MLB Draft 2015: Selection Order and Predictions for 1st-Round Baseball Prospects

After months and, in some cases, years of scouting high school and college players, all 30 Major League Baseball teams will put that hard work to good use with the 2015 first-year player draft. 

The path to this year's draft has been unusual because no one has stepped up to take a firm hold of the top pick, though that does add to Arizona's drama as it debates what to do with the selection. It makes for great television, if nothing else. 

After the Diamondbacks pick, Houston has a chance to do some serious damage with two of the top five picks after getting the No. 2 selection as compensation for failing to sign Brady Aiken last year. Not only does that give the Astros a chance to add more talent, but the extra slot money will let them allocate funds to picks no other team can match. 

Just those storylines on their own are enough to carry an entire draft, but there's so much going on for every team in the final hours leading up to the start Monday night that it's hard to unpack it all. 

Pick	Team	Player
1	Arizona Diamondbacks	Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt
2	Houston Astros	Brendan Rogers, SS, Lake Mary HS (Florida)
3	Colorado Rockies	Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois
4	Texas Rangers	Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
5	Houston Astros	Daz Cameron, Eagle's Landing Christian Academy (Georgia)
6	Minnesota Twins	Alex Bregman, SS, LSU
7	Boston Red Sox	Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas
8	Chicago White Sox	Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt
9	Chicago Cubs	Kyle Tucker, OF, Plant HS (Florida)
10	Philadelphia Phillies	Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati
11	Cincinnati Reds	Tyler Stephenson, C, Kennesaw Mountain HS (Georgia)
12	Miami Marlins	Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State
13	Tampa Bay Rays	Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona
14	Atlanta Braves	James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA
15	Milwaukee Brewers	Chris Betts, C, Wilson HS (California)
16	New York Yankees	Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Pomona
17	Cleveland Indians	Garrett Whitley, OF, Niskayuna HS (New York)
18	San Francisco Giants	Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg HS (Pennsylvania)
19	Pittsburgh Pirates	Cornelius Randolph, SS, Griffin HS (Georgia)
20	Oakland Athletics	Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt
21	Kansas City Royals	Phil Bickford, RHP, College of Southern Nevada
22	Detroit Tigers	Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville
23	St. Louis Cardinals	Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia
24	Los Angeles Dodgers	Mike Matuella, RHP, Duke
25	Baltimore Orioles	Richie Martin, SS, Florida
26	Los Angeles Angels	Blake Trahan, SS, Louisiana-Lafayette
27	Colorado Rockies	Kyle Holder, SS, San Diego
28	Atlanta Braves	Dakota Chalmers, RHP, North Forsyth HS (Georgia)
29	Toronto Blue Jays	Ashe Russell, RHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (Indiana)
30	New York Yankees	Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona
31	San Francisco Giants	Justin Hooper, LHP, De La Salle HS (California)
32	Pittsburgh Pirates	Drew FInley, RHP, Rancho Bernardo HS (California)
33	Kansas City Royals	Jacob Woodford, RHP, Plant HS (Florida)
34	Detroit Tigers	Jacob Nix, RHP, IMG Academy (Florida)
35	Los Angeles Dodgers	Austin Smith, RHP, Park Vista HS (Florida)
36	Baltimore Orioles	Joe McCarthy, OF, Virginia

Is the Battle for No. 1 Over?

Even though the fight for the top overall talent in the draft remains a debate among analysts, it seems apparent that Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson will be the newest member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo did note in a recent mock draft that Swanson to Arizona may not be a lock, even though there is some merit to it:

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The buzz surrounding Swanson in this top spot does have some legs, and it would be foolish to dismiss it. It would also be wrong to consider it a slam dunk at this point, with the D-backs still exploring several options, including bringing Georgia high school catcher Tyler Stephenson in for a workout.

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Unlike other sports, where posturing at the top of the draft is normal because teams can trade picks, baseball teams can be legitimately torn by multiple players because all of them are worth selecting. 

Swanson has done everything a team considering him at No. 1 could ask, notably getting better with each season, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic noted: 

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Swanson hit .333/.411/.475 with 27 doubles and three homers in 282 at-bats as a sophomore; he was at .350/.438/.654 with 21 doubles and 13 homers entering NCAA Regional play. Last year, he took home College World Series MVP honors as Vanderbilt won its first men's title of any kind in school history.

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In the same Piecoro piece, Swanson's coach at Vanderbilt, Tim Corbin, praised the shortstop's ability to perform when the pressure is on. 

"The thing that is noticeable about Dansby and guys like him who play at that level, is that they rise to another level when things matter," Corbin said. "When something is on the line or there is a moment, he thrives in it. He's got an extra gear."

