Sizzling MLB Teams Destined to Cool Off Soon
Major League Baseball is a fickle sports league.
A long, grueling season allows for odd things to happen. Pretenders can camouflage themselves as contenders for weeks or even months at a time. The thin lines between greatness, mediocrity and downright incompetence can ebb and flow from series to series, game to game.
It's what makes baseball so amusing and confusing and frustrating from night to night.
Though we're nearly one-third of the way through the 2015 MLB season, some teams have gotten off to starts that still seem too good to be true.
By my count, there are at least five "sizzling" teams currently outpacing their projected win total for the remainder of this season. Though, in this case, a sizzling start might mean something a little different for each team on the list.
A club expected to finish well below .500 or near the bottom of the standings that is currently outperforming those expectations or riding a hot streak can be considered sizzling.
Conversely, legitimately good teams performing at high levels, but with inherent flaws, make this list on the basis that they should cool off in the near future, unless changes are made to address said deficiencies.
The basis for each team's inclusion will be touched upon more thoroughly in each slide, but each had to meet the prior criteria in some shape or form.
Let's get to it.
All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
For detailed links to any advanced FanGraphs statistics, click here.
Houston Astros
1 of 5
If the season ended today, the Houston Astros would be your American League pennant-winners.
That sentence would have gotten its writer derided and run off had it been written in similar form before the season began. Yet, 48 games into their season, the Astros are 30-18, six games ahead of the Mariners in the AL West and just ahead of the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins (both 28-18) for the AL's best record.
There's no denying that Houston is a good team and legitimate contender, but is it a 103-win team, as its current pace prior to today's 5-4 loss to the Orioles suggested?
The last team to win 103 games was the 2009 New York Yankees—a team that included three of the four highest-paid players in baseball and won the World Series.
These Astros are good, just not that good, as Grantland's Jonah Keri concluded:
"The extent to which the Astros have outperformed preseason expectations has led many pundits to predict major pullback as the season goes on. Beyond the sheer shock of what’s happened in Houston, there are reasons to agree with that stance: The Astros are 11-5 in one-run games (best in the American League) and 3-1 in extra-inning contests. Having a great bullpen can enable success in close games, but winning tight battles that often is rare, and that’s before we get into the fickle and volatile nature of relief pitchers. Houston has also been extraordinarily healthy, and that’s never a sure thing to last, especially on the pitching side.
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The Astros' rotation is a bit of a mess behind Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel.
The other great beard in Houston, Keuchel's sparkling numbers (6-1, 1.98 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 202 ERA+) might lead the rest of the Houston staff to eschew razors for a while too.
Collin McHugh (5-2, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) has been Houston's second-best pitcher this season, but he's struggled recently, while the rest of the staff all sport earned run averages over 4.77.
Recent call-up Lance McCullers has turned in two solid outings, but it would be unwise to expect the 21-year-old to maintain his current 2.53 ERA for the remainder of the season.
The bullpen (2.4 WAR, second in MLB) has provided an unexpected boost all season behind Luke Gregerson, Will Harris and Chad Quails, but Keri was correct in asserting that Houston can't possibly hope to continue pulling out every single close game, especially when so much relies on chance in such situations.
Offensively, Houston is an all-or-nothing team, the chips always all-in for the deep ball.
The Astros have seemingly become obsessed with the home run, to the extent that they covet moon shots (MLB-best 66 HR) so much that they sacrifice getting on base—Houston ranks 23rd in on-base percentage (.304), 28th in batting average (.233) and 29th in strikeout percentage (24.7 percent),
Houston's offensive strategy is like Gollum sacrificing his sanity for the power of the One Ring, though in this case it will be the powerful allure of home runs that does the Astros in.
Houston has proven itself a capable contender, a strong team with a certified ace and a band of mostly singles-averse sluggers. With the largest divisional lead in MLB, they'll stick around in contention, but their current pace is simply unsustainable with so many question marks.
Minnesota Twins
2 of 5
Sometimes, baseball just doesn't make sense.
The Twins haven't won more than 70 games in a season since 2010.
Minnesota's leader in runs batted in and batting average is 39-year-old Torii Hunter. Their two best pitchers to this point—Kyle Gibson (2.72 ERA this season, 4.49 career ERA) and Mike Pelfrey (2.77 ERA, 4.47 career ERA)—are both drastically outperforming expectations and have yet to stumble at times when most assumed they should.
