College Football BestBets: Week One Betting Picks

It's ba-aack!!!

The college football season kicked off its opening game last night just past 7:00 in the east, and already, less than 24 hours later, the entire country is alive with football fever.

This season, I will be bringing you a weekly selection of five to seven specially picked games where I think the betting spread is significantly off-course. Each game will include a pick, several paragraphs of analysis, and a points rating.

The points system marks how much value the pick is worth. For instance, if Team A is favored by 7.5 over Team B, and I think Team A will win by about four, they will get a points rating based on the fact I think that the spread for the game is about 3.5 points away from my projection.

The points system represents 200 as the maximum total per game, with lower totals coming in at 150, 100, 75, 50, 25, and 10. Each week also includes a "BestBet," which is the, well, "Best Bet" of the week!

So, on with the Week One picks. Eight games are included in this weekly addition.

OHIO STATE.....21.5.....Navy (150 points)

Ohio State may never have lost a home opener, but I seriously doubt they'll win this one by more than three touchdowns. Navy is just too good a team.

My spread would be at about 14.0, actually. I can see the Midshipmen putting up quite a few points in this one. Go ahead and lay down your bet on Navy, for I have a great feeling it will really pay off.

Pick: Navy (+21.5)

MICHIGAN......12.5.....Western Michigan (50 points)

I think the history of Michigan, as well as the fact they're in a BCS conference, has got Vegas feeling good about Wolverines.

Frankly, I can see Western Michigan as a candidate to move up the rankings quickly this season. Michigan may win, but it could be close. I'm not as certain on this as I was on Ohio State, but I certainly am not feeling good for Big Ten teams this weekend!

Pick: Western Michigan(+12.5)

Oklahoma.....22....BYU (100 points)

Yet another pick against a top-level BCS team. But really, think about it. Oklahoma against another top 25 team, on the road, and they are favored by more than three TDs?!

I could see around a 24-13 victory for the Sooners here, but expect BYU to easily cover.

Pick: BYU (+22)

WAKE FOREST......2.....Baylor (25 points)

Baylor has had a lot of hype this season, but I'm not positive this spread is accurate.

First of all, the Bears are headed a long distance to a road affair with a seasonal bowl winner from a BCS conference...which isn't quite the best recipe for success.

Plus, I think that the Deacons will have a lot to prove in this one, and they should come out emotionally strong. It will probably still be close, but I could see the spread maybe rise a little before game time.

Pick: Wake Forest (-2)

Alabama......6.5.......Virginia Tech (25 points)

The more I think about, the less sure I get, but I could see this being a last-second field goal win for 'Bama, not a seven-point victory.

I don't have a lot of reasoning on my side for this one, nor is my confidence rising on it, so don't put to much faith in it. But you can still put your money on Tech.

Pick: Virginia Tech (+6.5)

NEW MEXICO STATE.......3......Idaho (75 points)

This will not be a game a lot of people will even watch, and it obviously won't be anything close to a game many people will bet on. But it's a great idea if you do.

First of all, I don't see why the public is betting evenly on a spread that favors New Mexico State. Not to mention that Idaho is one of my picks to be a majorly improved team from last year. So, even though it may not be the most meaningful game, it could turn out to be a meaningful profit for you.

UCLA.....19.5......San Diego State (10 points)

This is another game that will not be highly watched, bet on, or entertaining. But you could reap the benefits if you bet it right.

For some reason, I feel better about this pick when I think about it in the case that SDSU loses by 24 or so, instead of UCLA winning by 24 or so. They are rivals, but it's the most mismatched rivalry you'll find. Still, I'd lean towards the Bruins, though don't go all in on this one.

Pick: UCLA (-19.5)

Weekly BestBet:

TEXAS.......41.....Louisiana-Monroe (200 points)

It seems really, really, really illogical to me that the Longhorns, even with their No. 2 preaseason ranking, could beat a team that has a chance to reach a bowl by 41 points on an average day. That's why I have to give this probable-blowout the "Weekly BestBet" title.

In truth, I could see a score here of about 38-7 in favor of Texas, but that's still only a 28-point victory, nothing near 41. Also, I doubt that the Longhorns management will play McCoy much if it gets past 20 points in the second half. To put it simply, L-Monroe is not a quality opponent. But they're closer than 41 points worse.

Pick: Louisiana-Monroe (+41)

Note: These predictions and their corresponding point evaluations are based on my opinion alone. They are not required bets by any means, but on the other side, I am not responsible for any cash losses suffered by suggested bets that did not pay off. However, I am sincerely sorry for any incorrect suggested bets that I posted on this article.