The Biggest Flaw for Every Starting QB in the NFL
We’re in the midst of the NFL offseason, so it’s a good time to look at the league’s marquee position, quarterback. Every quarterback has strengths that they rely upon each week to keep their team competitive. On the flip side, all quarterbacks have flaws they must overcome, and defenses work to exploit those weaknesses.
The few elite quarterbacks across the league compensate for their flaws better than anyone. Often, their weaknesses are much less severe as their competition, which makes their success more impressive and apparent.
Using a mixture of advanced statistics and film study from the 2014 season, we’ve identified the biggest flaw for every starting quarterback in the NFL. Some of these flaws are to a lesser extent than others, but the human aspect of the game certainly comes into play. Even the best quarterbacks have their struggles.
Make sure you let me know who your favorite quarterback is, and his biggest flaw, in the comments section.
Arizona Cardinals—Carson Palmer: Health
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As soon as Carson Palmer tore his ACL last season, the dynamic of the Arizona Cardinals season changed drastically. Arizona went from Super Bowl contender (possibly a favorite) to a team that backed in to the playoffs. This shouldn’t be surprising, given that there aren’t more than 20 good quarterbacks in the league, let alone having good backups.
Palmer’s film and advanced metrics were solid in 2014. He took care of the ball effectively, and showed great pocket prowess. If he’s healthy, the Cardinals can soar.
According to Pro Football Focus, Palmer had the 12th-best accuracy percentage in the NFL last year. His transformation into an efficient, yet playmaking, quarterback is huge for the franchise. Let’s hope he can stay on the field.
Atlanta Falcons—Matt Ryan: Improvisation
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Within the structure of the offense, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan ranks as one of the best in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks in the top six of each of the following categories: accuracy percentage, passing under pressure and deep passing.
There’s not much debate to the statement that when Ryan is in rhythm he is a great quarterback. His biggest flaw shows when he is unable to go to his first two targets, he breaks down and loses that efficiency.
That’s where Ryan’s film has the most glaring weakness. His inability to get outside of the pocket and buy time for his receivers isn’t poor, but not up to the standard he has set for when he is in the pocket.
Baltimore Ravens—Joe Flacco: Staying Composed
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It feels as if the “is Joe Flacco elite?” debate has been going on nonstop for three seasons, but he has yet to reach that status. He’s not particularly close to the top quarterbacks in the league, either. Both on film and by the numbers, Flacco’s inability to deal with pressure is a major concern.
Of quarterbacks who took at least 25 percent of snaps in 2014, Pro Football Focus had Flacco as the 29th-rated quarterback when facing pressure. His completion percentage of 40.4 percent left him as the 33rd-rated quarterback. That’s just not good enough.
What made the Ravens’ 2012 Super Bowl run special was Flacco’s sudden ascension into elite territory. He was more efficient than he was prior to, and since that small sample size. Whether he can replicate that type of success over a full season is the key question now.
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Buffalo Bills—Matt Cassel: Vision
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Seven years after Matt Cassel had his breakout season with the New England Patriots, the Buffalo Bills entered OTAs with Cassel as the starting quarterback. It’s kind of amazing that Cassel is still in the discussion to be a starter; he’s had just two successful seasons in a decade.
But, the Bills were in a tough spot to find anyone better this past offseason. For Cassel to succeed with his fourth team, he must improve his passing vision.
Cassel struggles reading coverages and anticipating his receivers getting open. His 70 career interceptions in 71 starts are a sure sign that he is unlikely to greatly improve his mental processing ability. Another concern is his career completion percentage sits at just 59 percent.
Carolina Panthers—Cam Newton: Footwork
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Watching Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton transform as his career has progressed has been fascinating. He’s no longer the raw athlete playing quarterback. He’s become a great quarterback with elite athleticism.
Newton doesn’t always get the respect he deserves because his raw stats aren’t elite, but that’s not really how any quarterback should be measured. Newton’s surrounding cast has been embarrassingly poor throughout his career, which has hurt those numbers greatly. Most importantly, Newton’s mechanics and mental processing are leaps and bounds better in four seasons.
