Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 7's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice
What good is a fantasy owner who lacks a sense of timing?
Fantasy baseball—just like the real thing—is a game of skill, luck and timing. That last trait in particular comes in handy in regard to getting value in the trading game.
Knowing which player(s) to trade away and which to deal for—and knowing just the right time to do so—can make all the difference.
After all, it doesn't get much better than making a move to unload a hot flavor-of-the-week type who's about to cool off in exchange for a slumping stud who's ready to take off.
Now, speaking of timing, let's get to some players to sell high and buy low.
Buy Low: Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
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2015 Stats: 3 W, 5.98 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 42 K, 0 SV (40.2 IP)
Stephen Strasburg just hasn't been himself so far. More than that, he hasn't looked good, having managed just one quality start in his first eight outings.
On top of that, the 26-year-old has been battling through an uncomfortable neck/shoulder injury that has hampered him over his past few starts. It's been mediocre all around, which has dropped Strasburg's price on the trade market considerably. A guy who was ranked as a borderline top-10 starter has been an utter failure to this point.
But here's the good news. First, Strasburg's FIP is 3.45, a good two-and-a-half runs better than his actual ERA. Chalk that up to some crazy misfortune, as the Washington Nationals right-hander has far and away the highest BABIP in baseball at .389. His 60.6 left-on-base percentage is fourth lowest around, too.
That's a brutal combination of bad luck that even a stud pitcher like Strasburg can't overcome. But it makes him an ideal buy-low candidate, especially since his underlying digits—like that ratio of 42 strikeouts to 12 walks in 40.2 frames—indicate a massive correction toward something close to the numbers we all expected is coming soon.
Sell High: Nelson Cruz, OF, Seattle Mariners
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2015 Stats: .351 BA, 28 R, 16 HR, 33 RBI, 1 SB (170 PA)
Yes, that's right: We're suggesting you should entertain the thought of trading Nelson Cruz, who is leading the American League in batting average and the entire sport in home runs.
You don't have to deal Cruz. You don't want to deal Cruz. But really, why would you not when you can ask for—and potentially receive—just about any player or package of players your little heart desires for the Seattle Mariners slugger?
Besides, it's not as if we haven't seen this hot start from Cruz before. Last year, on his way to an MLB-best 40 homers, the 34-year-old hit (count 'em) 28 homers in the first half, which means he hit a still-good-but-much-less-ridiculous 12 after the break. His average also dropped from .287 to .249.
Speaking of batting average, do you really think a guy who hasn't hit better than .271 (last year's final number) since 2010 is going to achieve a .300 mark, let alone sustain his .350 pace? Not when his current .388 BABIP is a career high, more than 80 points north of his career .303 rate and the sixth highest in MLB.
As for his home runs, well, we know Cruz can hit 'em out with the best of 'em. But again, his home-run-per-fly-ball rate is an elevated 31.4 percent, a full 10 points higher than his previous best and well above his 17.9 career rate. It's also the fifth highest in baseball.
All of which is to say that Cruz's performance at this pace is unsustainable. He's clearly a top-50 overall player, maybe even top-25, but if you can move him for a top-10 guy or two top-25s while he's this hot, or to shore up a few major holes in your lineup or category needs, the opportunity is there.
Buy Low: Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners
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2015 Stats: .264 BA, 15 R, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 1 SB (159 PA)
While you're selling high on Nelson Cruz, you can go ahead and buy low on his Seattle Mariners teammate, Kyle Seager.
The 27-year-old so far has been, well, blah. Exactly none of the numbers Seager has put up are noteworthy or exciting in any way. If you're worried, though, don't be.
Seager still has plenty of time to get going and put up the stats you drafted him for in the fifth or sixth round. To wit, through his first 40 games of 2014—the exact point Seager is at right now this year—he was hitting just .224 with 17 runs, six homers, 23 RBI and two steals.
Look again at the numbers above. Pretty much identical, right? Heck, if anything, Seager already has a 40-point head start in batting average.
So take comfort in the fact that he wound up finishing at .268 with 71 runs, 25 homers, 96 RBI and seven swipes. Is he going to achieve all those stats again in 2015 just because he did after a slow start in 2014? No, but the point is that Seager is still a good fantasy third baseman who has four full months to try.
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Sell High: Brandon Crawford, SS, San Francisco Giants
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2015 Stats: .303 BA, 20 R, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 2 SB (151 PA)
You're enjoying owning Brandon Crawford right now, aren't you? For one, you probably snatched him out of the free-agent pool early on, so he didn't even cost you a draft pick.
For another, the 28-year-old is second among all shortstop-eligible players in home runs—only Hanley Ramirez, who isn't actually playing the position, has more—and ranks No. 1 at the spot in RBI.
That level of production is as good as it gets, especially from someone whom not many even bothered to pick back in March.
In some respects, Crawford's breakout is legitimate. After figuring out how to hit lefties well in 2014 (.879 OPS), he is proving he can do so again this year (1.214 OPS). Plus, he is in his prime and has seen his OPS improve in each of his five seasons.
But here's the rub: Crawford currently is the second-best shortstop in fantasy, per ESPN's player rater.
At this stage, does he look like a capable starting fantasy shortstop? Sure. But is he one of the five best at the position the rest of the way? Highly unlikely, especially since his game offers next-to-no speed element.
Chances are, if you own Crawford, you might still have the shortstop you drafted to be your top option, too, putting you in position to swap the former and plug in the latter, all while getting a nice upgrade elsewhere.
If Crawford is your only SS-eligible player, it's understandably a little tougher to make the move, but—who knows—maybe Ian Desmond or Troy Tulowitzki's owner is fed up. Crawford alone might not get that deal done, but he would be enticing enough as a strong starting point.
Buy Low: Carlos Carrasco, SP/RP, Cleveland Indians
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2015 Stats: 4 W, 4.98 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 51 K, 0 SV (43.1 IP)
As one of the most popular must-have fantasy players in the preseason after what he pulled off over the final two months of 2014, Carlos Carrasco's performance has been a bit underwhelming so far.
The 28-year-old hasn't been bad, but he had to survive that scary come-backer to the face in mid-April and has had quite a few shaky starts. In fact, over his last five outings, the Cleveland Indians right-hander has given up at least three runs in each one, surrendering a total of 21 earned in 32 frames, which translates to a 5.91 ERA—hence, his unsightly 4.98 mark for the year.
That, friends, is what you must point out to Carrasco's owners as you try to slide in and steal him with a below-market offer.
By comparison, his 2.73 FIP is the 11th best in MLB and almost half of his actual ERA, indicating how well he has been throwing despite not getting the best results. Blame the .359 BABIP and 64.2 LOB percentage.
Oh, and get this: Carrasco's strikeout-to-walk ratio during his breakout 2014 was 4.83. This year? Try 5.10.
This is a potential SP2 who merely needs the traditional fantasy categories that don't look so hot right now to start aligning with his impressive underlying metrics. They will—and soon.
Statistics are accurate through Thursday, May 21, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
Need more fantasy baseball help? Come pepper me with your questions on Twitter today at 1 p.m. ET @JayCat11.
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