Cavaliers vs. Hawks: Analysis, Predictions for Eastern Conference Finals Game 2
Until the possibility of elimination enters the equation, there is no such thing as a must-win game.
But Friday's Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals might feel that way for the Atlanta Hawks, who lost home-court advantage—and possibly a prominent player—during Wednesday's 97-89 Game 1 defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
After sprinting out to an early 24-15 advantage, the Hawks couldn't keep their foot on the accelerator. LeBron James scored 14 of his game-high 31 points in the second period as the Cavs erased their early deficit, and the teams entered intermission knotted at 51.
Then, J.R. Smith happened. A lot of J.R. Smith happened.
Cleveland's spark-plug reserve erupted for 28 points (17 in the final 15 minutes), drilling a Cavs playoff franchise record eight threes on 12 long-range attempts. With double-doubles from starting bigs Tristan Thompson (14 points, 10 rebounds) and Timofey Mozgov (11 boards, 10 points), Cleveland found more than enough production to compensate for a quiet night from hobbled All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving (10 points, six assists).
Irving, whose first career NBA playoff appearance has been mired by injury, aggravated the tendinitis issue he's had in his left knee, via TNT's Rachel Nichols:
But the biggest health question mark coming out of Game 1 concerns Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll.
Atlanta's invaluable swingman—Carroll served as James' primary defender and had been Atlanta's leading playoff scorer entering the contest—exited midway through the fourth frame with what appeared to be a non-contact left knee injury. Fortunately, it sounds like he avoided serious harm. The Hawks announced that Carroll only suffered a sprain and is questionable for Game 2:
Still, Carroll's uncertain status going forward is a major question for Atlanta.
"Any potential time Carroll misses could wind up representing a death blow to Atlanta's title hopes," Bleacher Report's Alec Nathan wrote. "Defensively, he's the one stout perimeter option the Hawks had to throw at James. ... Carroll's offense is also going to be terribly difficult to replace."
The Hawks are already searching for offense. Kyle Korver had another quiet night (nine points), Paul Millsap morphed into a volume scorer (13 points on 11 shots) and Dennis Schroder's shooting woes (2-of-10 from the field) limited his impact.
Atlanta should still have some hope entering Game 2. On a night where almost everything went wrong, the Hawks only lost by single digits and had the deficit down to four points in the final minute.
But the Cavs clearly have momentum on their side, in addition to the best player in this series and a noticeable size advantage.
Can the Hawks flash their resilience and avoid dropping a second straight game on their home floor? Or will Cleveland's superstar leader help his club put a stranglehold on this series?
| 2 | Friday | May 22 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Atlanta | TNT |
| 3 | Sunday | May 24 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Cleveland | TNT |
| 4 | Tuesday | May 26 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Cleveland | TNT |
| 5* | Thursday | May 28 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Atlanta | TNT |
| 6* | Saturday | May 30 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Cleveland | TNT |
| 7* | Monday | June 1 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Atlanta | TNT |
Key Storylines
How Does Atlanta Defend LeBron Now?
The Hawks know as well as anyone that there's no real way of stopping James. The King blitzed them for 23.7 points on 53.1 percent shooting during three regular-season matchups, then piled up 31 points, eight boards and six assists in the series opener.
Containment is the only goal in handling James, but is that even possible if Carroll is unavailable or limited? Remember, Atlanta already lost lanky, battle-tested perimeter stopper Thabo Sefolosha to a season-ending broken right fibula during an off-court incident in April.
The Hawks must keep James away from the basket. He made nine of his 12 field goals inside the paint, though as ESPN Stats & Info noted, his conversion rate near the cup cooled considerably in the final frame:
During the first half, Atlanta tried switching on Cleveland's 1-3 pick-and-rolls. That left James working against a much smaller defender, and he mercilessly went to work. He either bullied his way to the basket or punished Atlanta's helpers with pinpoint passes to open shooters.
The Hawks scrapped that strategy at intermission but never found a comfortable matchup for James. Millsap did a decent job on James after Carroll's departure, but James' explosiveness was too much for Millsap to handle on one back-breaking play in the final minute.
If Carroll can't go in Game 2, Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer knows where he'll turn next.
"DeMarre is a perimeter player. I think most likely (the Hawks would) play more Kent Bazemore and players like that," Budenholzer said, via Matt Winkeljohn of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Bazemore is a defensive-minded player but would be giving up three inches and 50 pounds in a matchup with the 6'8", 250-pound James. Korver doesn't have the athleticism to keep pace with James. And, as CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie noted, Atlanta's interior defense would be stretched thin if Millsap gets the assignment:
"Without Carroll/Thabo, tough for Hawks to guard LeBron. They can run a PnR all day to pull both bigs away from the hoop if Millsap’s on him.