Prior to the season, the Twins' projected No. 2 starter heading into the season, Ervin Santana, was suspended 80 games for performance-enhancing drug (PED) use.
Yet somehow, the Twins, with rookie manager Paul Molitor at the helm, are 28-18, tied with the Royals for the American League Central lead and just behind the equally surprising Astros for the best record in the AL.
May has been an especially kind time for baseball in the city of Minneapolis, evidenced by the Twins' AL-best 18-6 record.
The Twins don't do anything spectacularly, but they seem to thrive in pressure situations, per ESPN's David Schoenfield:
"Add it all up and if there's one word to describe the 2015 Twins, it's "clutch." Timely hits, timely relief pitching. FanGraphs keeps track of a stat they call BaseRuns -- the number of runs a team would be expected to score and allow given all the bases it has gained or allowed. Entering Monday, the Twins had outperformed their BaseRuns win total by seven -- 25 wins as opposed to the "expected" total of 18. No other teams in the majors was more than plus-4 (and the A's, with their terrible bullpen, were minus-9).
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Basically, the Twins win games more games than they should at a far higher rate than any other team. If the season were just 50 or 60 games long, this wouldn't be a serious concern for Minnesota, but with a 162-game schedule, trends like that have more than enough time to even out according to the law of averages.
Minnesota is a middling team stuck in a division with Kansas City, Detroit and the suddenly surging Cleveland Indians. Molitor simply doesn't have the necessary talent to compete with the likes of those squads.
The Twins are 16-15 against AL Central opponents, but just 5-10 overall against the Royals and Tigers.
Divisional strength and unsustainable success in the clutch are the key reasons FanGraphs has Minnesota finishing the season 53-64 over its remaining 114 games, which would put the Twins at 80-82 overall, placing them fourth in the AL Central should the other projections hold.
Now, maybe Hunter is a true solid golden oldie. Maybe Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe can keep the offense afloat. Maybe Phil Hughes rediscovers himself, Ervin Santana provides midseason relief and Gibson and Pelfrey don't revert to form.
Maybe. But that's far too much maybe to rely on over the course of 114 more games.
I expect the Twins to finish behind both Detroit and Kansas City while trying to keep alive in the wild-card race.
San Francisco Giants
3 of 5
Picking the defending champions to fall off might be foolish, but there are some legitimate holes in this San Francisco Giants team that makes me believe they will play the remainder of the season like more of a .500 team than a .583 team, which their current 28-20 record suggests they are.
FanGraphs projected the Giants to go 58-57 over their remaining 115 games prior to Wednesday's contest, a .503 winning percentage with just a plus-three expected run differential. That would still put the Giants on pace for 85 wins and a shot at snagging one of the two wild-card spots, though it would be a legitimate cooling off from this hot start.
San Francisco has been fantastic since a 17-18 start, but is that a result of the team finally melding together or just one of those odd in-season stretches of exemplary play?
The Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 games, a sample size which includes a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds and a three-game sweep of the National League West division-leading Dodgers in which they outscored their California rival 10-0.
This turnaround has coincided with the May 16 return of Hunter Pence, who has served as a catalyst for the Giants offense, but they still lackthose power bats that pitchers fear to trifle with.
The Giants are almost the bizarro Astros: They can get on base—third in the MLB in batting average (.274) and on-base percentage (.335), fifth in wOBA (.335)—but lack a true power threat, as they sit near the bottom of the league in home runs (36) and isolated power (.130).
The Giants are also missing a legitimate offensive threat at third base after losing Pablo Sandoval to the Boston Red Sox in free agency this offseason, something that has severely weakened an already power-starved lineup, per ESPN's David Schoenfield:
"[The Giants] Need to find a solution for third base. It's not Casey McGehee, hitting .190 with two home runs. I'm not sure it's Matt Duffy, who has had some clutch hits but is really more of a utility type. If you start Duffy on a regular basis, that's four guys in the lineup -- Duffy, Joe Panik, Angel Pagan and Nori Aoki -- without much power.
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McGehee has since been designated for assignment. While the offense has still held up well without a boomstick in the heart of the order, the pitching staff has been erratic aside from ace Madison Bumgarner (6-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.55 FIP).
