2015 French Open: Bold Predictions for the 2nd Week
Heading into the second week of the 2015 French Open, the men’s draw has mostly held up to expectations, with superstars Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic ready to set up their highly anticipated quarterfinal.
Meanwhile, France has its modern four musketeers marching into the second week, but will any of them (Gilles Simon sent packing before the quarterfinal) claim at least a semifinal berth?
The women’s draw, as usual, has had more parity, but top seeds Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova continue to win. Power tennis has ruled over retrieving rabbits.
There are countless possibilities and combinations to what could happen in the final week, but it’s fun to go out on a limb and try for a few bold predictions. The following slides are guesses, and if a few of them turn out close to the mark, we will consider ourselves lucky.
We are starting the conversation with some bold possibilities, but reality will have its own way as it plays out at Roland Garros.
Andy Murray Will Not Face Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal
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Andy Murray is a two-time French Open semifinalist, and he is having his best career run on clay, with his only titles ever on this surface, winning at Munich and Madrid in the past month.
But Murray is not going to win the French Open; he's not even going to get into the semifinals. He implied he will be in an uphill battle, according to comments in BBC Sport: "It is never easy for me. Clay is not a surface that I have ever felt comfortable on. The matches get tougher every round, and hopefully I can play some good tennis next week."
He's going to have his hands full trying to get by talented but erratic Jeremy Chardy, a player who can be self-destructive but on the right day capable of troubling anyone. Chardy lost to Murray at Rome, 6-4, 6-3, but his big forehand and a strong serving day could help him dictate play.
If Murray does advance, he will certainly not have an easy time against David Ferrer who is a better clay-court player and who is unafraid of battling Murray. He defeated Murray in the 2012 quarterfinal at Roland Garros.
If Ferrer falls to Marin Cilic, the big Croatian has also proven to be a dangerous threat capable of winning a major. His power and fundamentals are excellent, and if he keeps oiling up his game, it would be only a minor upset to see him defeat Murray.
Regardless, Murray will fall before the final weekend.
Maria Sharapova Will Stumble
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The defending French Open champion removed a few doubts that she could defend her French Open title by winning the Italian Open.
But she's not playing at the level she did in spring 2014, and that will cost her.
The best bet to defeat Sharapova is Ana Ivanovic. Although the Serbian is also trying to get back to playing like it's 2014, she has enough power and moxie to defeat Sharapova, crushing her 6-1, 6-4 on Rome's slow clay last year and defeating her at the fast hard courts at Cincinnati.
It would be a must-watch match for sure, each player with enough weapons and confidence to defeat the other. It might not be a giant bold prediction, but to send the Queen of Clay packing before the final is worthy enough of a statement.
Kei Nishikori Will Get Overpowered
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Kei Nishikori has shown improved consistency the past two years, but is he hitting a wall?
The Japanese star was blasted off the court at the Australian Open by Stan Wawrinka's more powerful strokes. He was pushed around by a surprisingly dominant offensive effort by Andy Murray at Madrid.
I don't like his chances of having to get through Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and a partisan Parisian crowd. Following up against Stan Wawrinka would probably seal his doom. He might stand a better chance against Roger Federer or Gael Monfils if he returns well against the Federer serve or forces Monfils into mistakes.
Following his loss, Nishikori will be so upset that he fires coach Michael Chang and steals his 1989 French Open trophy. (OK, that's an absurd prediction, so never mind on that one.)
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Serena vs. Petra Will Be an Ugly Match
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Serena Williams has a lot of versatility to her game, but she hates it when her opponent has the power advantage. It's part of the pride in being Serena. She wants to be the best server, the best baseliner and hit with the most powerful and smartest shots. It usually happens too.
At Madrid, Petra Kvitova got through Serena with some fresh power of her own. It was moderately surprising because she is not a clay-court player, and she was able to play within herself, not self-destructing with wildness.
This time around, both players are targeted for the French Open semifinals. There are some important points to consider. First, Serena has a way of turning a previous loss to an opponent into a dominating win the next time around. She will be focused and ready to show her power. Second, it will be difficult for Kvitova to lift her game. She is likely to spray more errors this time around.
All of this could produce a lopsided match with a lot of powerful highlights and unforced slugging attempts. It won't be pleasant to watch without the contrasting touch and strategy that players such as Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki can provide. Of course those players are gone in large part because they do lack power.
Years ago, at the height of their rivalry, when Serena and sister Venus played, they often produced unwatchable, ugly games with a lot of sloppy errors and frustration. That's what we could get with Serena and Kvitova.
No Classic Between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal
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World No. 1 Novak Djokovic and nine-time French Open winner Rafael Nadal are on course for the biggest quarterfinal match in tennis history. At stake is, well just about everything. The loser will see his dream come to an end and feel painful disappointment at least.
Just don't expect a five-set classic like their 2013 semifinal, perhaps the greatest clay-court match in history.
Notwithstanding the improbability of playing up to a classic precedent, there will be a lot of pressure weighing in on these two superstars. Media questions and 24/7 thoughts will weigh heavy on their own minds and performances. They will be tight in the early going and probably make nervous errors until one settles in and the other digs in to respond.
