Belmont Stakes Contenders 2015: Analyzing Favorites for Triple Crown's Final Leg
Of all the Triple Crown races, the Belmont Stakes is the toughest to forecast. The grueling 1 1/2-mile distance is a challenge for any thoroughbred, much less one that is on a condensed racing schedule. Unlike other races like, say, the Breeders' Cup, not all horses are necessarily gearing up for this lone run, making unequal rest a huge factor.
Triple Crown hopeful American Pharoah is the only horse to have run both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before entering at Belmont, placing the field's best horse at a distinct disadvantage. With top challengers like Frosted and Materiality on five weeks rest after skipping Pimlico, the odds don't necessarily reflect how difficult it will be for Pharoah to beat out this small but talented field.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
One week out from race day, let's take the pulse of Belmont, highlighting the perception surrounding a trio of the race's top favorites.
| American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | 1-1 |
| Frosted | Kiaran McLaughlin | 5-1 |
| Materiality | Todd Pletcher | 15-2 |
| Mubtaahij | Mike de Kock | 14-1 |
| Carpe Diem | Todd Pletcher | 16-1 |
| Madefromlucky | Todd Pletcher | 22-1 |
| Keen Ice | Dale Romans | 25-1 |
| Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | 28-1 |
| Frammento | Nicholas Zito | 50-1 |
Favorites to Watch
The Favorite: Frosted
OK, so Pharoah is technically the favorite, both by the odds and public sentiment. But the 37-year Triple Crown drought is one of sport's most unbreakable records for a reason, and by any objective measure, Frosted probably holds the upper hand over the rest of the field.
That doesn't guarantee victory, of course. Kiaran McLaughlin's horse came in fourth at Churchill Downs behind a strong finishing kick and has been working at the New York race track for nearly a month now. In Frosted's most recent training run, Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch opined that the horse was the strongest he's ever looked:
""Frosted went with the older TAMARKUZ for the second straight week, breaking off a half-length in front while nearest the rail. The pair were well held through an opening quarter in 23.42 while kept three to four paths off the fence approaching and into the stretch. They both finished very willingly without being asked, Frosted holding off his partner while having plenty left at the wire. Tamarkuz, winner of this year's Godolphin Mile, came back and was a head in front after five furlongs in 1:00.25, although it was Frosted, back in front again when pulling up six panels in 1:14.80. This was the best I've seen of Frosted either prior to or since the Derby.
With jockey Joel Rosario, who saddled Tonalist to an upset of California Chrome last June, Frosted is in strong position to unseat Pharoah. Expect him to be among the freshest horses, allowing McLaughlin's horse to run like he did when he captured the Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes in April.
Most Overrated: American Pharoah
Regardless of what happens at Belmont, 2015 will always be Pharoah's year. Bob Baffert's horse won the first two legs on a pair of slow racing surfaces, and his whopping seven-length win at the Pimlico downpour might be the most memorable individual performance from this year's Triple Crown circuit.
Nevertheless, he's also the obvious choice for this dubious distinction. Not only is Pharoah the only horse running all three legs, as previously mentioned, but he's also facing significantly tougher competition than other recent Triple Crown hopefuls have endured:
And while Pharoah has beaten the race's top contenders head-to-head already, that doesn't necessarily mean much if he's fatigued. This year feels eerily reminiscent to 2003, when Funny Cide beat one of the Derby's top favorites, Empire Maker, at Churchill Downs and went on to capture the Preakness as well. However, Empire Maker skipped Pimlico and came into Belmont well-rested, capturing the Triple Crown's final leg as Funny Cide fell back to third.
Switch Frosted or Materiality in for Empire Maker and we have a similar storyline in 2015. Pharoah has closed both races well, but it would be remarkable if he could close the longest Triple Crown race with the same kick that he did at the Derby and Preakness.
Most Underrated: Madefromlucky
One of the really deep sleepers, not many are talking about Todd Pletcher's third horse. Indeed, the oddsmakers see Materiality and Carpe Diem as the Pletcher entries most likely to upset Pharoah, as only four horses face longer odds.
However, the son of Lookin' at Lucky has Triple Crown success in his blood, as Lucky won the Preakness in 2010. Though Madefromlucky has not raced in either of the first two legs, he captured the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park in his last race on May 9. After the race, Pletcher professed that his plan the entire time was to gear Madefromlucky up for the Belmont Stakes, per Bloodhorse's Claire Novak (via ESPN):
"The Belmont Stakes is something we'd talked about a while back. We felt Madefromlucky would keep going and going and going. We wanted to find out where he fit and the Peter Pan has historically been a good prep for the Belmont. He earned his way in if he comes out of this well and trains accordingly.
"
Madefromlucky's fourth-place finish at the Arkansas Derby might have put bettors off, especially considering that he lost by roughly nine lengths to American Pharoah. Now the playing field might be more level, though, and given his recent success at this very park, Pletcher's third horse is a worthy sleeper that could emerge as a surprise winner or top-three finisher.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