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) May 21, 2015"
Frankly, there is no easy answer for handling James. But if the Hawks don't figure out some way to limit his production, this could be a short series.
Who Is Cleveland's Second Scorer?
Scoring was never supposed to be an issue for Cleveland. Not after the Cavs surrounded Irving with James and Kevin Love last summer.
But with Love shelved after shoulder surgery and Irving obviously bothered by his balky knee, Cleveland's talented trio has basically been chopped down to a one-man band. Irving is still physically present but is nowhere close to the offensive threat fans are used to seeing.
"This is obviously one of the most frustrating things I've ever dealt with," Irving said, via Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Fedor. "... The most frustrating part is seeing holes in the defense that I'm used to attacking. I try to make one move, accelerate and then I stop to pass it."
The Cavs can't expect James to win this series on his own. As talented as he is, he still needs help. The streaky Smith provided that in Game 1, but Cleveland's search for a No. 2 option is far from over.
"The Cavs...can't depend on J.R. going off every night," SB Nation's Paul Flannery wrote. "... Irving is clearly limited with his numerous leg ailments and Shump (Iman Shumpert), James Jones and Matthew Dellavedova combined to go 1-for-16."
Cleveland found a way to squeeze out enough offense to survive its second-round slugfest with the Chicago Bulls. The Cavs basically banked all four wins on a surprise scorer surfacing at the right time.
James Jones had 17 points in Game 2. Mozgov contributed 15 points during Game 4. Shumpert and Smith combined for 25 points the next time out, and Dellavedova exploded for 19 in the series-clincher.
Cleveland has complementary scoring options, but none that would be considered reliable. Assuming the Hawks hit their offensive groove at some point—they tied for sixth in efficiency during the regular season—the Cavs will need someone other than James to light the lamp.
Obvious Adjustments Each Team Must Make
Atlanta: Get Al Horford More Involved
Entering Game 1, the Hawks held one clear advantage over the Cavs: frontcourt versatility.
Mozgov, for whom Cavs parted with two future first-round picks in a trade with the Denver Nuggets in January, has been a godsend for Cleveland. He has plugged up holes on the defensive interior and provided more offense than most would have imagined.
But he plays like a traditional big, and Atlanta's All-Star center Al Horford has the contemporary skill set to slaughter traditional bigs.
Horford essentially did just that in Game 1. He pulled Mozgov out of the middle with a couple of early mid-range efforts, then went to work on the interior later in the contest. While the rest of Atlanta's starters shot just 19-of-47 from the field, Horford converted eight of his 12 attempts en route to 16 points.
The quality was superb. But the quantity—or lack thereof, rather—was troubling.
In 38 minutes, Horford only took 12 shots. Reserve point guard Dennis Schroder fired up 10 in less than 20 minutes. As a whole, Atlanta's guards were overly aggressive with their shots. Schroder and starter Jeff Teague combined to take nearly half of the Hawks' total field-goal attempts (34 of 77, 44.2 percent).
The Hawks have to maximize their advantages, and they don't have a bigger one (literally and figuratively) than Horford on whoever's guarding him. If Cleveland has to help on Horford, that should yield cleaner looks for Atlanta's snipers. The Hawks shooters obviously need them after going just 4-of-23 from downtown in the opener.
Cleveland: Never Stop Moving
The Cavs should not have suffered a scare like they did late in Game 1. They had a 14-point lead with less than five minutes remaining but nearly wasted all of it during a four-minute-plus scoring drought.
After Thompson's free throw gave Cleveland a 91-77 edge with 4:58 remaining, the Hawks scored the next 10 points.
What happened to the Cavs offense? Well, it stopped resembling much of an offense at all, as Grantland's Zach Lowe observed:
The Cavs spread the floor and watched James pound the ball in isolation after isolation. By the time he was ready to attack, he either had to force a rushed shot, come crashing into a crowded paint or fire it out to a teammate in the final seconds of the shot clock.
There was no movement, no rhythm and, most importantly, no scoring. That cannot happen again.
"In the fourth quarter I played way too much isolation, one-on-one basketball," James said, via Northeast Ohio Media Group's Joe Vardon. "Allowed the defense to set, and I was letting the clock run down way too much."
The Cavs won't abandon isolations altogether. They have used that play type more than any team in the postseason, and the Hawks just so happen to be the least effective playoff defense against it.