If Nadal gets buried early, it will be very tough for him to come back. He has not responded well in the clay-court season when the opponent jumps out. Djokovic, Fabio Fognini, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka have all trounced him in the second sets after claiming the first. (The Fognini tiebreaker was more of a Rafa meltdown.
Unlike years ago when Nadal could bounce back against Federer after losing the first set, Nadal knows that 2015 Djokovic, who has learned to pour it on the Spaniard after a quick start, is a tougher matchup.
Forget about last year's French Open final that saw Djokovic win the first set and then lose the next three. This time around, he is healthier, and Nadal has been down another level. Nadal still has to answer questions about winning a big match. He's less likely to make this competitive if he can't grab the first set.
They have played each other 43 times, and each player will understand the value of being the aggressor. Nadal's defense, not quite up to previous years, could produce more errors against the best player in the world. There's a fair chance that the match will be lopsided.
Ana Ivanovic Will Win the French Open
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She is already cruising into the quarterfinals and has proven that she can beat Maria Sharapova on clay. Ana Ivanovic has enough power and presence to win the French Open. After all, she did so in 2008 on her way to a brief time with the No. 1 ranking.
Last year, she was the only player to defeat Sharapova during the European clay-court period, and she matches up well because she is unafraid of Sharapova's methodical, power approach. This year, Sharapova is not playing as well as 2014, and Ivanovic should get through to the final.
We'll take her to surprise either Serena Williams or Petra Kvitova. She has the talent and strength to hold up well, and if she hits her zone, she will win against either player, who is still uncomfortably out of her element with some struggles during the past week.
Roger Federer Will Win the 1st Set of the French Open Final
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We're skipping through the bottom of the bracket with the Artful Roger. That's right, the wily legend will survive Gael Monfils, take advantage of Stan Wawrinka's unsteadiness and play a clean match in the semifinals.
Federer must then take the first set against his French Open rival in the final. It will be important because it means that his cat-and-mouse approach at net will work. It will put pressure on the opponent to raise his game. Federer is nothing if not an intelligent offensive genius. He's often been underrated in terms of his tennis thinking and his steadiness during adversity.
But it's asking a lot for the Swiss Maestro to win three sets against either of his biggest rivals. Rafael Nadal has historically owned and tormented Federer on clay. Novak Djokovic blitzed him at Rome from the baseline. He was stronger and more consistent when Federer's serve and first strike could not control the points.
But after a four-year absence from the French Open final, aging Federer will give his fans another great memory of why he has been a multi-surface threat like no other player.
Novak Djokovic Will Struggle in at Least One Match but Claim the Title
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Nadal's dynasty might look as if it has been easy, but the Spaniard has had to navigate through troublesome matches over the years, and even he will insist that many of his victories that look easy have required all of his energy and effort.
For example, do tennis fans remember that he was pushed hard in the first round of the 2013 French Open against Daniel Brands? Nadal said afterward, per ATP World Tour: "He was playing unbelievable. I just tried to find my game and tried to resist his fantastic shots. He played a fantastic match and put me in a very difficult situation. I'm very happy to be through."
World No. 1 and French Open favorite Novak Djokovic could have more than one scare with potential matches against Nadal, Murray, Federer, Wawrinka, Nishikori or Tsonga. That's a lot of talent and potential trouble if Djokovic is subpar.
Nevertheless, the Serbian is also a survivor. He has proven that he can survive lackluster play, deficits and his opponents' inspired playing style. He has outlasted, outfought and held up when toughness and mental strength are his last reserve. And he might need all of this to win his first French Open title.
Most important, when he does find these obstacles, he will find a way to victory. At long last, the Serbian will join the ranks of French Open champions.
Rafael Nadal Will Win His 10th French Open Title
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Rafael Nadal will win his 10th French Open title at age 30; that's right, he will reclaim his crown in 2016.
The proud Spaniard and King of Clay is bumping up against two problems in 2015. First, he has not played up to his standards for a year. Second, rival Novak Djokovic is at his all-time level on clay right now, and he's not going to be denied this time around. Nadal won't be able to stop him in the quarterfinals.
There will then follow headlines and discussions that prematurely throw dirt on Nadal's grave. Many tennis observers will wonder if he is finished as a major contender as his ranking falls to No. 10, bumping up against Grigor Dimitrov and facing the long summer and fall on grass and fast hard courts.
Will the Spanish legend go into another rehabilitating or rebuilding mode?
There will be more valleys and peaks along the way, but by the time the Australian Open comes around, Nadal will be fitter, trimmer and quicker on his feet. He will contend Down Under and perhaps be a surprise winner.
Most important to him, his career pride and legendary abilities will push him to find renewal during the 2016 clay-court season.
He will be a determined challenger, fighting his way back for titles at Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome. He will be ready for another run at Roland Garros. He will get a better draw. He will be hungrier and snarling for one last great drive to the top of European's red-clay kingdoms, capped by another comeback, taking the French Open a year after he is written off.
To be sure, Djokovic will be his annual championship threat, but he will also be fulfilled.
Nadal will want it more. He will remind the world that he is the eternal King of Clay, while Paris' tournament officials engrave his name as the 2016 French Open champion.
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