The area that can use more work is his footwork. A big reason why Pro Football Focus had Newton’s passing accuracy at 37th in 2014 was his lower body. He’ll rush throws, compromising the positioning of his feet to get the ball into a tight window.
Chicago Bears—Jay Cutler: Decision-Making
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The enigmatic Jay Cutler experiment has been filled with inconsistent play. At times, Cutler looks like a franchise quarterback to build around. But far too often, his immense arm talent is improperly used because of Cutler’s decision-making.
With a career interception rate of 3.4, Cutler is a high-risk passer. Whether he doesn’t read defenses well or just doesn’t care to force throws, his decision-making hurts his team. His efficiency just hasn’t been up to par.
Cutler has the tools to be great. He was the 14th-most accurate passer in 2014, and the fifth-best against pressure, per Pro Football Focus. His bouts of poor play completely derails the solid stretches.
Cincinnati Bengals—Andy Dalton: Improvisation
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Despite his team’s considerable success in the past five seasons, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has mostly been riding that train, not driving it. To this point in his career, he has been the definition of mediocre, leaving the Bengals in quarterback purgatory.
Dalton does control the game well. He’s able to get the ball into his playmakers’ hands decently and limit turnovers. Issue is, when the Bengals need Dalton to transcend the scheme and situation, he has always struggled.
Among all quarterbacks in 2014, Dalton’s fourth-quarter play resulted in just an 85.7 passer rating. That was 18th in the NFL. For this team to take the next step, Dalton must develop his playmaker ability.
Cleveland Browns—Josh McCown: Playing Under Pressure
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As much as the Cleveland Browns need to figure out what they have in Johnny Manziel, they shouldn’t play him if he’s not better than Josh McCown. McCown has been a journeyman his entire career, with one solid season to point toward on his resume.
In 2013, McCown had an absurd five-game stretch for the Chicago Bears. He had 13 touchdowns and one interception. Most impressive was his 66.5 completion percentage, which was an eight-point increase over his career average. That’s the success both the Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in 2014) have hoped that McCown would replicate.
What has held McCown back from achieving more often his is play while pressured. According to Pro Football Focus, McCown was the 31st-rated quarterback last year when pressured, managing an accurate pass just 55.9 percent of the time. For him to succeed, he must be closer to his 2013 performance, when he delivered an accurate throw 77 percent of the time when pressured.
Dallas Cowboys—Tony Romo: Health
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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has aged on the football field like a fine wine. It doesn’t matter whether grading Romo on film or based on advanced statistics, Romo is a terrific quarterback who has gotten better with age.
Romo’s touchdown passes have risen, and his interceptions lowered. He’s accurate, ranking 10th overall and fifth on deep balls, per Pro Football Focus. The old criticisms about Romo’s clutch play have been debunked many times.
The bugaboo about Romo at this point is his health. After suffering broken ribs and a back injury in 2014, Romo’s biggest flaw is his ability to age without more injuries. Otherwise, there’s not much to nitpick about Romo’s play.
Denver Broncos—Peyton Manning: Arm Strength
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The end of the 2014 season was difficult to watch, as Peyton Manning looked like a shell of himself while dealing with a quad injury. His already-weak arm was neutered even more, rendering one of the best quarterbacks of all time to be pedestrian. For the Broncos sake, hopefully Manning returns in 2015 healthy, and stays close to full health.
To compensate for Manning’s weak arm, he’s had the fastest trigger in the league each of the past two seasons, per Pro Football Focus. The negative with this is clear; plays cannot fully develop and receivers have a huge amount of stress to get open right away.
Manning wins with his mind unlike anyone else in the NFL. Even with that major advantage, his body must be compliant with what he wants to do. This is a must-watch situation in 2015.
Detroit Lions—Matt Stafford: Touch Passing
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As Matt Stafford’s career has progressed, there are some encouraging signs of small improvements. His interception rate has dropped dramatically since his rookie season, down to a career-low 2 percent in 2014. His completion percentage slightly rose as well, getting over the 60 percent benchmark for the second time in six seasons.
