French Open 2015 Men's Semifinals: Wawrinka vs.Tsonga Preview and Prediction
This first men’s semifinal matchup isn’t what you would likely have drawn up, but it’s a very interesting pairing nonetheless between Stan Wawrinka and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Both have proved they can win or contend in Grand Slams, and both match up well against each other.
Wawrinka took down his countryman Roger Federer in straight sets in the quarterfinals. Tsonga outlasted the un-outlastable Kei Nishikori in five sets to reach the semis.
Where to start? Let’s just dive right in.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Well, neither has the historical edge, though Wawrinka has a current win streak at two matches.
As previously stated, this matchup, if nothing else, is interesting. These players are 3-3 lifetime against one another with five of those matches coming on clay.
Two of those clay matches came in the French Open with each player winning one. In 2011, Wawrinka fell down two sets and surged back to defeat Tsonga, the only time that ever happened to the Frenchman.
Tsonga won the last meeting at the French Open in 2012. Again, Tsonga climbed ahead by two sets and blew the advantage, but he ultimately triumphed in a five-setter that tested his mettle.
Wawrinka at the French Open
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Wawrinka has had a lot of time to stew over his 2014 French Open result. He lost in the first round, after having won the Australian Open. He’d finish in the quarterfinals at the next two Grand Slams, but that first-round exit at Roland Garros is the pimple on an otherwise-beautiful face.
He was a quarterfinalist at Roland Garros in 2013 and exited the fourth round the previous three years.
SI.com’s Jon Wertheim wrote before the tournament:
"On the plus side, it won’t take much to exceed last year’s performance. Also on the plus side: he’s proven to himself that he has the capacity to win majors. More plus: he is coming off a defeat of Nadal. But overall, his play— amid disruptions in his personal life— has been dismal in 2015.
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This semifinal appearance makes two in a row at the Slams for Wawrinka.
Tsonga at the French Open
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Tsonga, on average, performs best at the French Open. See the above clay angel.
He’s got the country cheering for him, and aside from his French Open debut back in 2005 (where he lost in the first round), he routinely reaches Week 2. He even crushed Federer in the 2013 quarterfinals.
Still, even his past performances inspire little confidence.
Jon Wertheim of SI.com wrote of Tsonga before the tournament: "Sadly, J-WT seems to have entered his past-his-prime phase. In a team sport, he could enjoy the next five years in another role, using his athleticism and playing limited minutes to preserve his always-fragile health. Tennis affords no such luxury."
Health has been a problem for Tsonga, but the man puts it together for the French and is one match away from his first berth in a Grand Slam final since the Australian Open in 2008.
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The Biggest X-Factors
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Assuming the fashion police don’t arrest Wawrinka, the biggest X-factor could be the confidence he carries over from forcing Federer to his knees in straight sets.
"I'm really happy, for sure," Wawrinka said in Greg Garber’s ESPN.com story. "Really happy. I'm always really, really nervous when I play Roger, especially in the big match. But I play my best when I am that way. I'm a little bit surprised to win that match in three sets."
Wawarinka drilled 1.54 winners per game against Federer and had just 28 unforced errors all match. Wawrinka’s efficiency against Federer was, well, Federer-esque.
There’s also the matter of fatigue, and that could affect Tsonga more than Wawrinka. Tsonga comes in off a five-set match against Nishikori and just turned the dreaded age of 30, so the tires could be balding for Tsonga. He’ll need Paris, and France at large, to buoy him past his limitations.
Wawrinka Will Win If...
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He parlays that win against Federer into the semis.
Wawrinka, admittedly, gets nervous while playing Federer, someone he had beaten just twice in 18 meetings before their last encounter. Wawrinka then dismantled the previously un-dismantle-able Federer.
"We know he can do this,” Federer said in Greg Garber’s ESPN.com story. "It's just nice for him now, even talking for him, to string it together on a big occasion like this at the French where I always thought he'd have his best chance to do well."
The second straight berth in a Grand Slam semifinal is a big boost in confidence for the player who bounced out of this event in the first round a year ago. He has 204 winners through five matches for an average of 40.8 winners per match, so he's striking the ball very well.
He’s getting after it, and that confidence and aggression will be his best asset.
Tsonga Will Win If...
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He rides the French wave.
After starting the year with an arm injury, he missed crucial reps on the court. He appears to be playing his best tennis right now, and that’s reason for the French to get behind their fellow countryman.
Tsonga disposed of No. 4 seed Tomas Berdych, an Australian Open semifinalist, and then went the distance against Nishikori.
"The Frenchman missed the first three months of 2015 with an arm injury, then played some uninspired tennis on his way to Paris," ESPN.com’s Greg Garber wrote. "Oh, and he turned 30 in April, never a good thing for a professional tennis player. But as Tsonga moved through the draw, he seemed to find some confidence on his native soil."
He went four sets against Berdych and five against Nishikori. That cumulative wear and tear will take its toll on Tsonga.
Prediction
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Wawrinka in three.
Wawrinka has a physical mental edge over Tsonga.
Physical, in that he’s healthier and playing obsidian-sharp tennis. Mental, in that Wawrinka has come back from down two sets against Tsonga in the French Open and defeated him (2011). Wawrinka nearly did it again, though Tsonga managed to hold off the Swiss (2012).
Wawrinka has played more than three sets just once in this tournament, while Tsonga was pushed to four against Berdych and five against Nishikori.
Bleacher Report’s James Dudko wrote after the Federer match, “Wawrinka showed no fear against his illustrious opponent, and his bravado led to some exceptional shots.”
That power and skill on clay will propel him to his second career Grand Slam final.
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