Testing the Hype Meter of MLB's Top 10 Prospects
With literally thousands of players chasing after their dreams of playing in the major leagues, it takes a special kind of player to be ranked as one of the best prospects in baseball, whether it be on a top-100 list, a top-50 list or, in this case, a top-10 list.
While the 2015 draft has only recently concluded and saw a number of incredible talents be selected, there wasn't a world-class talent in the bunch as we've seen in past years, when players like Bryce Harper and Mike Trout began their professional careers.
The hype surrounding the likes of Alex Bregman, Brendan Rogers or Darby Swanson simply isn't great enough to put any of them into the conversation as one of baseball's 10 best prospects.
But there's plenty of hype surrounding those who did make the cut, and rightfully so. All of these players have incredibly bright futures and have a legitimate chance to become household names in the not-so-distant future.
But should we believe all the hype? Are they really as good as advertised? Is there a chance that there's a player on the list who hasn't been talked up enough? Is that even possible?
What follows is my take on where the hype meter stands in regard to each of those elite prospects, with three possible outcomes: A player is overhyped, underhyped or properly hyped.
Enough hype—let's get to it.
Prospect rankings taken from MLB.com's top 100 preseason prospects list. The following players are currently in the major leagues and were ineligible for inclusion:
No. 2: SS Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
No. 8: 3B Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
No. 9: RHP Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
No. 12: RHP Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
10. LHP Daniel Norris, Toronto Blue Jays
1 of 10
| 2015 (Triple-A) | 7 | 40.1 | 1-5 | 3.35 | 1.49 | 4.7 | 8.5 |
| 2015 (MLB) | 5 | 23.1 | 1-1 | 3.86 | 1.50 | 4.6 | 6.9 |
| Career (Minors) | 67 | 298.0 | 17-18 | 3.93 | 1.36 | 3.9 | 10.4 |
A second-round pick out of high school in 2011, Daniel Norris' electric four-pitch mix saw him move quickly through Toronto's farm system, making his major league debut against Boston last September and striking out the only batter he'd face, David Ortiz.
He'd garner more attention this spring for his offseason lifestyle, which involves shaving with an axe and living in a van that's sometimes parked down by the river (or ocean), than for his efforts on the mound, which earned him a spot in Toronto's Opening Day rotation.
Despite Toronto's need for quality pitching, Norris would last only a month before being shipped off to Triple-A to work on his command.
Hype Meter: Overhyped
While he's not allowing a ton of runs, Norris' lack of command over his arsenal remains a major issue. Still young, there's plenty of time for him to get things under control and realize his potential as a dominant, front-of-the-rotation arm.
But until that happens, it's impossible to buy into the hype.
9. RHP Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
2 of 10
| 2015 (Triple-A) | 10 | 60.0 | 3-5 | 5.10 | 1.55 | 2.7 | 6.2 |
| Career (Minors) | 43 | 221.2 | 12-10 | 3.90 | 1.24 | 2.7 | 8.3 |
An impressive physical specimen at 6'4", 235 pounds, Jon Gray looks the part of an innings-eating workhorse. It's one of the reasons that Colorado made him the third overall selection in the 2013 draft, and why he began his first full professional season at Double-A.
The other, of course, is his arm and three-pitch arsenal, which includes a 70-grade fastball that routinely cracked triple digits while he toed the rubber at the University of Oklahoma.
After spending his first full professional season at Double-A, Gray struggled in spring training and wound up at Triple-A, where his woes continued. That was before he sat down with his coaches, including former big league slugger Glenallen Hill, and learned how to get out of his own way on the mound.
"I'm trying to make sure of the pitch I was throwing before I threw it, that, 'I'm going to execute that pitch, and this pitch is going to get the hitter out,'" Gray recently told MLB.com's Thomas Harding. "I visualize it before I throw it. That way, there are no negative thoughts that can get in the way."
