French Open 2015: Analysing Novak Djokovic's Draw

Everything has changed and nothing has changed. Ahead of the 2015 French Open, there is, as usual, an overwhelming favourite. He's just not the usual candidate at this time of year.

Analysing Novak Djokovic's draw in Paris might carry with it a degree of the inevitable; anyone who doesn't expect the Serb to at least make the final on June 7 must know something we don't.

Djokovic will face Jarkko Nieminen in his first round, but beyond that his opponents are anyone's guess.

In this slideshow we will predict and analyse the world No. 1's potential route to the final. 

First and Second Rounds

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Jarkko Nieminen, are you ready to become a household name this week?

If he is, he'll need to not only have compiled a dossier on the scale of a final-year dissertation on Djokovic but have the gusto to execute it.

The Finn has only met Djokovic five times but does have a win against the game's most dominant player. However, the win came in a Sydney semi-final six years ago, before Djokovic was at his ruthless and relentless best.

Nieminen hasn't won a set against him in the two matches since. Tom Allnutt reported in the Daily Mail Djokovic as saying that he arrives with "a purpose, with a reason."

The need, then, becomes greater for Nieminen to plot meticulously his method against Djokovic. The first round should be easily negotiated.

Djokovic may face Gilles Muller in the second round. The man from Luxembourg must beat Paolo Lorenzi of Italy to earn the right to try and overturn his 0-1 record against Djokovic.

That defeat came earlier in the year at the Australian Open. Muller couldn't bamboozle Djokovic as an unknown quantity then and probably won't be able to now.

Third and Fourth Rounds

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There is always a degree of danger in predicting the way a tournament will unfold. However, let's assume Bernard Tomic will have enough to see off No. 103-ranked Luca Vanni.

The Australian may also have to fend off his fellow countryman Thanasi Kokkinakis before getting a shot in against Djokovic.

Tomic first met Djokovic in a thriller at Wimbledon, with Tomic taking the second set 3-6 back in 2011. Djokovic eventually overcame his opponent, and in two meetings since, he hasn't lost a set. 

Tomic has gone out in the first round in his last four tournaments, including a Madrid defeat to Vanni. Perhaps we're being optimistic expecting him to make it past the first hurdle.

In the fourth round, Djokovic, assuming he is still involved, is likely to face either Richard Gasquet or Kevin Anderson.

Given Anderson's win over Gasquet in the year's first Grand Slam, we'll opt for the South African to make it to this stage of the tournament.

However, he might wish we hadn't. Anderson hasn't won a set against Djokovic in the last four meetings. His huge serve dwarfs any chance he has of winning this particular tie.

Quarter-Final

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It's the tie everyone is waiting for. It will be the greatest player at Roland Garros against the greatest player never to have won at Roland Garros. 

You wouldn't be wrong to be a little cautious about vehemently backing one over the other. Rafa Nadal is not playing like a nine-time winner of this prestigious tournament. But the French Open is still indisputably his domain.

If he is to win, you sense he will need to beat Djokovic. Simon Briggs wrote for the Telegraph that Nadal's nearest challengers have caused him to become "racked with nervous tension." It's a feeling that will need to subside.

Then you have Djokovic, who has yet to beat Nadal in the year's second Slam. Yet his four straight titles render most arguments against him futile.

It is fitting that the first meeting between the two was in this tournament and that the meeting that could go some way to defining the pair's future will be here, too.

Either Nadal will win and prove the dissenters wrong, or Djokovic will show that the resistance to him on clay is no more.

If the stars should align to make this match a reality, the outcome, whatever its nature, will be significant.

Semi-Final

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Marriage may work for Andy Murray, but it probably won't be enough on its own to help him get the better of Novak Djokovic.

Given Murray's stunning form, including back-to-back clay titles, there will be few strong enough to prevent him reaching a second consecutive semi-final at Roland Garros.

Three wins against Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori and Rafa Nadal sent him to one of the best victories of his career in Madrid. He now knows he can compete on clay, putting to bed a long-standing flaw.

Djokovic is, though, responsible for three of Murray's five defeats this year. 

Murray will need an as-yet-undiscovered panacea to cure the Djokovic blues that have afflicted him to win his first French Open.

That much seems clear. Momentum and matrimony may yet prove the ideal formula.

Final

Alessandra Tarantino/Associated Press

Roger Federer's routine win over Alejandro Falla in the first round in Paris has set him on a path toward a clash of the game's immovable forces.

The 17-time Slam winner has forced journalists across the world to rethink their premature eulogies to tennis' "Mr. Finesse."

While defeats like the one to Nick Kyrgios in Madrid inspire the aforementioned scribes to sharpen their pens, Federer normally bounces back.

After defeat to Djokovic in the Rome final, Federer will be more determined than ever to prove he can still win the events that matter.

Without a Slam since 2012, he will be determined to prove that he still matters.

Losing to Kyrgios showed the sport has depth. However, the Australian would do well to gain the status that Federer and Djokovic enjoy, making this such a mouthwatering proposition.

Of course, there is much tennis to be played before we can contemplate this classic final.