There are still many concerns in his game, however. Stafford ranked 27th in the league with just 71.9 of his passes being accurate, per Pro Football Focus. Accuracy has always been an issue for Stafford, and he is not improving to where he needs to be.
Touch passing is a major flaw for Stafford. He has a rocket launcher on his right shoulder. But when he needs to stick a throw, he often sails it high.
Green Bay Packers—Aaron Rodgers: Comebacks
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Coming up with a major flaw for Aaron Rodgers at this point was extremely difficult. He’s arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, if we’re just looking at the numbers. His efficiency and playmaking ability is truly one of a kind.
This may not be a fair criticism since winning is a team accomplishment, but Rodgers has only eight career fourth-quarter comebacks. His performances in 2014 fourth quarters were stellar, as he boasted the fifth-highest quarterback rating in the fourth. But the weak spot on Rodgers’ resume is the comeback statistic.
According to Benjamin Morris of FiveThirtyEight.com, Rodgers has zero career comeback victories when trailing by nine or more in the fourth quarter. Again, it’s not a flaw that is all on Rodgers, but the most notable missing space on his resume.
Houston Texans—Brian Hoyer: Accuracy
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Another team that was stuck while trying to upgrade the quarterback position was the Houston Texans. Despite a strong 9-7 season in 2014, Houston saw below-average play from its signal-callers. To help replace Ryan Fitzpatrick, the team signed former Cleveland Browns starting quarterback Brian Hoyer.
Hoyer was a bit of smoke and mirrors in Cleveland. The Browns won despite Hoyer’s awful accuracy, which ranked 39th in the NFL last year, per Pro Football Focus. His accuracy percentage of 64.5 was dead last among all quarterbacks who took at least 25 percent of snaps last year.
It’s hard to be excited about Hoyer fixing this issue. His lower body is rarely aligned on throws, and his arm talent is naturally poor. He’s tough as nails and competes hard, but there’s not a ton to work with.
Indianapolis Colts—Andrew Luck: Turnovers
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One of the league’s brightest stars, Andrew Luck has delivered upon the immense promise that his talent showed at Stanford. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback has had an average supporting cast to this point in his career, but has helped create one of the more potent scoring offenses in the league.
Luck throws a high volume of passes and like to take his chances. He’s been fortunate with dropped interceptions throughout his career. Football Outsiders had Luck down for 23 should-be interceptions, which was worst in their stats. This matches the film, where Luck gets away with some bad passes.
This isn’t a huge concern yet. Luck cannot continue to throw so many bad passes in the playoffs, as it will continually cost his team until he fixes this flaw. But he’s entering his fourth season, and there’s no reason to think he’s peaked yet.
Jacksonville Jaguars—Blake Bortles: Pocket Awareness
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When I went back to rewatch Blake Bortles after the season, I was impressed by the number of big-time throws he connected on. The Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback has the moxie required to become one of the better quarterbacks in the league, even if the rest of his game needs work.
First on the checklist for Bortles is to become more consistent is his pocket awareness. This isn’t shocking, as young quarterbacks often lack the pocket presence when they enter the league. Bortles ranked 35th in the NFL last year with his accuracy when pressured, per Pro Football Focus.
The ability to evade the rush and deliver an accurate strike is possibly the most valuable in the NFL. But it requires the feel for the pocket, which is where Bortles must grow the most.
Kansas City Chiefs—Alex Smith: Creativity
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If you were to check the football dictionary for quarterback purgatory, Alex Smith’s face would be right there. Smith’s evolution into a super-conservative passer has been a major issue for the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl hopes. Fifteen years ago, Smith may have been regarded higher, but the league has shifted, emphasizing playmaking at the quarterback position.
A major reason for Smith’s low interception numbers (23 in the past four seasons) is his unwillingness to make somewhat difficult throws. He completely averts risk whenever possible. This hinders the offense because the Chiefs lack dynamic plays.
Quarterbacks with too much variance are an issue, but there is a happy medium to strive for. Winning with Alex Smith will be impossible until he shows the creativity required to produce big plays as a passer.