Hype Meter: Properly hyped
Perhaps the most impressive thing about Gray is that he's shown the maturity to know when changes need to be made and the ability to actually make those adjustments. Take a look at his numbers before he began to visualize his pitches and his numbers since then:
| Before | 4 | 17.2 | 32 | 21 | 8 | 17 |
| After | 7 | 42.1 | 43 | 13 | 10 | 24 |
That's a pretty drastic change, and Gray once again looks like a guy who will be anchoring the front of Colorado's rotation before too long.
8. RHP Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates
3 of 10
| 2015 (Double-A) | 6 | 29.1 | 2-2 | 2.76 | 1.02 | 3.1 | 8.9 |
| Career (Minors) | 64 | 303.1 | 23-13 | 2.02 | 1.04 | 4.3 | 11.7 |
A fifth-round pick out of high school in 2011, Tyler Glasnow continues to add bulk to his 6'8" frame, seeing an uptick in his velocity and more consistency in throwing strikes and repeating his delivery.
He'd go a combined 21-8 with a 1.95 ERA over his first two full professional seasons, striking out 321 batters over 235.2 innings of work between Single-A West Virginia and High-A Bradenton, earning a promotion to Double-A Altoona to start the 2015 season.
Before suffering a sprained ankle while sliding on May 6, Glasnow had been dominant once again, allowing two earned runs over his first 22.2 innings of work with six walks and 25 strikeouts. He's been on the disabled list since May 18 with the ankle injury.
Verdict: Underhyped
Glasnow is hardly ever mentioned along with Lucas Giolito, Jon Gray and Julio Urias as one of the top pitching prospects in the game, but the 21-year-old might turn out to be as good, if not better, than the rest of his counterparts.
Outside of his 75-grade fastball, one of Glasnow's secondary offerings has drawn comparisons to one of baseball's best young arms, as FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel wrote at the beginning of the season:
"It’s worth noting that Glasnow, especially for a guy that has such a long frame, has an uncanny ability to command his curveball, something I’ve only seen from Jose Fernandez among prospects at this level, and Fernandez’s curveball went from a 65 to an 80 pitch in the next couple years.
"
While nobody's ready to call Glasnow the next Fernandez, it's never a bad thing when you're compared to an elite arm such as him.
.png?w=256)
7. 3B Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
4 of 10
| 2015 (Triple-A) | 51 | .254/.353/.486 | 47 | 22 (10) | 35 | 40 | 4-for-5 |
| Career (Minors) | 430 | .276/.370/.558 | 431 | 221 (100) | 326 | 293 | 32-for-46 |
Had he not missed all of the 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery, Miguel Sano would already be a fixture in the middle of Minnesota's lineup. Now fully recovered, the 22-year-old is reminding people why he was one of the most highly touted prospects in the game.
Sano reached Double-A at the age of 20, and while he struggled to hit for average (.236), he had no issue flashing the plus power that has Minnesota fans dreaming of his arrival, picking up 37 extra-base hits, including 19 home runs, in only 233 at-bats. He'd finish 2013 with 35 home runs, the fourth-highest total in the minor leagues.
Verdict: Underhyped
Like most sluggers, Sano has plenty of swing-and-miss in his game, something that doesn't ever figure to change. But he showed the ability to hit for a respectable average before the injury, and the power is still there post-surgery.
He may not be quite as prodigious a slugger as Kris Bryant or Joey Gallo, but Sano isn't that far behind them in terms of raw power. He's going to be a legitimate game-changer for the Twins once he arrives in Minnesota.
6. 2B Yoan Moncada, Boston Red Sox
5 of 10
| 2015 (Low-A)/Career | 17 | .210/.290/.306 | 13 | 3 (1) | 5 | 8 | 1-for-1 |
Few international prospects have received the kind of hype that Yoan Moncada—who signed to a minor league deal worth a reported $31.5 million with the Boston Red Sox in late February—has, and for good reason, as MLB.com points out in its profile of the Cuban import:
"Moncada offers more offensive potential than most middle infielders. He's a switch-hitter with electric bat speed who makes consistent hard contact from both sides of the plate. He could deliver a .280 average and 20-25 homers on an annual basis, and he also has the well above-average speed to be a significant basestealing threat.