Age finally seems to be catching up with 39-year-old Tim Hudson, while Chris Heston has a winning record even though his statistics indicate that's more the result of strong offensive backing and luck than dominant pitching performances.
Ryan Vogelsong (31.2 IP, four earned runs in May) appears to be getting back on track after a horrific start to the season, but relying on a 37-year-old with over 1,000 innings pitched is a bit of a precarious situation.
Then there's the enigma that is two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, currently sporting a 5-2 record with a 2.56 ERA. It seems too good to be true, and upon a deeper look into his statistics, it appears that this early success is no more than a convincing batch of California fool's gold, per SportingCharts' Pablo Figueroa:
"Tim Lincecum is practically the same guy that was terrible from 2012 to 2014. Looking at his ratios, he is posting career-worst numbers in K/9 (6.84) and BB/9 (4.10), leading to a FIP of 4.04 that is nearly 1.5 runs higher than his ERA. That discrepancy can be explained by a few numbers that tend to regress rapidly: a .259 BABIP allowed, and 83.1% men left on base. Even as Lincecum benefits from playing in a pitchers' park and in front of a great defense, this level of luck simply can't be sustained over a full season.
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There is a lot of talent to appreciate in San Francisco, and the Giants' track record is undeniable, but with the mounting evidence, it seems foolish to believe this is truly a team that can continue on a 94-win pace.
Regression is likely, which means a battle for a wild-card spot rather than an NL West title.
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New York Mets
4 of 5
The New York Mets are a bit of an outlier in regard to this list, as they've already cooled considerably following a 15-5 start, which included an 11-game winning streak.
Even after coming back to Earth and losing their grip on the division to the Washington Nationals, the Mets are 27-21 (19-9 in division), just 1.5 games back of Washington for the NL East lead.
On the surface, it doesn't appear there's much to worry about, but the Mets are not without serious flaws.
For one, they can't win away from Citi Field at all. New York's 7-15 mark on the road is second worst in the entire NL, ahead of only the lowly Philadelphia Phillies. They've also found the going difficult against teams over .500, posting a 6-15 record, which stands above only (again) Philadelphia's.
At this point in the season, the Mets have their obvious advantages and inherent limitations.
The pitching staff is one of the best in all of baseball. Even after Tommy John surgery deprived New York of Zack Wheeler and various ailments to Vic Black, Jerry Blevins, Rafael Montero and Bobby Parnell sapped them of bullpen depth, the Mets still rank fifth among all teams in total pitching wins above replacement.
New York has two aces in Matt Harvey (2.91 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.08 FIP) and Jacob deGrom (2.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.09 FIP), while 22-year-old Noah Syndergaard (2.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.03 K/9) possesses the stuff necessary to become the third head of baseball's most feared pitching Hydra.
The bullpen, led by fireballer Jeurys Familia (14 SV, 1.54 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 10.8 K/9) has been just as spectacular, posting the fourth-lowest FIP and fifth-lowest ERA among all MLB teams.
There are some alarming trends happening near the back of the rotation, however. Bartolo Colon might be the most fun man to watch on a baseball diamond, but after an incredible start to the season, the 42-year-old has (understandably) shown signs of slowing down.
He still possesses a preposterous 52-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he's allowed 20 earned runs and 32 baserunners over his last 21.1 innings pitched, which has caused his ERA to swell to 4.82.
Jonathon Niese is enduring a similar stretch of adversity, having allowed 16 earned runs and 24 hits over his last three starts.
Even with back-of-the-rotation struggles, the true cause for concern here is the offense, which can seesaw between average and anemic on a nightly basis.
Most disturbingly, the Mets' captain and all-around most important player, David Wright, has played in just eight games all season. He was recently diagnosed with spinal stenosis, though the true severity of the ailment and how long Wright will remain out for are still largely unknown.
USA Today's Ted Berg posited that a trade for some offensive help, especially considering the Mets' pitching depth, would make sense, though it seems unlikely at this point:
"GM Sandy Alderson said Monday that the club has no indication that Wright’s ailment will be a long-term problem or that it cannot be managed, but the combination of the uncertainty surrounding the third baseman’s condition, the club’s offensive struggles and its wealth of starting pitching make the solution seem almost too obvious: Trade an arm for a bat to bolster production in Wright’s absence.