Miami Dolphins—Ryan Tannehill: Consistency
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Across the board in 2014, Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill took a major step in the right direction. Tannehill’s third professional season featured a major uptick in accuracy, natural instincts and production. He was certainly deserving of his $96 million extension.
The next step for Tannehill is to become more consistent. He often played a strong half of football, but struggled to continue that momentum for a complete game. Usually this was Tannehill starting slow, and then finishing well, but not exclusively.
If Tannehill can shore up his footwork on deeper throws and stick a few more tough passes, he will ascend into the top 10 of quarterbacks. He’s extremely talented and smart with the football and now has to convert that talent into a consistent playmaker.
Minnesota Vikings—Teddy Bridgewater: Taking Sacks
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Teddy Bridgewater’s rookie success was one of the best storylines of the 2014 season. Bridgewater’s ability to handle pressure was the best in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, delivering an accurate pass on 75 percent of throws. His accuracy and polish in the pocket wasn’t shocking, considering his excellent play at Louisville, but his ability to adjust so quickly was highly impressive.
Looking at the Minnesota Vikings offensive pieces around Bridgewater, they must hope left tackle Matt Kalil improves. Injuries across the line last season caused Bridgewater to be sacked 39 times, but he must do better to get rid of the ball when he sees the pressure.
His time-before-sacked was pretty average, finishing 21st with 3.31 seconds, per Pro Football Focus. This shows that Bridgewater’s penchant for taking sacks isn’t awful, but something that can be improved on as he develops.
New England Patriots—Tom Brady: Deep Ball
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Coming off yet another Super Bowl victory, Tom Brady has cemented his legacy as one of the best quarterbacks of all time. He’s changed the way he’s dominated the NFL throughout the years, maximizing his strengths to help the team succeed. New England’s offense features mostly short and intermediate passes, which is where Brady excels.
The weakness of Brady’s game is the deep ball. In 2014, Brady attempted just 60 deep passes, and was 29th in the NFL in accuracy on such throws, per Pro Football Focus. The deep ball is already a lower-percentage throw by nature, but the median accuracy rate was 40.6, so Brady is quite below average.
As stated before, Brady has adjusted his game to avoid deep throws too often. He’s correctly identified his flaw and has accentuated his strengths to the tune of a Hall of Fame-caliber career.
New Orleans Saints—Drew Brees: Arm Strength
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Another one of the elite quarterbacks of the past 10 to 15 years, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees has had to adjust his game to succeed. Down the stretch of the 2014 season, Brees’ arm looked gassed at times, forcing the Saints to assault the short to intermediate part of the field more often.
According to Pro Football Focus, Brees attempted just 27 deep passes outside of the hash marks, down from 54 in 2013. Brees is still one of the most accurate throwers in the league, which is a testament to his anticipation and mechanics.
Like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, Brees must embrace the loss of arm strength to thrive. With a rebuilt offensive line and one of the best head coaches in the NFL, Brees is in a great position to make that adjustment as he ages.
New York Giants—Eli Manning: Turnovers
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Looking back at Eli Manning’s 11-year career, he’s been a roller-coaster experience to follow. At his best, he’s brilliant with his passing prowess and throwing talent. When he’s having a rough game or season, it avalanches into mediocrity.
2014 was statistically Eli’s best season yet, posting a career-high completion percentage, yards thrown for, and more than twice the amount of touchdowns to interceptions. Multiple factors went into this, like a new, more modern offensive scheme, and adding Odell Beckham Jr.
Manning has thrown 15 or more interceptions seven times in his career, which is his biggest issue. Unfortunately for Manning, his offensive line is in shambles with injuries to left tackle William Beatty and Geoff Schwartz. If they return healthy, Manning should be close to replicating his production in 2014.
New York Jets—Geno Smith: Dealing with Pressure
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Although there was a lot of optimism that Geno Smith would improve in his sophomore season, he again struggled to show the development that the New York Jets needed. Entering his third season, the Jets have greatly improved their coaching staff and offensive weapons around Smith, giving hope he can take the next step this year.