"
He's drawn comparisons to Robinson Cano and Chase Utley, as many scouts believe that while he played shortstop in Cuba, he's ultimately destined for second base.
Verdict: Overhyped
Nobody disputes Moncada's natural ability, but talk of him joining the Red Sox in 2015 or 2016—or being the next Cano—is silly and puts unfair pressure on a 20-year-old kid.
We should remember that Moncada is still very much a kid, one who is trying to adjust to life in the United States and a significantly higher level of competition than he's ever faced before. Eventually, he might develop into baseball's next great middle infielder—but he's got a long way to go before reaching that point.
5. LHP Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
6 of 10
| 2015 (Double-A) | 7 | 36.0 | 1-2 | 3.00 | 0.94 | 2.2 | 11.5 |
| Career (Minors) | 45 | 178.0 | 5-4 | 2.53 | 1.07 | 3.1 | 11.2 |
Julio Urias continues to make things difficult for Los Angeles. While the Dodgers are trying to limit his workload and the hype (and expectations) surrounding the 18-year-old phenom, all Urias does is produce, regardless of the talent level or age of the competition.
As Baseball America noted in its profile of him heading into the season, the Dodgers' efforts are fruitless, for Urias is a special talent:
"Urias was younger than many 2014 high school draft picks, so the Dodgers limited him to mostly three to five innings per start. His fastball sits at 89-94 mph and can reach 97. Scouts are split on whether they prefer his curveball or changeup, but that's only because both are plus pitches. His low-80s changeup can devastate hitters with its sink and fade, while his hard, sharp curveball misses plenty of bats when he stays on top of the ball. Both pitches earn future double-plus grades from some scouts, and Urias isn't afraid to throw either pitch in any count. He fills up the strike zone using pitchability beyond his years, with an easy arm action and clean mechanics.
"
Did I mention that he's only 18? That's the really scary part—Urias is only going to get better as he gets older and more mature, both mentally and physically.
Verdict: Properly hyped
Not only is Urias the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, there's a case to be made that he's the best pitching prospect around. It's not out of the question that he could break camp with the Dodgers next season as a 19-year-old.
4. 3B/SS Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 10
| 2015 (Triple-A) | 36 | .292/.352/.451 | 42 | 14 (4) | 19 | 23 | 0-for-0 |
| Career (Minors) | 321 | .315/.378/.539 | 392 | 161 (53) | 236 | 218 | 25-for-34 |
The 18th overall pick in the 2012 draft, Corey Seager has moved quickly through Los Angeles' farm system and looks like a lock to be part of the team's starting infield when the Dodgers break camp in 2016.
Scouts believe that he's a more advanced hitter (and has more pop in his bat) at this point of his career than his older brother Kyle, Seattle's All-Star third baseman, only raising the expectations and hype surrounding his eventual arrival in the big leagues.
While he has primarily played shortstop, he doesn't have great lateral quickness. That's why most believe that, like his brother, he's destined for the hot corner, where he profiles as an above-average defender.
Verdict: Properly hyped
Seager has produced at every stop along his journey to the major leagues, and it's not a stretch to think that he could be the Dodgers Opening Day third baseman in 2016.
3. RHP Lucas Giolito, Washington Nationals
8 of 10
| 2015 (High-A) | 6 | 33.1 | 1-4 | 4.59 | 1.35 | 1.9 | 12.4 |
| Career (Minors) | 38 | 170.0 | 13-7 | 2.65 | 1.10 | 2.6 | 10.4 |
A sprained UCL suffered during his senior year of high school—an injury everyone knew would require Tommy John surgery to repair—resulted in Lucas Giolito sliding out of the top of the 2012 draft, where Washington gladly scooped him up with the 16th overall pick.
