NBA Draft 2015: 1st-Round Mock Draft, Key Storylines to Watch
The NBA draft is unique because it comes before free agency begins, allowing teams to supplement their roster with young talent before trying to add more players. That can have a profound impact on the way a team does business.
For example, last April during the NCAA tournament, LeBron James made his feelings about Connecticut point guard Shabazz Napier clear on Twitter by saying there is "no way" a team takes another point guard in the lottery.
With James entering free agency, the Miami Heat traded up to acquire Napier. It wound up not making a difference for James when deciding where to sign, but it's hard to imagine Pat Riley wasn't trying to appease the former NBA MVP.
Teams have less than one month to make their final draft decisions, but the planning has certainly intensified with the postseason nearly over and big questions looming for many. Here are the storylines to follow, as well as a mock draft showing how things will shake out June 25.
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State |
| 4 | New York Knicks | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Myles Turner, PF, Texas |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Delon Wright, PG, Utah |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Pat Connaughton, SF, Notre Dame |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Cliff Alexander, F, Kansas |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV |
The Drama at No. 4
The consensus around this draft is that Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor and D'Angelo Russell will be the first three players taken. It just becomes a matter of preference, particularly with the top two. Jonathan Givony of Draft Express (via Yahoo Sports) believes Towns fits Minnesota's needs better:
"While Jahlil Okafor will certainly be attractive to Flip Saunders' style of play, the Timberwolves ranked as the worst defensive team in the NBA last year and could desperately use the rim protection ability of Karl Towns. Additionally, Andrew Wiggins saw the biggest share of his offense in post-up situations last year, while Ricky Rubio is a complete non-shooter, which indicates that the floor spacing Towns could provide might be more valuable to the T'wolves than Okafor's back-to-the-basket game.
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Derek Bodner of USA Today has Okafor going to the Timberwolves based on his reading of the post-lottery tea leaves:
"Towns has been the top rated prospect on most teams' draft boards for quite some time, but Minnesota winning the lottery has cast doubt on that. This is far from set in stone, but more and more indications are starting to point to Okafor being a very serious possibility here for Flip Saunders.
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Both mocks have Russell going to Philadelphia at No. 3, leaving the drama to start with the New York Knicks at No. 4. Even that doesn't seem to present much mystery, as both mocks have Emmanuel Mudiay going in that spot.
However, unlike the top three players who have a track record in front of mass American audiences, Mudiay is an unknown quantity. He was the No. 1 overall recruit in the country, according to 247Sports, last year ahead of the three players who are expected to be taken ahead of him.
Mudiay was set to attend SMU last year before concerns about whether he would be immediately eligible, and he wound up playing in China. That did limit the number of looks pro scouts could get at him in game action, not to mention an ankle injury he suffered in December that kept him off the court.
Chris Daniels, who played with Mudiay in China last season, told ESPN's Jeff Goodman that Mudiay is a tireless worker:
"He takes 200 shots after every practice and his shot is coming along. It's much further along than when he first got here a couple months ago. It takes time for most guys to develop that part of their game. There just aren't many Ray Allens and J.J. Redicks. It's going to come because his work ethic is crazy. He's relentless.
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The Knicks, who were certainly hoping to get one of the top two picks, have to nail this draft selection. Their fanbase is frustrated and angry, and marquee free agents not named Carmelo Anthony have shunned the franchise because the front office has shown no indication of being able to build a winning roster.
Mudiay seems to be the kind of player who can turn into a star. He's a project who will need time to develop, so Knicks fans shouldn't expect instant results. As long as the 19-year-old holds his own without getting hurt as a rookie, that's a huge step forward for the Knicks roster during this rebuilding process.
Teams Controlling the Draft
There are three teams that jump out as having a lot of power in this year's draft. Minnesota is the starting point by virtue of having the top pick, as well as picking 31st and 36th in the second round, to get the ball rolling.
After the Timberwolves, the 76ers are as unpredictable as any team in the NBA. They seem locked on Russell with the third pick, as Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer quoted one league executive who said at the end of April that the Ohio State star is who the front office was focused on:
"He's the guy they want," the executive said. "That's the word around the league. You know the Sixers. They won't come out and say it, but he's the guy they want."
Even if that's the case, the 76ers are primed to make something else happen. Because of all of the front office's deals, they own five picks in the second round, including two at 35 and 37. Eventually all of these hoarded picks have to be used for something.
Philadelphia got a solid rookie campaign from Nerlens Noel and should add Joel Embiid to the rotation, along with the No. 3 pick. There's talent coming for the 76ers, though it's all young and in need of significant development.
Being able to take some of those second-round picks to possibly move up into the late first-round mix would add one more talent to a promising roster that will certainly be worth watching, even if the record doesn't show it right away.
Los Angeles' Plan
The other team to watch is one that should be building through the draft but doesn't seem inclined to go all in on that path: the Lakers. They should keep their top pick (No. 2 overall) and take whichever center doesn't go to Minnesota.
After that, it appears anything is in play. General manager Mitch Kupchak said during an appearance on Bleacher Report Radio (h/t B/R's Howard Beck) that the Lakers "don't have time" for a full rebuild:
Kupchak could easily be talking about himself as the Lakers, since Jim and Jeanie Buss may not have a lot of patience with the current regime that's produced 48 wins over the past two seasons.
The good news is Kupchak has wiggle room, owning an extra first-round pick at No. 27 and the 34th pick to deal if he wants to tempt teams with a trade. He also has the ability to dabble in free agency with just $37 million in contract commitments for next season, per HoopsHype.
Free agency will be an interesting test for the Lakers this offseason, as it produced no positive results last year and Kobe Bryant didn't exactly inspire confidence with his play before suffering another season-ending injury.
Julius Randle's return, combined with the No. 2 overall pick, does give Kupchak two young impact players to build the roster around. His words do make it hard to figure out exactly what's going on in Los Angeles, though at least it adds extra drama to what can happen in the draft before free agency.