The area Smith must greatly improve is his ability to deliver an accurate throw when he’s pressured. Pro Football Focus had Smith dead last in the NFL last year in throwing accuracy when pressured. Too often Smith can be seen throwing off his back foot, which leads to dangerous, uncatchable passes.
Defenses blitzed the Jets heavily last season, pressuring Smith the eighth most in 2014. The Jets hedged their bets on Smith this offseason, adding quality receivers like Brandon Marshall and Devin Smith, which will force defenses to stay honest more often.
Oakland Raiders—Derek Carr: Reading the Field
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There may not have been a worse situation for a quarterback to perform in than what the Oakland Raiders gave Derek Carr in 2014. The offensive scheme was too conservative, the running game was the worst in the NFL, and Carr's receivers were well below average. That being said, Carr had unsurprising struggles reading the field.
Carr ended up running a similar offense to what he came from at Fresno State. The issue was that Carr was too comfortable to take the first read and not extend plays. His 5.5-yard-per-attempt average was way too low when considering Carr’s arm talent.
As Carr’s situation has improved for 2015, he could be in for a sink-or-swim season. He’ll be challenged by a different offense, and must show he can read NFL defenses quickly.
Philadelphia Eagles—Sam Bradford: Health
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The Philadelphia Eagles could have a monstrous offense in 2015. Upgrading from Nick Foles to Sam Bradford is a massive talent upgrade. The only question is the obvious one: Can Bradford stay healthy?
Bradford has missed 31 games in five seasons due to various injuries. When he’s played, he’s shown good accuracy and decision-making. His 2.2 interception percentage rate is highly impressive.
The last time we saw Bradford play was 2013, when he had 14 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Expect that type of efficiency in head coach Chip Kelly’s potent offensive attack. He’ll also have the best offensive line and receiver group he’s ever had as a professional.
Pittsburgh Steelers—Ben Roethlisberger: Taking Sacks
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If you’re able to, think back to when Ben Roethlisberger was playing his first few seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Many had him labeled as a game manager who simply was orchestrating an efficient offense. That may have been true at that time, but the better part of the past decade has featured “Big Ben” playing dominant football.
Roethlisberger’s ability to extend plays despite chaos surrounding him, and then completing big plays, is what makes him so special. He has an otherworldly pocket presence and toughness. There are times, however, when Roethlisberger should simply throw the ball away.
The Steelers allowed 33 sacks last season, which was 17th in the NFL. That’s not horrible, considering Roethlisberger got rid of the ball at the seventh-fastest rate. His line is porous, which makes matters difficult.
For such a good quarterback, this is a small aspect of his game that can improve. Sometimes biting the bullet and playing for another down is the best option.
San Diego Chargers—Philip Rivers: Playing Under Pressure
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The past two seasons have put San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers back into the top crop of quarterback discussion. His resurgence has seen a more efficient version of Rivers, after two uninspiring seasons in 2011 and 2012. With Rivers playing like he did in his prime, the Chargers are playoff contenders.
If there’s ever been a decent way to slow Rivers, it’s to send pressure. Of his career-high 18 interceptions in 2014, eight came when he was pressured, per Pro Football Focus. His accuracy was also average, ranking 14th in the NFL.
As always with great quarterbacks, there’s a good chance of getting burned when risking pressure. Rivers did throw for eight touchdowns when pressured last season. But, ultimately, his poise is his biggest flaw.
San Francisco 49ers—Colin Kaepernick: Accuracy
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The 2014 season was a mess for the San Francisco 49ers, as they had some key injuries along the offensive line. Once this happened, more pressure was thrust onto quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Unfortunately, Kaepernick did not respond as well as hoped, and the 49ers season sputtered.
Some blame former offensive coordinator Greg Roman for Kaepernick’s lack of growth, but the issues are fundamental with him. Kaepernick doesn’t read the field particularly well, and when he does his lower body is often out of whack. This causes his accuracy to suffer, for which he tries to compensate by throwing harder. That doesn’t help things.