His losing record and less-than-stellar ERA leave much to be desired, but now two years removed from surgery, Giolito is exhibiting terrific command while still missing bats at an obscene rate, with 46 strikeouts over 33.1 innings of work thus far.
While his mid-90s fastball is undoubtedly his best offering, grading out as an 80 pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale, it's his curveball that really has talent evaluators, like Bleacher Report's Mike Rosenbaum, impressed:
"Giolito’s curveball is possibly the best I’ve personally scouted in the last four years—a future 75 offering. Working from the same over-the-top arm angle as his fastball, he throws the pitch in the 76 to 83 mph range with legitimate 12-to-6 break and sharp, downer bite.
He shows the ability to add and subtract with the pitch depending on the batter and count, consistently throwing it 78 to 81 mph for a called strike and then throwing a harder-biting version at 82 to 83 mph when vying for a whiff.
"
Hype Meter: Properly hyped
A second-half promotion to Double-A figures to be in store for the 20-year-old, who could very well find himself as part of Washington's Opening Day rotation in 2016.
2. SS Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
9 of 10
| 2015 (Triple-A) | 56 | .279/.348/.401 | 62 | 18 (2) | 22 | 25 | 8-for-15 |
| Career (Minors) | 413 | .278/.354/.384 | 456 | 113 (21) | 162 | 252 | 89-for-131 |
While other middle infielders taken after him in the 2011 draft like Chicago's Javier Baez, San Francisco's Joe Panik and St. Louis' Kolten Wong have already made their major league debuts, Francisco Lindor continues to bide his time until Cleveland decides to call upon the player they selected eighth overall.
Lindor nearly got the call in early June, but he was ultimately passed over in favor of Zach Walters. “He was considered, but we felt it was best for the team and for the individuals that we made moves we did,” general manager Chris Antonetti told the News-Herald's Jim Ingraham. “We’re very confident Francisco will be making an impact on our major league club in the near future.”
Hype Meter: Overhyped
Lindor doesn't have the power that would make him a superstar, which makes him a bit overhyped as one of the two best prospects in baseball. That said, he's an elite defender who should hit for average and get on base consistently, and he has enough speed to cause problems when he does.
There's nothing wrong with that profile, and the Indians will be thrilled to stick him at shortstop for the next decade and let him do his thing. He's a lock to hold down the position beginning in 2016, but there's a very good chance that we'll see him in Cleveland at some point after the All-Star break.
1. OF Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
10 of 10
| 2015 (Double-A) | 57 | .274/.337/.478 | 63 | 24 (6) | 37 | 44 | 20-for-22 |
| Career (Minors) | 261 | .294/.377/.484 | 296 | 102 (27) | 150 | 205 | 92-for-118 |
Despite being the consensus top overall prospect available in the 2012 draft, Houston passed on Byron Buxton with the first pick, taking Carlos Correa instead, allowing Minnesota to scoop up the dynamic outfielder with the second overall pick.
A five-tool player who has shown flashes of being worth his $6 million signing bonus, Buxton's development has been slowed by a series of injuries that limited him to only 31 games in 2014.
Fully healthy, Buxton was recently named to the Southern League's All-Star team and has been opening eyes with his blistering speed, legging out nearly as many triples (11) as doubles and home runs combined (13).
Hype Meter: Underhyped
Were he still drawing comparisons to Mike Trout, I'd have to slap Buxton with the overhyped label. But the injuries may have been a blessing in that regard, as some people seem to have forgotten how dynamic a force the 21-year-old can be at the plate.
While his power is still developing, Buxton has the ability to become one of the most explosive players in baseball upon his arrival. Eventually, as he continues to develop and inch closer to reaching his full potential, the Trout comparisons might not seem so outrageous.
Unless otherwise linked or noted, all statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through games of June 11.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
.png?w=480)