Swanson has a track record of success at one of the best baseball schools in one of the best baseball conferences in the country. He plays a premium position, plays it well and should move quickly for a franchise that sorely lacks impact talent at virtually every spot on the diamond except first base. 

The First Pitcher Off the Board

Pitcher injuries have been a key storyline in the draft for the last few years, dating back to Lucas Giolito in 2012 and peaking with Jeff Hoffman and Erick Fedde being taken in the first round coming off Tommy John surgery last year.

That recent trend could continue in 2015 with Aiken and Mike Matuella also recovering from Tommy John surgery, though neither will be in the mix as the top pitcher off the board. Instead, the two names generating that buzz are Illinois left-hander Tyler Jay and UC Santa Barbara right-hander Dillon Tate. 

Baseball America's John Manuel had Jay as the first pitcher off the board at No. 3 to Colorado in his fourth mock draft, noting even with other options possibly in play that the "bottom line is the Rockies need pitching and they can’t acquire arms like Jay’s on the free-agent market."

One interesting note about Jay is the way Illinois used him. Even though the southpaw has starter stuff, he pitched this season out of the bullpen. He was fantastic in that role, as these numbers from NCAA Baseball show:

Once Jay gets into pro ball, he will be a starter. No team is going to take a pure reliever with the third overall pick, at least not knowingly. Sometimes a player will prove to be incapable of starting after years in the minors, which happens all the time. 

The Rockies are keeping their options open, as ESPN's Keith Law noted in his second mock draft they are "on Dillon Tate." Tate was going to start the season as a reliever, but Law wrote in March that the right-hander was inserted into the rotation due to another player's injury. 

In the March report, Law noted the two pitchers Tate reminds him of at the time they were drafted:

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One, which is obviously a best-case scenario, is Justin Verlander, who came out of Old Dominion with a huge fastball but major questions about his command and control, only to develop significantly in just about all areas of his game within two years of signing. The other is Edwin Jackson, who always has had some of the best pure stuff in the game, including a fastball that has touched 99 mph and an easier delivery than Tate's, with better athleticism.

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Verlander developed into one of MLB's best starting pitchers after debuting in 2006. He may not be what he once was, but his run from 2009-13 would be more than enough to satisfy a Colorado team that has never been able to develop impact starting pitching. 

Tate has a long way to go before anyone could put him in Verlander's camp, and the more likely scenario is he will end up being closer to Edwin Jackson, yet the Rockies have an interesting conundrum to answer at No. 3. 

Jay gets the nod for the Rockies because he's a polished left-hander with a low-90s fastball, power curveball and present command that Tate doesn't have. It's a close gap between the top two pitchers, with both worthy of being the first one off the board. 

Houston's Draft "Problem"

Pat Sullivan/Associated Press

Things are looking up for the Astros. They have a terrific farm system, led by Carlos Correa, who will join the team Monday, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, and currently lead the American League West. 

Oh, and the Astros also pick second and fifth in the draft. They had to take a lot of bad publicity for their failed negotiations with Aiken and Jacob Nix, both of whom are eligible for this year's draft, but it did help the team for this draft in a roundabout way. 

Because of the way MLB slots draft bonus pools, the Astros have substantially more money than any team to spend in 2015. According to a February report from Manuel, Houston has a total pool of $17.2 million and Colorado is second with just under $14 million. 

That means Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and the scouting department don't have to concern themselves with the bonus demands of any player, knowing they can afford them with plenty left to spare if they want to get creative in the third, fourth and fifth rounds for players who may have been passed over. 

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

This should be a good problem to have, but it's actually shaping up to be a potential burden for the franchise based on the talent in this year's class. 

As noted by Phillipe Craig of the Houston Chronicle, one problem for Houston as it seeks to add talent to its system this year is the lack of high-end depth in this class:

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One rival front-office member wondered whether the Astros would believe it’s worth it to spend every bit of their pool money this year. Another suggested that there isn’t enough depth for a repeat of 2012, and that an attempt to spread the money around significantly would leave the Astros with a lot of leftover dollars or agents bleeding them for every available penny.

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It's an unfortunate catch-22 the Astros put themselves in by failing to get the deal done with Aiken last year. Yet Luhnow has done such a good job of figuring out how to play the draft in his favor, going back to his first class in 2012 that brought in Correa, Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz. 

It's not often that having too much money in baseball is a bad thing, but the Astros are in the unique position of having to juggle what they want to add in terms of talent and how much agents try to negotiate for their clients knowing the team can afford to pay up.