French Open 2015 Women's Semifinal: Ivanovic vs. Safarova Preview and Prediction
The 2015 French Open semifinal between Ana Ivanovic and Lucie Safarova is an interesting contest between two talented forces who have seen a lot of adversity through their mid-20s. Right now they are playing their best tennis, and the match promises to be a battle.
These two have not merely survived a depleted field of upsets in the bottom of the bracket; they have thrived with aggressive and steady tennis, fully deserving of the right to play for the final. They are not household superstar names to the casual sports fans like "Serena" (Williams) and "Maria" (Sharapova), but Ana and Lucie can change some of that now.
Our semifinal preview will showcase why this match could go either way as we detail their head-to-head clashes and recent play at Roland Garros.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Surprise. Safarova might be less renowned of the two, but the 28-year-old star from the Czech Republic has had a very good, if often invisible, career. Most importantly, the lefty has created plenty of problems for Serbian Ivanovic. She holds the advantage in their head-to-head matchups, 5-3, and won those five in consecutive matches until Ivanovic stopped the bleeding on the faster courts at Tokyo last fall.
Ivanovic can claim the big-match career highlight with her 2008 French Open title, crushing Safarova in the second round along the way. They were much younger then, staring at bright careers with visions of many titles and majors. Ivanovic perhaps has this advantage to fall back on, understanding the pressures of the final four and maintaining this confidence in the back of her mind, if not in the forefront of her current run.
On the other hand, Safarova defeated Ivanovic 6-3, 6-3 at the 2014 French Open after the Serbian had been playing some of the best tennis in her career. Safarova was clearly more composed with her balance of aggressive topspin and patience. She forced Ivanovic into her dark, self-destructive tendencies, missing the court too often and dying the way she likes to win.
Because Safarova has dominated their meetings in recent years, especially at Roland Garros a year ago, she gets the nod for the historical edge.
Ivanovic at the 2015 French Open
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There's a feisty quality to the way Ivanovic plays. The world No. 7 is unafraid of mixing it up against the likes of Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka. She defeated Serena Williams at Australia last year and played tough against her at Rome and Stanford.
Ivanovic has been less consistent in 2015, but she has been increasingly steady from the first round to the semifinal. She had to rally a set down in the first two matches against unseeded opponents but finished strong each time.
Ivanovic hit her forehand with more accuracy in recent matches, knocking off Ekaterina Makarova, who has been playing underrated tennis since Wimbledon, including in the semifinals at the U.S. Open and Australia. Ivanovic's forehand produced 30 winners in her quarterfinal triumph over Elina Svitolina. That's her bread and butter.
Following the match, she had a sense of appreciation for how hard it has been to return to the French Open semifinals, years after her phenomenal rise and inconsistent, lean year. She told WTA Tennis, "It's been a long road and hard work. And you can't take any victory for granted, let alone a quarterfinal. It's not every day that you reach that - it's been a long time. So I am really pleased."
Standing 6'0", 27-year-old Ivanovic has the power and movement to hit her way through Lucie Safarova. The question is if she has the patience and cleanliness to defeat Safarova, a player who can torment her with nasty spin.
It's going to be tough.
Safarova at the 2015 French Open
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Safarova is ascending. Maybe her surprising appearance to reach the 2014 Wimbledon semifinals was the catalyst, bur right now, she is looking like the prototypical player to master clay—a surface that allows her to thrive with her topspin and gain more time to lean into her strokes.
She began the tournament by winning two tough tiebreakers and has still not dropped a set. Most impressively, she handled powerful hitters Sabine Lisicki and Maria Sharapova—the latter being last year's French Open champion. Sharapova came away impressed, saying that Safarova was the better player, according to Jim Caple of espnW.com:
"I think she has really picked up her level. I think she's much more consistent off of both wings. She's playing really aggressive. I think she has a little bit more time on clay, allows her to use those lefty angles a little bit more. And she's done that extremely well.
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Safarova followed that up with another great win against young Spaniard Garbine Muguruza, who is already proving to be a tough clay-courter and possible French Open champion of the future. The key for Safarova, which bodes well in her next match, was her ability to stay composed through the first set. There was pressure, but she was locked into her strokes and didn't bat an eye.
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The Biggest X-Factors
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Confidence
Both players have put themselves into position for a special chance at a major title. Of the two, Ivanovic has had an on-and-off-again affair with her confidence. It depends most on how well her forehand is doing. Safarova looks like a different player altogether, as if she has made the leap for good into the top 10. She's riding high and has been more dominant this fortnight, so give her the edge.
Wind or Sun? Ivanovic played well in the quarterfinals' blustery conditions. She moved her feet and compensated for tricky wind by blasting safely into the court.
Safarova's heavy topspin can keep the ball safely in the court and cause Ivanovic more problems with a more unnatural southpaw sidespin. If the weather is dry and hot, this looks to favor Safarova's more grinding style.
Crowd Support
Which player will the Parisians get behind? Ivanovic would no doubt enjoy the support, but Safarova might not care. She's so locked in right now she'll ignore the pressure.
Ivanovic Will Win the Semifinal If...
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Ivanovic is seeded higher than Safarova and ranked No. 7 in the world. She just played one of her best matches in clubbing 30 winners with her forehand. And that's her key. If she can control her power and put pressure on Safarova early in most of their points, she will win.
Serving and setting up the forehand will be important, but she will need to have her legs ready to move from corner to corner. Safarova has bothered her in the past with her quick angles and bedeviling topspin, forcing Ivanovic into committing errors and trying her patience.
A fast start would be ideal. If she comes out strong, quick and full of energy, she could cruise to a first-set win and put doubts in Safarova, who has been the front-runner in all of her matches so far. She needs to create her own dominance and crack Safarova's more methodical rhythm.
Safarova Will Win the Semifinal If...
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Can she continue to rip sharp angles with her backhand and take the ball early from inside the baseline? If so, she has proved to be a nemesis to Ivanovic. She is playing physical, smart tennis and has been the better player during this tournament, with two big wins coming into the semifinal.
Safarova needs to continue to play the way she has, finding the right times to hit winning line drives after launching her heavy topspin. She's very capable of winning the semifinal by imposing her way of playing regardless of what Ivanovic does.
She's improved her physical conditioning, and there's an extra gear in the way she moves. If she plays clean, unbridled tennis, she will win.
Prediction
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Earlier this week, my "Bold Predictions" column speculated that Ivanovic could win the French Open. She's still very much on pace to do this, but I'm going to hedge on that. Maria Sharapova might have been the opponent she would have been more comfortable to battle.
I don't like the matchup for Ivanovic. Right now, Safarova is playing at a scary level and has shown aggressive patience and composure from both wings.
This is not to say that Safarova is Thomas Muster or Rafael Nadal, but her game is fitting in so well on red clay and her left-handed forehand is balanced terrifically by a backhand that might be an even better weapon. If she is on, she will win.
Will either player force the other to adjust? Probably not much. Their strategies are clear, but Safarova stands a greater chance to execute her game plan with more efficiency.
Either player could win, but I'm leaning toward Safarova to win the semifinal and play for the French Open title.
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