Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 9's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice
As they enjoy the success or lament the failure of their players, fantasy baseball owners must put the past into proper prospective and look ahead to what they'll do in the future.
Succeeding in April and May doesn't guarantee four more strong months, nor do two lackluster months doom a player to a lost season. Rather than assume someone simply is who he is at this moment, managers must look at the full picture to predict their upcoming production.
Think of it like a season of TV programming. Sure, Game of Thrones followed up a strong start with one detested episode, and another unspectacular one after. Anyone who tuned out, however, missed this.
Much like White Walkers beyond the wall, certain MLB players are about to wake and wreak havoc. Fantasy owners will want them on their side when that happens.
Then there are the Weeds of the world that plateau early before falling off a cliff. Not that a decline needs to be as steep for fast starters worth selling, but now is a good time to examine their stock.
Buy: Jimmy Rollins, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
1 of 6
Having personally picked up Jimmy Rollins in two leagues, a trade might not even be necessary to acquire his services. If an impatient leaguemate dumped the Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop, grab him. If not, see if he or she will bite on a low-ball offer.
Drafted as a top-10, occasionally top-five shortstop, Rollins is hitting a mediocre .213/.281/.355 with his new club. While a low average shouldn't come as a massive shock considering he batted .243 last year, .213 is still far below 2014's career low and his .266 average since 2000.
If not for the average, nobody would complain about his season. He has delivered six homers and stolen bases apiece, a significant feat considering Marcus Semien is the only other shortstop with at least six in both categories. His 28 runs scored ranks among the top of his position leaderboard as well.
To serve as a quality starter the rest of the way, Rollins simply needs to hit .240-.250. The 36-year-old has displayed modest signs of life, going 12-for-44 (.273) with a pair of long balls during his last dozen games. While his age makes him a candidate for natural regression, he still has enough left in the tank for standard rotisserie gamers.
Sell: Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
2 of 6
This recommendation comes with an important disclaimer: If you're going to sell high on Joc Pederson, reach for the moon.
The rookie sensation has already blasted 17 home runs with a magnificent .390 on-base percentage and .603 slugging percentage. That gives him a .993 OPS, which ranks seventh behind Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Adrian Gonzalez, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Cabrera and Nelson Cruz.
While he has disappointed in the steals department, converting two of six tries, he swiped 30 bags in Triple-A last year. When 2015 is all said is done, he could still finish with 15 steals to accompany 30-plus dingers.
Now for the skeptical part. He's an all-or-nothing slugger constantly hitting 21 at the blackjack table. He won't sustain this pace and crush 45 dingers once his lofty 34.7 home run/fly ball percentage—the second-highest clip behind Tampa Bay's Steven Souza—normalizes. After homering in five straight games, four at Coors Field, his value will never be higher.
There's also his 29.0 strikeout percentage, which leaves owners hoping he can simply maintain his current .260 average. That's probably asking too much, as strikeout-prone rookies are vulnerable to long, arduous slumps.
Those in leagues that count any combination of walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage or OPS should skip to the next slide, as should keeper and dynasty owners. A five-by-five player in a yearly league, however, should see what Pederson can fetch on the trade market after his Coors power surge.
Buy: Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
3 of 6
Remember the love we all shared for Mookie Betts two months ago? The pure joy associated with tabbing a breakout star not drafted like one due to youth and lack of job security? Well, the Boston Red Sox have committed to playing him every day, but the results haven't been as advertised.
During 52 MLB games last season, Betts generated five homers and seven stolen bases. In 54 games this year, he has five homers and eight steals to his name. The only difference? He's now hitting .243 after concluding his debut with a .291 average.
Before his promotion, Betts batted .355 in Double-A and .335 for his Triple-A club. A career .315 hitter in the minors with strong plate discipline, he figured to deliver five-category production right from the start.
Although his walk rate has fallen to 7.5 percent, his strikeout percentage has also dropped to 12.4. He has made contact on over 88 percent of pitches while whiffing at only 4.4 percent of offerings. Those aren't the numbers of a .243 hitter.
With that, his .258 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) deserves a heavy portion of the blame. It also gives gamers who missed out on draft day another chance to buy low before he makes the anticipated leap to top-tier fantasy contributor.
He's still on the right path to a 15-25 season, and he has all the tools to hit .280 the rest of the way.
.png?w=256)
Sell: Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
4 of 6
The case of Michael Wacha is more complicated than it first appears. Holding a 2.18 ERA despite 6.01 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.56 fielding independent pitching (FIP), he's the quintessential sell-high pitcher.
Throw in eight wins and a .236 BABIP, and it's time to move him before the bottom comes out.
Yet he almost didn't make an appearance in this column. For starters, this is a really good pitcher with a 2.79 career ERA and 7.67 K/9 rate. Strikeouts were never a problem, and he has recently improved with 28 during his last 31.2 innings.
Also, his last two turns came against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the toughest offense for right-handed pitchers to combat. After allowing four runs the first time out, he yielded one through seven strong innings on Thursday night.
Like any trade candidate, Wacha's status depends on the price. He's not a hurler to move at all costs, but he's still not a top-20 starter going forward. If he can land an offense-starving team a significant bat or a fellow starter with better peripherals such as Carlos Carrasco, make the deal. Just don't feel like Wacha must go because of all the obvious signs.
Buy: Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago White Sox
5 of 6
Jose Quintana isn't an exciting, high-upside arm who will rebound in dominant fashion a la Corey Kluber. Yet he is a quality, underrated pitcher whose bloated 4.33 ERA and 1.36 WHIP will make him easy to attain.
Through 10 starts, Quintana has also generated a 8.20 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 and 3.30 FIP. Given his career 3.59 ERA and 3.52 FIP, it's safe to bet on that ERA decreasing over the next four months once his .339 BABIP levels out.
Since the Detroit Tigers struck him for 10 hits and nine runs on April 19, the lefty has brandished a 2.98 ERA in his last seven starts. Although he has issued four walks in two of his past three outings, control has never hampered the 26-year-old before.
Although not spectacular, Quintana remains a top-50 starter who should only cost an expendable part to acquire. Unless, of course, the person rostering him in your league is also reading, in which case... sorry. (But also, thanks for reading.)
Sell: Mark Melancon, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
6 of 6
Harboring a 2.45 ERA and 16 saves in 17 opportunities, Mark Melancon is not a closer with shaky job security. Those two strong numbers hopefully give him enough value to pawn off before it's too late.
After amassing 71 strikeouts during as many innings last season, Melancon has accumulated 13 punchouts through 25.2 frames. Before excusing a small sample size, his average velocity has dipped drastically on all pitches, and his swinging-strike percentage has plummeted from 13.9 to 8.1.
Not only does no closer have a lower K/9 rate than Melancon (4.6), few come particularly close. Among regular closers, only John Axford (6.75) and Brad Ziegler (5.04) have fanned fewer than seven per nine innings. Both are viewed as low-end, empty sources of saves, with Ziegler available in 70 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Once Melancon's good fortune eventually expires, the Pittsburgh Pirates can turn to Tony Watson, who sports a 1.50 ERA after a breakout 2014 campaign. An owner with saves to spare should seek out a manager desperate for another closer.
For an ultimate buy-low, sell-high closer swap, try exchanging him for Cody Allen, who has recovered from two early disastrous outings, amassing 34 strikeouts and a 2.56 FIP.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
Looking for more trade advice? Ask me on Twitter.
.png?w=480)
