the U.S. Open later that year, once again going to five sets in the semifinals in New York before Djokovic prevailed.
However, at the 2014 Australian Open, Wawrinka finally got revenge on Djokovic, winning 9-7 in the fifth in the quarterfinals on his way to winning his maiden (and only) Grand Slam title. Djokovic returned the favor earlier this year in the Australian Open semis, once again defeating Wawrinka in five sets, although he got a bagel this time.
So Djokovic gets the best of Wawrinka far more times than not, but the Swiss has been able to bring it against the Serb on the biggest stages of the sport.
How Djokovic Has Looked so Far at Roland Garros
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Throughout this fortnight at Roland Garros, Novak Djokovic has looked like a man on a mission. And indeed he is—the Serb is trying to win his first French Open title and ninth Slam overall to finally capture his career Slam.
While the five-time Australian Open champion's self-imposed pressure to win in Paris has previously produced some nervy tennis, throughout the past two weeks Djokovic has looked cool and confident.
He didn't drop a set on his way to the semifinals, and although Andy Murray mounted a surprise charge and won the third and fourth sets of their semifinal to stretch the match into a two-day affair, Djokovic ran away with the fifth set, 6-1. Really, his 33-match winning streak that now dates back to the beginning of March was never in doubt.
Djokovic's most impressive moment this tournament was a straight-sets destruction of nine-time French Open champion and frequent Parisian nemesis, Rafael Nadal. Djokovic won their heavily anticipated quarterfinal match 7-5, 6-3, 6-1.
From his serve to his movement, his backhand to his net play, Djokovic has looked like the best tennis player in the world at Roland Garros.
How Wawrinka Has Looked so Far at Roland Garros
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Stan Wawrinka's French Open tournament got off to a bizarre start, with the Roland Garros website inexplicably publishing an article before the first round about cheating rumors in his personal life and claiming he might struggle because his first-round opponent's name, Marsel Ilhan, was similar to Ilham, the first name of his ex-wife.
But Wawrinka has shown no signs of trouble on the court. His backhand has been as powerful as ever, and his focus has been supreme. He's been able to dictate matches and break the will of his opponents. He was particularly fantastic in his straight-sets victory over his countryman Roger Federer in the quarters and was steady enough to take out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and the French crowd in the semis in four sets.
In case we have forgotten, he has reminded us why after only making it to two Slam quarterfinals in the first eight years of his career, he has now made it to seven quarterfinals, four semifinals and two finals since the 2013 French Open. Now, he has a chance to win his second Slam in as many years.
On the surface, it seems like Wawrinka is a surprising finalist at Roland Garros, but really, there's been nothing shocking about his play this fortnight at the French Open. The biggest question is why we didn't see this coming, particularly since he was in the side of the draw away from Novak Djokovic, Rafa Nadal and Andy Murray.
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Biggest X-Factors in the Final
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There will be no surprises for the two men on the court Sunday. This will be their 21st meeting, and they have met seven times in the last two years, including four times in majors. Especially since all four of their recent meetings in majors went five sets, it's safe to say they know each other's games well.
But still, Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka have never met in a Grand Slam final, so it remains to be seen how both of them deal with the pressure. Nerves, in my opinion, will be the biggest X-factor.
Djokovic has been to quite a few Slam finals before—15, to be exact—and he has come away with the trophy eight times. Conventional wisdom will say that he will be calmer in this moment.
However, all of the pressure will be on his shoulders. This is the title he has been waiting to win. He will be the heavy favorite, something he's never experienced in a Roland Garros final before.
The Serb is going to have to stay cool and not let his emotions get the best of him. He'll have to drown out the unpredictable French crowd, who have given him fits before, and focus on the basics: holding serve and putting pressure on Wawrinka with his phenomenal returning.
Wawrinka, meanwhile, is going to have to embrace being the underdog. He's been to a Slam final before and has beaten Djokovic in a major before, so he'll need to channel that experience and act like he's been there before. Perhaps the biggest X-factor for him will be the ability to stay calm yet aggressive.
Djokovic Will Win If...
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Novak Djokovic will win this French Open and continue to bulk up his chapter in the history books if he merely does what he has been doing all year long: play like the best player in the world.
Sounds simple, right? Of course, that's easier said than done, so let's get more specific.
Steve Tignor of Tennis.com broke down how Djokovic defeated Nadal in the quarterfinals, and it's a great blueprint for what he needs to do to beat Stan Wawrinka too:
"Rather than letting the match become a physical contest, Djokovic took crisp control of the rallies from the opening game. He won eight of the first nine points and broke Nadal with a series of hooking crosscourt forehands that pushed him wide, and well-measured drop shots that caught him off guard. Through the first four games, Djokovic played exactly the same brand of clean, controlled, smoothly dominant tennis that he has been playing all year. Is there a word that means “beyond clinical”? That’s how Novak looked in the early going.
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Djokovic doesn't need to make this more complicated than it needs to be. If he's playing close to his best and stays composed, then he will finally get the French Open monkey off his back. He doesn't even need to do anything spectacular—well, nothing more than his baseline, which is already spectacular enough.
If he gets irritated or starts out slowly, then he could let Wawrinka in the match and lose his nerve, like he looked close to doing in the semis. Then demons re-emerge, and everything changes. If he can avoid doing both of those things, then he will fill in the missing line on his career resume, and the celebrating can begin.
Wawrinka Will Win If...
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Stan Wawrinka is fully capable of winning this match if he gets just a little bit of help from Novak Djokovic. If the Serb is off his game or gets distracted by his emotions, then Wawrinka has a chance.
After all, this is not a moment Wawrinka is taking for granted. He loves Roland Garros, and it's easy to imagine that with the close proximity of France to Switzerland and with his close friendship with Roger Federer, he will get some love from the crowd on Sunday.
“A Roland Garros final is a dream for me,” Wawrinka said, as reported by Christopher Clarey of the New York Times. “It’s a tournament I appreciate. I feel at home even though the French fans are of course supporting the French. It’s the tournament I watched when I was young, and I’ve always loved playing on clay.”
Wawrinka needs to dictate play with his backhand. He has to be solid on serve and keep the rallies from being long and grueling—he will not win a battle of attrition. His best shot at the upset and a second Slam title is to paint the lines and keep the ball off Djokovic's racket as much as possible.
Prediction
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This match isn't going to be an easy one for Novak Djokovic. Nerves will come into play, and Stan Wawrinka will come out ready to play like he has all tournament long.
Djokovic showed a few blips on his backhand in the third and fourth sets in his semifinal against Andy Murray, and while Murray had to play out of his mind to take advantage, it's worth paying attention to.
But ultimately, this is Djokovic's match to lose, and he won't do that. He has come too far and overcome far too much to let this opportunity pass him by.
While Wawrinka takes a tight second set, Djokovic runs away with the final in four.
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