2015 MLB Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions for Boom-or-Bust Baseball Prospects

A first-year player draft is by its very nature a boom-or-bust proposition. Teams head into draft night hoping to find their next foundational piece. Prospects hope they develop into the next Giancarlo Stanton or Clayton Kershaw and gain the salary boost along with it.

Baseball drafts miss more often than they hit—a stark contrast to those of the other three major sports. Only about 17 percent of players selected this month will ever make their MLB debuts. Two-thirds of prospects drafted in the first round eventually make it up, but merely making a team is not the same as starring. The hit rates are infinitely higher in the three other major sports, where a majority of top players are instantly thrown into the fire.

The 2015 MLB draft is unlikely to see any such talent. Defined more by its depth than top-level prospects, the hit rate for this draft will likely be lower than most. A majority of the so-called elite players would be late-top-10 selections or even go in the mid-teens in a more top-heavy class.

That said, there are still a few players who stand out as likely to become All-Stars or bust out entirely. Here's a quick look at some of those prospects heading into the draft. 

Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	School
1	Arizona Diamondbacks	Brendan Rodgers	SS	Lake Mary HS (FL)
2	Houston Astros	Dillon Tate	RHP	UC Santa Barbara
3	Colorado Rockies	Dansby Swanson	2B/SS	Vanderbilt
4	Texas Rangers	Alex Bregman	SS	LSU
5	Houston Astros	Kyle Tucker	OF	Plant HS (FL)
6	Minnesota Twins	Daz Cameron	OF	Eagle Landing HS (GA)
7	Boston Red Sox	Walker Buehler	RHP	Vanderbilt
8	Chicago White Sox	Tyler Jay	LHP	Illinois
9	Chicago Cubs	Carson Fulmer	RHP	Vanderbilt
10	Philadelphia Phillies	Jon Harris	RHP	Missouri State
11	Cincinnati Reds	Trenton Clark	OF	Richland HS (TX)
12	Miami Marlins	Mike Nikorak	RHP	Stroudsburg HS (PA)
13	Tampa Bay Rays	James Kaprielian	RHP	UCLA
14	Atlanta Braves	Tyler Stephenson	C	Kennesaw Mountain HS (GA)
15	Milwaukee Brewers	Kyle Funkhouser	RHP	Louisville
16	New York Yankees	Brady Aiken	LHP	IMG Academy
17	Cleveland Indians	Kolby Allard	LHP	San Clemente HS (CA)
18	San Francisco Giants	Phil Bickford	RHP	Southern Nevada JC
19	Pittsburgh Pirates	Kevin Newman	SS	Arizona
20	Oakland Athletics	Ian Happ	2B/OF	Cincinnati
21	Kansas City Royals	Cornelius Randolph	SS	Griffin HS (GA)
22	Detroit Tigers	Nathan Kirby	LHP	Virginia
23	St. Louis Cardinals	Michael Matuella	RHP	Duke
24	Los Angeles Dodgers	Chris Betts	C	Wilson HS (CA)
25	Baltimore Orioles	Garrett Whitley	OF	Niskayuna HS (NY)
26	Los Angeles Angels	Cody Ponce	RHP	Cal Poly Pomona
27	Colorado Rockies	D.J. Stewart	OF	Florida State
28	Atlanta Braves	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	Concordia Lutheran HS (TX)
29	Toronto Blue Jays	Ashe Russell	RHP	Cathedral HS (IN)
30	New York Yankees	Nick Plummer	OF	Brother Rice HS (MI)
31	San Francisco Giants	Andrew Benintendi	OF	Arkansas
32	Pittsburgh Pirates	Scott Kingery	2B	Arizona
33	Kansas City Royals	Dakota Chalmers	RHP	North Forsyth HS (GA)
34	Detroit Tigers	Donny Everett	RHP	Clarksville HS (TN)
35	Los Angeles Dodgers	Richie Martin	SS	Florida
36	Baltimore Orioles	Donnie Dewees	OF	North Florida

Boom-or-Bust Prospects

Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy

Brady Aiken is here for obvious reasons. He was the No. 1 overall pick in a far deeper and more top-heavy class last year before a contractual impasse pushed him back into the draft pool. One year and a Tommy John surgery later, no one's quite sure what to make of Aiken's draft stock.

The elite top-end talent that made the Houston Astros fall in love with him is there. He has solid command of his fastball and curve while boasting a changeup that can work as an occasional change of pace. With some seasoning, it's not hard to envision Aiken developing into a Cole Hamels-level anchor to a rotation. Tommy John surgeries are nowhere near as scary for teams as they once were, and Aiken doesn't even turn 19 until August.

That said, the risk here is inherent. For all the dismissiveness with which people treat Tommy John surgery nowadays, it's still a serious operation with a number of potential long-term consequences. That Aiken's arm has already broken down is a disconcerting sign. Plus, by the time he's healthy again, it'll have been nearly two full years since he's thrown extended innings.

There is also the subject of financial compensation. Aiken, after turning down $5 million from Houston last year, will undoubtedly look to recoup some of that value. That probably means going above slot value, which comes with its own inherent pitfalls. It'll take an organization with deep pockets and confidence in its medical staff to select Aiken.

Look for only the biggest of markets to be involved.

Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary HS

Fair or not, Brendan Rodgers will carry the distinction of being the consensus top prospect in this class. That will be a gift in the form of not only a multimillion dollar signing bonus but also a curse. As we've established, the truly elite prospects in this class are almost nonexistent. Rodgers rose to the top of the class almost by default; his good outweighs his bad to the point where everyone just kind of went "OK."

Rodgers is a good fielder who has a strong enough arm to stick at shortstop, something that means a lot more in grading prospects than it does on the field. Dansby Swanson, Kevin Bregman and Kevin Newman are each 50-50 propositions to stick at short—perhaps even lower. Barring an organizational decision down the line, Rodgers is a true shortstop.

Rodgers projects much closer to elite as a hitter, but it's going to take some time for him to learn big league pitching. How he makes that transition will be the difference between his being a .300/20-homer guy and a .275/10-homer guy, which matters a ton when judging a non-elite fielder.

Being the top pick, whether fair or not, comes with big-time expectations—even in years when the top of the class isn't laden with superstars.

Tyler Stephenson, C, Kennesaw Mountain HS

By the position's very nature, selecting a catcher is a high-risk proposition. The amount that teams are banking on players sticking at that position is disproportionate to the players' actual values. A catcher who can hit .250 and play some solid defense has real MLB value. A player who winds up being unable to stick behind the plate and still hits .250 might wind up a career minor leaguer.

All of that makes Tyler Stephenson, arguably this class' top catching prospect, an interesting player to watch. Stephenson is a big, powerful young man who could turn into a real middle-of-the-order threat. He's probably not going to be a great contact player, so the .250 batting average is more than an analogy in this scenario.

Stephenson is also pretty huge for a catcher at 6'4". There aren't many players that size who wind up translating to the catcher spot. He's a real candidate to move to a corner outfield spot as he develops—though it'd be smart for whichever team that selects him to give him an extended look behind the plate.

If Stephenson does move, it'll make his progression as a hitter all the more important.