Ranking the 10 Most Indispensable Players for 2015 MLB Contenders
No MLB team wants to imagine life without a cherished superstar.
The next-man-up motto has run its way into the Hall of Fame of sports cliches, but some players are simply too valuable to live without. Just ask the Milwaukee Brewers, who are close to throwing in the towel with Jonathan Lucroy sidelined. Or the New York Yankees, whose starting rotation badly needs Masahiro Tanaka to come back and stay healthy for the long haul.
Were anything to happen to any of these players, the affected franchise would be in major trouble.
Before diving in, let's establish some important ground rules. This is not a list of baseball's top 10 players, nor is it an MVP ballot for 2015's best performers. While current production is weighted heavily, a couple of slow-starting superstars occupy the list on the strength of past brilliance.
Also, each team was limited to one choice to spread the wealth. Most elite squads wield more than one irreplaceable stalwart, but there's not enough room or time to highlight everyone.
And take note of the "contender" part of the headline. Sorry, Paul Goldschmidt.
Honorable Mentions
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Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals
Joining a supposedly stout Washington Nationals rotation, only Max Scherzer has held his end of the bargain so far. Flashing a 1.67 ERA through nine starts, the newcomer is the early National League Cy Young favorite.
Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
The fact that a 2.19 ERA draws little fanfare says all that needs to be said about the dependably spectacular Felix Hernandez.
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
With Pablo Sandoval gone and Hunter Pence just recently returning from the shelf, Buster Posey held down the fort with exceptional offense from behind the plate.
Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Everyone technically remains a contender inside the up-for-grabs American League East. Adam Jones still doesn't walk, but impatience doesn't hurt as much from someone hitting .321 with a strikeout rate slashed to 11.4 percent.
Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Everyone counted the Tampa Bay Rays out, but their patchwork roster grips a slight AL East lead. Young aces Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi deserve much of the credit, but the lineup would look a lot more desolate without franchise cornerstone Evan Longoria manning the hot corner.
10. Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets
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Following a resounding 13-3 start, the New York Mets are grasping for breath. Their National League East lead quickly evaporated, and now they're back in second place at 24-21. On Saturday, they received a huge blow with another David Wright setback.
The All-Star third baseman was shut down for the second time in two weeks, this time backed by a frightening diagnosis.
"They thought it would be gone by now, but the fact [is] he is still feeling something," assistant general manager John Ricco told the New York Daily News' Kristie Ackert. "I think the initial diagnosis was stenosis, which is a narrowing of his spinal column, not anything structural. At this point he should be feeling pain-free for the most part and he is not."
A more serious case of stenosis ended Lenny Dykstra's career, so this is disheartening news for Wright and the Mets, who were finally in line to make a playoff push. Now their offense, averaging 3.4 runs per game, continues to sink.
With Captain America's shield nowhere to be seen, the Dark Knight needs to save the city. Even after getting shelled for seven runs on Saturday, Matt Harvey owns a 2.91 ERA with a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Barring a massive trade or Eric Campbell developing superpowers, phenomenal pitching is the only way New York can snap an eight-year playoff absence by sneaking into the wild card. Harvey needs to stay healthy and in ace form to give the Mets a fighting chance.
9. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
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There are better pitchers than Madison Bumgarner off this list, but last year's postseason hero remains integral to the San Francisco Giants halting the even-odd trend and returning to the playoffs.
A beacon of consistency since joining San Francisco in 2009, the big southpaw owns a 3.05 career ERA, never steering above 3.37. After hurling 270 innings last year, he looks just fine with a 2.84 ERA and 5.20 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Starting pitching has been the hallmark of San Francisco's three titles, but its starting rotation would be a mess without Bumgarner. The starting unit sports a 3.91 ERA and 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings after Tim Hudson was shelled on Sunday.
Tim Lincecum's full-scale resurgence should net skepticism, as he holds the lowest strikeout rate (6.80 K/9) of his career with 3.97 walks per nine innings and a 4.41 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Bumgarner is the unquestioned ace, and there's no steady sidekick behind him unless Chris Heston continues to flourish.
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8. Nelson Cruz, OF/DH, Seattle Mariners
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Nelson Cruz has showed everyone where they can stick their regression.
When an oft-injured 33-year-old slugger breaks out and bolts to a bigger ballpark, a plunge down to earth typically follows. Not for Cruz, who is once again leading baseball with 17 dingers. As scary as it sounds, he has actually improved upon last year's 40-homer campaign, even if an unsustainable .374 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is the main reason why.
When his .343 batting average fades, Cruz will still remain one of the league's fiercest sluggers. With Robinson Cano marred in a slump and Kyle Seager producing below career norms, the Seattle Mariners don't have any more of those at the moment.
They're among the leaders in home runs due to Cruz's exploits, but they're also hitting .239 with a .297 on-base percentage. Entering the season with World Series hopes, the Mariners are 20-23 in spite of Cruz terrorizing opposing pitchers. Just imagine how much trouble they'd be in without him.
7. Matt Carpenter, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
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Matt Carpenter doesn't carry the star notoriety of his slideshow peers, but make no mistake, he is one. Since seizing a starting gig in 2013, the St. Louis Cardinals infielder ranks sixth in WAR among position players.
At first, 2013's breakout seemed to be a career outlier. A quarter through 2015, it's now possible last year's regression was the fluke. Not only is Carpenter hitting .323, he's brandishing enhanced power with a .595 slugging percentage.
With the help of a 42.7 fly-ball percentage, he has already matched last season's eight home runs. He also remains a doubles machine, tying Adrian Gonzalez with an MLB-leading 17.