But Cleveland can't be this predictable. If Irving isn't going to pose a serious threat to the defense, the Hawks will overload on LeBron. The Cavs have to keep the ball and their players moving so that the Hawks won't know where the offense is going to come from.
X-Factors
Atlanta: Kent Bazemore
Kent Bazmore, welcome to the biggest moment of your basketball career.
Even if Carroll gives it a go in Game 2, it's hard to say how much the injury might bother him. Defending James is hard enough as it is; attempting to do it at somewhere less than 100 percent might be impossible.
One way or another, Bazemore seems primed to play a bigger role.
"We gotta just keep doing what we've been doing all year, and another guy step up," Kent Bazemore said, via NBA.com's Lang Whitaker. "... We're a very resilient group. We know we've got to make a few adjustments."
Bazemore plays with a ton of energy. His motor can run a little too fast at times, and he's not exactly the most consistent shooter (career 41.9 percent from the field, 34.4 percent from deep). But when he brings the right type of aggressiveness inside the lines, he's capable of making a spark.
The Hawks hope they won't need more than that from Bazemore.
They'll give Carroll every chance they can to prove he's healthy. They have been a completely different team in the playoffs when he's played compared to when he hasn't.
| On Court | 457 | 105.1 | 100.3 | Plus-4.8 |
| Off Court | 172 | 92.6 | 93.5 | Minus-0.9 |
But Carroll can only give as much as his body allows. Whether he needs a break or a full night off, Bazemore will have to pick up the slack.
Cleveland: J.R. Smith
J.R. Smith saved the Cavaliers in Game 1.
There's no other way to put it. He wasn't just Cleveland's main source of bench scoring; he was the entire reserve attack by himself.
"Smith was absurdly hot, hitting step-back jumpers from downtown, pull-up three-point attempts and whatever else his shooting conscience could cook up," wrote CBS Sports' Zach Harper. "It felt like every shot he put up was going to fall."
Most of them did, no matter what Atlanta's defense tried. Smith cashed in a ridiculous 66.7 percent of his contested looks (6-of-9).
He was clearly in the zone and responded accordingly. When the rim looks as it wide as it did Wednesday, any type of shot seems like one worth taking.
The problem is that he can have the same rapid-fire trigger on nights when it isn't working. After shooting Cleveland to a win in the opener, he could just as easily shoot them out of one the next time out. As often as he looks for the long ball, you'd think he'd be more than a career 37.2 percent shooter from long range.
The Cavs need the "good J.R. Smith" to stick around for the duration of this playoff run. If he does, a short-handed Cleveland team could still be a powerful force.
Key Matchup
LeBron James vs. Everybody
It takes a village—and a heap of good fortune—to corral the King.
He impacts the game in so many different ways. In fact, his Game 1 production across multiple categories carried historic significance:
The Hawks have to take something away from him. They must either let him get his points and focus on stopping the others, or concede his production while selling out on shutting down his supporting cast.
They need to make him be either Magic Johnson or Michael Jordan; they can't allow him to be both.
James is a defensive assignment for Atlanta's entire team, even more so now after Carroll's injury. And executing that assignment is a two-way task. The Hawks can't let him breathe on defense. Whoever he's defending should keep him on the move, either by attacking him off the dribble or forcing him to chase him around screens.
Not to oversimplify things, but this is a system-versus-superstar series. Atlanta's collective must do a better job of sticking to that system and making it something special.
The Hawks tried doing too much on their own in Game 1. Their potent passing game was brushed aside for individual attacks. They only dished out 239 passes in the entire contest; that was 32 fewer than the iso-happy Cavs and nowhere close to their regular-season average of 322.9 per game.
"I think if we continue to attack and we continue to attack with pace and move the ball better, I think that's going to give us our best chance going into Game 2," Budenholzer told reporters after Wednesday's tilt.
Going forward, Atlanta has to move better, play quicker and execute smarter. And Cleveland needs James to keep separating himself from every other player in this series.
Prediction
If the Hawks lose Game 2, it's tough to see them surviving this series.
That knowledge should serve as motivation for both sides. Atlanta is essentially fighting for its playoff life. Cleveland knows it can increase its early knockout chances by dealing a critical body blow.
Both teams have a fire underneath them and will likely cancel each other out. But the Hawks should get some extra fuel from the encouraging news on Carroll, regardless of whether he actually plays in Game 2.
With cleaner offensive production and more weapons at their disposal, the Hawks should settle the score before leaving their home base. James will almost surely have another monster outing, but the Cavs will be undone by their lack of reliable scoring help.
Prediction: Hawks defeat Cavs 101-96.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