Kaepernick’s pass accuracy was a very pedestrian 72.6 percent, which puts him in the same company as Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith, per Pro Football Focus. He must take the next step with his accuracy to become a viable franchise quarterback. That transformation will start with his footwork and patience in the pocket.
Seattle Seahawks—Russell Wilson: Holding on to the Ball
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The Seattle Seahawks clearly got the steal of the 2012 NFL draft with quarterback Russell Wilson in the third round. He’s a Super Bowl winner, and led his team to another appearance. His playmaking and efficiency have been excellent for Seattle’s offense.
Every season that Wilson has been in the league, he has led the NFL in average time to throw the ball, per Pro Football Focus. He holds on to the ball longer than anyone else in the league, and has for three years running. This is something he must improve upon.
As the Seahawks negotiate with Wilson, they must stress how important this is. If Wilson were to suffer a lower-body injury, would he still be as dynamic? That remains to be seen, but the odds of injury can only rise if Wilson continues to keep the ball in his hands that long.
St. Louis Rams—Nick Foles: Accuracy
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At face value, the St. Louis Rams’ decision to trade Sam Bradford for Nick Foles made a little sense. Bradford was expensive and wore out his welcome with the Rams. Foles is a refreshing and young face to try to develop.
The issue is, Foles’ film was poor even during his 2013 season with the Philadelphia Eagles. Yes, even in a season where Foles had 27 touchdowns and two interceptions, it was clear how much heavy lifting his playmakers were doing. If Eagles head coach Chip Kelly thought that Foles was that caliber of quarterback, he would have kept him.
Reviewing Foles’ tape shows far too many examples of missed throws. Pro Football Focus agrees, ranking Foles 31st in the NFL in passing accuracy. Just 68.8 percent of his passes were deemed accurate, which is about 6 percent below the median score. He needs to tighten up his footwork and release before his accuracy can get to an average level.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Jameis Winston: Throwing over the Middle
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On the field, it was clear during the draft process that former Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston had more NFL-type training in college. Their system was similar to an NFL playbook, utilizing the pocket to call plays and spacing receivers in less-gimmicky ways.
As a freshman, Winston had an NFL-ready receiver in Kelvin Benjamin. His turnover count was low, with only 10 interceptions. Losing Benjamin stung badly, and Winston’s turnover rate swelled to 18.
Not all of these interceptions were Winston’s fault, or over the middle. But Winston’s penchant for forcing passes over the middle of the field must change immediately. There were too many instances where Winston would either ignore or just not see the underneath defenders. NFL linebackers will love feasting on Winston if he doesn’t correct this.
Tennessee Titans—Marcus Mariota: Creativity
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Watching Marcus Mariota puppeteer the Oregon Ducks offense was as masterful as any quarterback does in college. His intelligence, efficiency and running ability easily led him to the 2014 Heisman Trophy. He probably has better statistics than many create-a-players did in the old NCAA Football video game series.
In the games where Mariota struggled the most, it was because the defense forced him to improvise with his passing prowess. At times he played well enough to win. But he will not have the fastest and most talented team in the NFL, which is what happened in the 2015 national title game against Ohio State.
When plays break down, can Mariota win with his arm and make tough throws? That remains to be seen at the NFL level. It will also be what makes or breaks his career as an average signal-caller, or elite quarterback.
Washington Redskins—Robert Griffin III: Taking Sacks
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Quietly, Robert Griffin III was actually relatively good in 2014 when he was on the field. Pro Football Focus graded him as the third-most accurate passer, and his film showed some of that explosiveness back in his legs. With any luck, he could be closer to the 2012 version that really showed immense talent.
Unfortunately, the Washington Redskins offensive line could still be subpar in 2015. The 2014 cast allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL last year, 58. In nine games, Griffin took 33 of them, per PFF.
Not only is taking sacks bad for the offense, but also for Griffin’s health. He has the potential to be a top-10 quarterback in the league, but you can’t make a team in the tub. Let’s hope he’s able to stay healthy and return to prime form.
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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