But Alderson suggested that difference-making offensive players are rarely made available in trade this early in the season, leaving open the possibility of a deal later in the summer.
“We continue to canvas what may be available to us,” he said. “But realistically, we have to get the job done with what we have — at least in the near term.”
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What they currently have isn't much beyond Lucas Duda.
Travis d'Arnaud is on his way back from injury and Wilmer Flores has been picking up some slack offensively, but Michael Cuddyer, Curtis Granderson and Juan Lagares have provided little offensive relief.
The Mets rank 27th in batting average (.236) and wOBA (.291), and have hit just 37 home runs on the year. There isn't much hope for the power to break through beyond Duda other than through a trade that brings in a middle-of-the-order bat.
FanGraphs projects the Mets to finish 84-78, which would place them behind the Cubs, Pirates and Giants in the NL Wild Card race.
The pitching will be enough to keep them in contention for the remainder of the season, but if the offense can't be salvaged, this season will be remembered as just another in a long line of Mets disappointments.
Texas Rangers
5 of 5
The Rangers are 23-24 after their first 47 games. They aren't exactly tearing through the baseball world, but following a 67-95 season and the loss of ace Yu Darvish for the entire season, this is all highly unexpected.
Texas is 8-2 over its last 10 games, propelled back to the .500 mark for one day following a seven-game win streak during a nine-game road trip.
FanGraphs' projection system—which puts the Rangers at 77-85 with a minus-43 run differential when all is said and done—isn't buying the sudden surge to .500, and neither am I.
That's not to say this team doesn't have talent; most of it just happens to be on the offensive end.
It all starts with the biggest, baddest Prince in the world. Prince Fielder, finally healthy, has resurrected his status as one of the most feared men on the planet with a baseball bat in hand.
Fielder currently leads MLB in batting average (.368) and runs batted in (38), while ranking in the top 10 in home runs (10), slugging (.538) and OPS (1.008).
“He's putting us on his back and carrying us,” first baseman Mitch Moreland told Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News following the Rangers' seventh consecutive win.
His back has felt a little lighter lately, though, as his Rangers have been getting in on Prince's party.
Moreland, Shin-Soo Choo and Adrian Beltre have picked up their offense, while the addition of former MVP Josh Hamilton could provide some extra power.
Hamilton enters in what is essentially a low-pressure situation for a team that wasn't expected to make a postseason run, per MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince:
"So Hamilton joined this club Monday in a no-pressure spot. If his bat speed and selectivity are not quite where they ought to be, he should have ample time to work through those issues without bringing down the rest of the lineup with him. The Rangers haven't gotten much production out of left field, on measure, but Hamilton arrived just as Delino DeShields Jr. had begun to assert himself atop the order. So now manager Jeff Banister has difficult daily decisions to make among Hamilton, DeShields and Leonys Martin in his outfield, and those are the kinds of difficulties managers welcome.
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CBS Sports' Matt Snyder recently jumped the Rangers all the way up to No. 11 in his latest MLB Power Rankings, though it came with a bit of a caveat: "I'm still not even close to bullish on the team due to the rotation—thanks to injury—but they're worth a look."
His statement holds true when examining the Rangers' rotational woes.
Texas' best pitcher, by far, has been 24-year-old Nick Martinez. He holds an unblemished 4-0 record in nine starts with a 1.96 ERA—third best among all qualified AL starters.
Numbers can be deceiving, though. Martinez carries a bloated 4.01 FIP, indicating his ERA is largely the product of timely defense and some luck, rather than top-of-the-line skill.
Behind Martinez is a disappointing "No. 1" in Yovani Gallardo and two decent middle-rotation pitchers in 35-year-old Colby Lewis and 36-year-old Wandy Rodriguez.
It's difficult to depend on a weathered, injured starting rotation that ranks in the bottom third of ERA, FIP, home runs allowed, strikeouts per nine and nearly every other major statistical pitching category one could list.
The bullpen, with Shawn Tolleson stepping in for the injured Neftali Feliz, actually performed well during the recent winning streak, but with such a precarious starting pitching situation, the Rangers are unlikely to get them the ball with the game on the line.
Fielder is a joy to watch, and the entire baseball world is hoping for Hamilton's return to glory, but there just isn't enough here to make one think the Rangers can hover around .500 for the remainder of the season.
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