French Open 2015: Analyzing Rafael Nadal's Draw
Arduous. There's no other way to describe Rafael Nadal's French Open draw.
To lift his 10th crown in Paris, the King of Clay will be tested like never before. The question is whether the familiar surroundings of Court Philippe Chatrier can still imbue him with his old magic.
It's odd to look at Nadal's name and see a No. 6 next to it. But that's the defending champion's seed thanks to a rough start (by his lofty standards) to 2015. He dug himself into a hole, losing five matches already on clay this season. And his punishment? A potential quarterfinal meeting with a hungry and dominant Novak Djokovic.
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Let the drama begin.
Just reaching that blockbuster clash with Djokovic won't be easy. His path there could be paved by a few tricky opponents eager to further chip away at the Spaniard's aura.
First up: 18-year-old Quentin Halys. Despite all his recent struggles, Nadal should have no trouble outmuscling the inexperienced No. 304th-ranked player. Expect a quick three-set workout for the defending champion.
The second round is where things become tougher. Nadal will face the winner of the Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Nicolas Almagro match, and both men are capable of giving any opponent fits. Dolgopolov, possibly the most unpredictable and unique player on tour, brings a game that's tough to decipher.
Almagro, a three-time French Open quarterfinalist, is likely to get through that match and set up a battle with his countryman. Though Almagro pushed Djokovic in Rome and boasts a huge forehand, Nadal owns a 12-1 edge in their rivalry, including straight-sets wins in Miami and Barcelona this year.
Driven to prove the naysayers wrong, Nadal should grind his way into the third round, where the highest-ranked player he could meet is No. 30 Adrian Mannarino. The Frenchman hasn't exactly been at home in Paris, and he's yet to advance past the second round here. A duel with Nadal should go the Spaniard's way.
Beyond that point is where his draw really heats up. In the fourth round, potential foes include No. 10 seed Grigor Dimitrov, wily veteran Tommy Robredo or rising stars Jack Sock and Borna Coric. Though Dimitrov is the most talented of that group, he's endured an inconsistent 2015 campaign, which includes a recent straight-sets loss to Nadal in Madrid.
Keep an eye on Robredo. The 33-year-old may not have the most sterling results lately, but he's reached five quarterfinals at Roland Garros and remains one of the toughest competitors in the world. However, Nadal shouldn't be seriously bothered by Robredo, Dimitrov or any of the youngsters. No, the real test lies in the next round.
Should Nadal advance, he'll likely face his nemesis, Djokovic, in the most anticipated quarterfinal in Grand Slam history.
Watching those two square off for the 44th time in their legendary rivalry would be the highlight of the tournament. It might also be the de facto championship match.
For Djokovic, conquering the French Open has been the ultimate mission the last few years. A title here would finally award him a career Grand Slam. Based off his 35-2 record this season and active 22-match win steak, he's the man to beat.
If he can get by Nadal.
The two have battled three straight years in Paris, with Nadal claiming the 2012 and 2014 finals, as well as their epic 2013 semifinal. Overall, Nadal is 6-0 against Djokovic at Roland Garros. That mark should prove a key psychological boost.
At the moment, Djokovic is playing tennis as well as anyone in history. Yet he's never beaten Nadal at this event. Only one man has ever done that (Robin Soderling in 2009), which still remains his sole loss in a best-of-five sets match on clay.
Beating Nadal in three sets is difficult enough. Surviving his fury over five sets is another story entirely. How Djokovic keeps his composure in that situation will define not only this year's French Open but possibly both of their legacies.
There will be no respite for Nadal if he manages to topple Djokovic's quest for the title. In the semifinals, Andy Murray could await. And their recent clash for the Madrid championship must still be fresh in Nadal's mind.
Murray clobbered an uncharacteristically sloppy Nadal that match, bludgeoning him from the baseline. Not exactly known for his results on clay entering this spring, Murray looked like the more comfortable player that day.
Working in Nadal's favor, however, should be the fact he's dominated Murray both times (2011, 2014) they've faced off at Roland Garros. While the Scot may have the momentum because of his titles in Munich and Madrid, Nadal has the pedigree here that no one can match. Give him the advantage should they meet.
A spot in another French Open final would represent a remarkable achievement for Nadal given his recent slump. There, he could face fellow top-10 players Kei Nishikori or Tomas Berdych. But the most tantalizing matchup would come against Roger Federer.
They've been an inseparable pair at Roland Garros, contesting one another in the 2005 semifinal and four separate finals (2006-2008, 2011). Each tilt went in Nadal's favor, no matter what new tactic Federer threw at him. The Swiss' inability to overcome that hurdle here is a large reason why he trails 23-10 in their head-to-head record.
Federer vs. Nadal may not hold the same prestige it once did, but it would still present an extraordinary title match between two aging champions.
But looking past the quarterfinals will be a moot point if Nadal can't quickly rediscover his best form. The way he's played the last few months just won't cut it against the rest of the Big Four.
Besides finding consistency and depth with his groundstrokes again, he needs confidence more than anything. Belief in one's self can only be earned, not manufactured. Luckily for Nadal, his 66-1 record at the French Open is the ultimate trump card.
Throw away everything that's transpired for him this season. His true measuring stick will be how he performs on the hallowed red clay in Paris.
Don't write him off yet.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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