NBA Finals 2015: Cavaliers vs. Warriors Spread, Odds, Prop Bets and Betting Tips
It's not often in sports that things work out exactly as they were supposed to. When the NBA playoffs started, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors were the favorites to meet in the Finals.
Nearly two months after the postseason began, the Cavaliers and Warriors will square off starting Thursday. LeBron James is no stranger to this stage, making his fifth consecutive appearance in the NBA Finals and sixth overall, but the rest of the team is largely in uncharted waters.
Stephen Curry and the Warriors are in a new terrain, appearing in the franchise's first NBA Finals since winning a title in 1975. The health of Klay Thompson, who was diagnosed with a concussion after Game 5 against Houston with no timetable to return, will be a key storyline.
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Due to the lack of a championship track record for both teams, aside from James, anything can happen once the series tips off from Oracle Arena on June 4. Here are what the oddsmakers think will happen in the series, as well as trends to follow before placing your bets.
Finals Odds
| Cleveland Cavaliers (+5.5) | Cleveland Cavaliers (19-10) |
| Golden State Warriors (-5.5) | Golden State Warriors (5/12) |
Prop Bets
| Stephen Curry | 10-23 |
| LeBron James | 2-1 |
| Klay Thompson | 11-1 |
| Kyrie Irving | 12-1 |
| Draymond Green | 16-1 |
| J.R. Smith | 75-1 |
| Tristan Thompson | 100-1 |
| Andrew Bogut | 100-1 |
| Harrison Barnes | 100-1 |
| Andre Iguodala | 100-1 |
| Timofey Mozgov | 200-1 |
How to Bet
Finals MVP
If you are looking for a return on investment with the NBA Finals MVP, you will be upset if the Warriors win. Curry is a huge betting favorite to win the honor with 10-23 odds. There's a reason for that, besides the fact he was named the league's MVP this season.
Going back to 1990, the list of NBA Finals MVPs is essentially comprised of the best player on the winning team. Even Kawhi Leonard proved his breakout series wasn't a fluke last year by averaging a career-high 16.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game and was named Defensive Player of the Year.
Before Leonard in 2014, the list of names includes James, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan and Hakeem Olajuwon. All of those players have been inducted or will be inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame.
Curry's role for the Warriors has never been in doubt, but it will be even more important depending on the health of Thompson. Fortunately, the Warriors star is able to create any shot or pass he wants.
Even James has said leading up to the Finals that it's impossible to slow Curry down, according to Dave McMenamin of ESPN:
"You can't (slow him down).
...
I think a lot of people don't understand how great his motor is. He never stops moving. His ballhandling, his ability to shoot the ball off the dribble and off the catch. It's uncanny. I don't think there's ever been a guy in the league to shoot the ball the way he does off the dribble or off the catch, off the ball. He just creates so many matchup problems for your defense, and you just always have to be aware.
"
Curry is the Warriors' golden ticket to a championship. He's held his own thus far in the playoffs with 29.2 points and 6.4 assists per game with a three-point shooting percentage of 43.7.
On the Cleveland side, James will provide a small return if he is named MVP. He's won the honor each time his team has won a championship, so there's no reason to expect a drop-off this year.
The good news for the Cavaliers is their No. 2 player should be ready to go when the Finals start. Kyrie Irving missed two games of the Eastern Conference Finals against Atlanta with a knee injury before returning to score 16 points over 22 minutes in Game 4.
Yet even with a healthy Irving, everything Cleveland does runs through James. He will be the one touching the ball every play, whether it's driving to the hoop or facilitating for others. The series rises and falls for the Cavaliers based on how well James plays.
History has constantly proven the best player on a championship team is going to win the MVP. James and Curry are the leaders for their respective clubs this year and have the inside track on the award even before a game is played.
Finals Prediction
With only two teams left playing, it's hard to find much of a return. The Cavaliers winning will provide nearly two dollars for every dollar spent, but the Warriors are going to cost you more than two dollars if they win a championship.
The Warriors are the betting favorite for a reason. In addition to having the NBA's best record (67-15) during the regular season, they were the most complete team by finishing first in defensive efficiency and second in offensive efficiency.
Using the small sample size prism of the playoffs, Cleveland has flipped that script by leading all postseason teams with an offensive efficiency of 108.6 (first) and defensive efficiency of 98.5 (third) after ranking 20th in the latter category during the regular season.
The postseason has done a good job of showing how a team can adjust on the fly. Cleveland has had to forge a new identity with a hobbled Irving and the loss of Kevin Love in the first round.
Zach Harper of CBS Sports noted the Cavaliers role players have proven to be better than anyone gave them credit for when the playoffs started;
"This is a much better and closer matchup than we thought it might be a couple weeks ago. The Cavaliers have proven their role players are capable of consistently showing up and their defense is capable of locking down good offenses that rely on movement, shooting, and passing. Couple that with LeBron James and his fantastic play-making as of late and the Cavs can put up an incredible fight for this trophy.
"
Yet even with the breakthrough efforts from Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova, the Cavs haven't gone up against a team as good as the Warriors in the playoffs. Boston only got in because the Eastern Conference is so bad. Chicago is a good team, though it gave up in Game 6. Atlanta didn't have Thabo Sefolosha at all in the playoffs and lost Kyle Korver in Game 2 of the conference finals.
Benjamin Hoffman of the New York Times noted one of the Warriors' strengths continues to be underrated because of all of the ways they can score:
"The Warriors are known for 3-pointers, but teams have quickly found out that a defensive core of Draymond Green, Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala and Thompson can be just as intimidating as the team's offense. Green had the best defensive season—he received more first-place awards in the voting for defensive player of the year than Kawhi Leonard of the San Antonio Spurs, who won it—and would seemingly be the person best suited to the task of covering James.
"
The Warriors went through a 55-win Memphis team and tenacious Houston group that won 56 games to earn a spot in the Finals. They are prepared for this moment and have been able to overcome doubts about being a jump-shooting team.
The Cavaliers and Warriors met twice in the regular season, with each team winning on its home floor. Following that simple logic, the Warriors have the home-court advantage because they have lost just three games (including the postseason) at home all year.
Golden State has been building to this moment since hiring Steve Kerr as head coach last summer, even if no one saw this breakout coming. The Warriors get four games at home, so the Cavaliers will have to steal one early to keep their title hopes alive.
As nice as the story of James winning a title with the Cavaliers would be, the Warriors are simply a better team and have gone through a more difficult path to get here. They will be celebrating a championship for the first time in 40 years.
Stats via ESPN.com
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