A Cardinals team once led by Albert Pujols now flaunts Carpenter as the face of its first-place franchise. If his power proves more than a flash in the pan, the 29-year-old will frequent the list of top MVP candidates.
6. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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As Andrew McCutchen picks up steam, so do the Pittsburgh Pirates. The former MVP exited April hitting .194/.302/.333, and the Buccos don't possess the offensive firepower to mitigate such an uncharacteristic blip.
With a few days to spare in May, he has repaired his slash line to .261/.359/.464. Considering he hit over .300, reached base at a .400 clip or higher and slugged above .500 in each of the last three years, the 28-year-old earned the benefit of the doubt after a shaky month.
Now he's making up for lost time. At 21-22 with a plus-26 run differential, the Pirates remain alive in the National League's wide-open wild-card race. Yet an offense ranked near the bottom of weighted runs created plus must improve, and that starts with their superstar.
Don't let a bad start diminish McCutchen's significance. Since 2012, only Mike Trout has generated a higher WAR. Homering in three of his last four games, he's back to normal.
5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
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Many songs have already been woven in honor of the Chicago Cubs' legendary batch of incoming position players. Yet the pitching has shined more nearly two months into the season.
The pitching staff has registered the National League's best strikeout-minus-walks percentage behind stellar starts from Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel. It's a young, developing lineup limiting Chicago's immediate potential.
Luckily for the Cubs, Anthony Rizzo has morphed into a legitimate MVP contender. The 25-year-old is hitting .316/.440/.574 with eight homers and generating more walks (24) than strikeouts (21). Heck, he has even poached a career-high nine bases.
Jorge Soler, Addison Russell and even Kris Bryant all have significant room for growth during their rookie campaigns. Rizzo, on the other hand, is entering peak form in his age-25 season. If the pitching continues to exceed expectations, his superstar bat establishes the Cubs as one of the most dangerous wild-card candidates.
4. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Clayton Kershaw is fine. The world is far too scary a place to waste time worrying about baseball's best pitcher.
Let's cover up Kershaw's 4.23 ERA for a moment to see if anything else causes concern. Through 58.1 innings, he has compiled 73 strikeouts and 16 walks, so nothing is wrong there. While his 2.88 FIP is way above last year's historic 1.81 rate, it still places No. 14 among qualified starters.
So what's going wrong? Twenty percent of his fly balls have cleared the fence, and the ace carries a 6.9 home run-fly ball percentage over his decorated career. While his .343 BABIP is far too high, his 65.6 percent strand rate is far too low.
Expected to boast one of baseball's best rotations, the Los Angeles Dodgers are suddenly thin on starters. With Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu both injured, the pressure is on to win when Kershaw and Zack Greinke take the mound.
The Dodgers have already dropped five of Kershaw's nine starts, scoring a combined six runs during the defeats. He can't do anything about the poor run support, but the three-time Cy Young winner will rebound. After getting swept by San Francisco, Los Angeles has no wiggle room atop the National League West.
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
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The offseason spent fretting Miguel Cabrera's oncoming decline feels so far away. The superstar slugger quickly smashed those worries, resembling peak form at .344/.446/.613.
Last year, his 25 homers and 8.8 walk percentage represented his worst outputs since his 2003 rookie campaign. This year? He has already clubbed 11 long balls while boasting a 15.4 walk rate. At age 32, he still deserves recognition as this generation's greatest hitter.
To be fair, fearing regression wasn't outlandish. Just look at Victor Martinez, who was sent to the disabled list with a .270 slugging percentage a year after hitting .335 with 32 homers. Although the Detroit Tigers have remained an offensive powerhouse despite his sudden downturn, they can't expect Anthony Gose and Jose Iglesias to keep hitting over their heads.
Yoenis Cespedes, J.D. Martinez and Ian Kinsler offer above-average support, but the Tigers no longer garnish a dominant pitching staff. Their offense needs to rake to fend off the soaring Kansas City Royals and recovering Cleveland Indians, and it all starts with Cabrera.
2. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
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Those reading this during a Washington Nationals game probably missed another Bryce Harper homer.
The 22-year-old is on a tear for the ages, clobbering 11 homers during his last 16 games. Making fools of peers who labeled him overrated, Harper is hitting an unfathomable .333/.471/.728 with 16 long balls and an MLB-best 3.4 WAR.
Harper's 20.9 walk percentage is also the best among qualified starters, making him the complete package well worthy of the lofty hype. His breakout couldn't have come at a better time for Washington, either.
Anthony Rendon has yet to play this year. Jayson Werth quickly found himself back on the disabled list, and fellow No. 1 pick Stephen Strasburg is unraveling. Throw in subpar defense—looking at you, Ian Desmond—and the projected juggernaut has needed every bit of Harper's unworldly offense.
Just like that, the Harper-Trout debate that quickly fizzled three years ago is once again fair game.
1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
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What baseball-related top-anything list doesn't end with Mike Trout?
The defending MVP is in danger of not owning MLB's highest WAR for the first time in his career, trailing Harper. Yet he continues to do Trout things, batting .301/.392/.552 with 11 homers, eight steals and a 2.8 WAR.
Even with the game's brightest superstar on board, the Los Angeles Angels possess the second-worst on-base percentage behind the Milwaukee Brewers. Last year's premier offense displayed a pulse during Friday night's 12-run outburst, but a previously feared lineup is now fighting to become average.
Despite their slow start, the Angels are right in the mix at 22-22. Pitching has kept the Angels afloat, but the rotation remains questionable after Garrett Richards. For them to return to the postseason, they need Trout leading the way with another MVP-caliber season.
Looking back at 2012 and 2013, even that may not prove enough.
Note: Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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