French Open 2015 Men's Semifinals: Murray vs. Djokovic Preview and Prediction
Novak Djokovic shook the monkey off his back only to set up a clash with Andy Murray, a thirsty beast.
Djokovic defeated Rafael Nadal 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 to set up a semifinal showdown on Friday with Murray, who beat David Ferrer 7-6 (4), 6-2, 5-7, 6-1.
With Nadal out, somebody is going to win their first French Open title. Both riding some serious momentum, Djokovic and Murray believe they are that somebody.
Nadal, Murray and Djokovic—three-quarters of the Big Four—were stacked on one half of the draw. Fans eagerly awaited the juicy matchups. The only question was who might meet Murray—Djokovic or Nadal?
The two youngest and fittest of the Big Four, Djokovic and Murray are establishing themselves as the must-see showdown on the ATP Tour. They did their parts to hold off the onslaught of fresh faces, such as Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis.
They will meet for the 27th time. Somebody is going home, highly vexed.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
1 of 7
Djokovic leads the head-to-head 18-8. He's won seven straight and 10 of the last 11. He's also 2-0 against Murray on clay.
The last time they played, at the 2015 Miami Open, Djokovic won 7-6, 4-6, 6-0. It was a hard-hitting competitive match until Djokovic ran away with it in the final set.
Their matches are often physical skirmishes, matching athleticism and flexibility with power and pure brawn.
After the loss in Miami, Murray told reporters why Djokovic presents some challenges: "Physically he's in great shape; he hits the ball well off both sides. ... I feel like in a couple of the matches we played this year I feel like I've been able to hang with him, but just not quite for long enough unfortunately."
How Murray Has Looked so Far at the French Open
2 of 7
Murray arrived at Roland Garros after picking up clay-court titles in Madrid and Munich. The win in Munich was his first clay-court title. However, the win in Madrid was the more important. He defeated Nadal on clay for the first time.
Murray, who became the first British player to reach the semis at Roland Garros three times, had to beat back David Ferrer, a clay-court wizard. Murray had to dig in to fight off Ferrer, one of those players who seems to enjoy the grind. Ferrer took aim at Murray's serve, breaking him several times.
After cruising in the second set, it appeared Murray was headed to a straight-sets win. But Ferrer, never one to go quietly, fought back and took the third set 7-5.
Murray regrouped and decided to return to what he knows best: overpowering opponents. Murray pounded winners from both wings and rendered the fleet-footed Ferrer defeated. It was his first clay-court win over Ferrer.
Ferrer, ranked No. 7, is the only player Murray has faced who is in the top 20. However, he easily handled No. 29 Nick Kyrgios, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 in straight sets.
How Djokovic Has Looked so Far at the French Open
3 of 7
By ending Nadal's 39-match winning streak at Roland Garros, Djokovic kept alive his chances of winning his first career Grand Slam.
After failing six times before, Djokovic finally found the answer to Nadal.
Djokovic came out on fire against Nadal in the quarterfinals. He went up 4-0 before many Roland Garros patrons could return from the between-game bathroom break. But Nadal came roaring back and leveled the first set at 4-4.
This was a major test for Djokovic, who had squandered leads to Nadal in the past. He withstood Nadal's charge, steadied his game and went on to dismiss Nadal in straight sets.
Getting past Nadal has always been considered the highest hurdle Djokovic needed to clear at a French Open title.
Djokovic has yet to drop a set. His fourth-round match against Richard Gasquet was as easy as one-two-three, as in 6-1, 6-2, 6-3. He thwarted Kokkinakis, the up-and-coming Aussie, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.
If Nadal was the test, Djokovic earns an A-plus.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
The Biggest X-Factors
4 of 7
Djokovic and Murray know each other's games so well that it's unlikely either will unleash some never-seen-before tactic.
However, Murray could keep Djokovic on his heels with the serve. When Murray is hurling bombs and landing a high percentage of first serves, he forces his opponent to rethink the return. Murray's serve is a huge X-factor.
Djokovic holds a "been-there, done-that" advantage over Murray, who has yet to reach the final at Roland Garros. Murray lost in the semifinals in 2011 and 2014. Djokovic, however, has now reached the semifinals or better seven times.
Perhaps the biggest X-factor is the Nadal-less final awaiting the winner. With Nadal no longer a threat, how will Djokovic handle being the heavy favorite? Murray will have to deal with the prospect of reaching his first French Open final, knowing Nadal won't be lurking there.
Murray Will Win If...
5 of 7
Murray has to serve well. There is no way he survives Djokovic with a bad service day. He needs to get a high percentage of first serves in and get that ace machine working. His big serve is the best weapon he has to keep Djokovic planted beyond the baseline.
On return of serve, Murray has to practice smart aggression and pick his moments to attack the net. He's not going to outlast Djokovic, the gluten-free guru.
Instead, Murray must use his power to end rallies quicker. Take anything short and pummel it. He's got to pounce on Djokovic's second serves. If he can stay with Djokovic, the pressure mounts for the Serbian. Whether it's Nadal, Roger Federer, Murray or even Stan Wawrinka on the other end, occasionally Djokovic cracks under pressure.
Djokovic Will Win If...
6 of 7
Djokovic needs to keep calm and he'll cruise into the finals. Djokovic is playing brilliant tennis. His game just looks better than Murray's.
He's faster, fitter and a better in-match strategist than Murray. If Djokovic can stay in the moment and rid his mind of "what could be," he should have no problems performing well against Murray.
Even if Murray brings his A-game, it's not better than Djokovic's B-game. To win this match, Djokovic simply needs to bring his A-game and run Murray so ragged that he's forced into his C-game.
Prediction
7 of 7
If the definition of insanity means doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, Djokovic may have ended the madness at Roland Garros. Instead of his usual run-up to the French Open, Djokovic decided to opt out of playing in Madrid.
So far the approach has helped him breeze through to the semifinals and extinguish his hellish nightmare against Nadal at Roland Garros.
Murray has managed to exorcise a few demons, too. He won his first clay-court tournament. He beat Nadal. He won his first clay-court match against Ferrer. Murray hopes to become the first British man to win the French Open. Djokovic isn't the only man trying to accomplish something he's never done.
However, Djokovic has been fighting this demon longer and has gotten closer. He's lost that final match on Philippe Chatrier. He understands how gut-wrenching it feels to come close and leave a loser. He's felt the pain the day, a week, even months later.
Anguish avoidance can ignite adrenaline. It fuels the soul when limbs falter. Djokovic carries high-octane desire into this match. Both have fire burning in their bellies. But Djokovic's fire rages brighter. He'll torch Murray in straight sets.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
