MLB 'Contender or Pretender' Breakdown at the One-Quarter Mark
We can stop guessing now. A quarter of the way through the 2015 season, we know who the big winners in Major League Baseball are. They're right there in plain sight.
We do, however, have to decide whether to believe in them.
To do that, we're going to play a classic game of "Contender or Pretender." On our radar are the top teams in MLB, and our goal is to break them down by looking at how they're winning games and whether they have the goods to continue doing so.
More specifically, we'll be looking at the teams with the top 15 records in the league as things stand right now—though please note that all stats referenced within will be one day behind. But since not all would-be contenders are included among them, we'll first get going with some honorable mentions.
Step into the box whenever you're ready.
Sub-.500 Honorable Mentions
1 of 16
Not included in the top 15 teams in the league are a handful of squads that entered the season with their eyes on the postseason. In alphabetical order, they are...
Baltimore Orioles (18-20)
It bodes well for the O's that they play in an AL East that has no dominant team, and they're still among the best on offense and defense. But their pitching looks shaky. They don't have their usual bullpen depth, and their rotation will be a mess once Ubaldo Jimenez, Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez regress to the mean. That'll make it tough for them to stay in the race.
Boston Red Sox (19-22)
Nothing has gone right for the Red Sox, as they're among the AL's worst teams at both generating and preventing runs. And yet, there is hope in both departments, as BaseballSavant.com can vouch that the Red Sox are among MLB's hardest-hitting and hardest-to-hit teams. They're due for some good luck, and the AL East race isn't going to pull away from them in the meantime.
Chicago White Sox (18-20)
The AL Central has turned into the most competitive division in MLB, so the White Sox will need to get more consistent. Trouble is, they're not built for consistency. They lack depth around their big offensive boppers, top starting pitchers and top relievers, and Baseball Prospectus can vouch they're also one of MLB's worst defensive teams.
Cleveland Indians (17-23)
The Indians might have the most exciting rotation foursome in MLB in Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. That gives them hope. Chipping away at that hope, though, are the realities that their offense is painfully hit-or-miss, their bullpen stinks and their defense is still terrible. It'll be hard for them to dig out of their hole, especially in the tough AL Central.
Pittsburgh Pirates (18-22)
The Pirates have the disadvantage of playing in a tough NL Central, and their lineup hasn't provided enough support for a pitching staff that's been doing yeoman's work with a 3.26 ERA. But since Jung-Ho Kang is now playing every day, Josh Harrison is coming around and Andrew McCutchen surely won't stay cold forever, the runs should be there eventually. Don't give up on the Buccos.
Seattle Mariners (18-22)
The Mariners have been about as frustrating as any team in MLB. Specifically, their offense and bullpen have been huge disappointments. It's a good thing there's hope for the former, as the Mariners are in the same boat as the Red Sox in that they're not getting results despite all their hard contact. Assuming the runs come around, they should make a charge befitting of all their preseason hype.
Toronto Blue Jays (19-24)
As expected, the Blue Jays are good at hitting the ball, ranking first in the AL in runs and third in OPS. Their pitching, however, is a train wreck. The Blue Jays are last in the AL in ERA, and there's not much hope of that improving. With only over-the-hill veterans backing up their youth, they're severely lacking in stability. The AL East won't run away from them, but keeping pace will be tough anyway.
St. Louis Cardinals
2 of 16
Record: 27-14
Place: 1st in NL Central
I mean, they're the Cardinals. So they're obviously a legit contender, right?
Pretty much, though there is more to say here.
The Cardinals entered Thursday with easily the National League's largest run differential at plus-61, and that highlights just how well-balanced they are as a team. They rank in the top five of the Senior Circuit in runs (181) and OPS (.746) and are arguably the best pitching team in all of MLB.
The offense should keep it up. Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter are doing their usual thing, while Kolten Wong is in the middle of a breakout anyone could have seen coming. In the long run, Jason Heyward, Matt Adams and Yadier Molina should also come around.
Meanwhile on the mound, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn and John Lackey have sub-3.00 ERAs, and Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and (when healthy) Jordan Walden are forming an excellent bullpen trio. This is what's leading to the Cardinals' MLB-best 2.72 ERA, and they also have the peripherals to back that up.
In so many words: Yup, they're still the Cardinals.
Verdict: Contender
Kansas City Royals
3 of 16
Record: 26-14
Place: 1st in AL Central
Heading into the season, the Royals had the look of MLB's biggest regression candidate. Instead, they've turned slowly around, smirked and said in their best Arnold Schwarzenegger voice, "Regress this."
Thanks largely to Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas finally making good on their former prospect hype, and free-agent bargain buy Kendrys Morales finding his stroke again, the Royals have added some power to go with their speed and contact abilities. They now lead the AL in OPS (.771) and are second in runs (202). And to nobody's surprise, they also have MLB's most efficient defense at converting batted balls into outs, per Baseball Prospectus.
The one downside is that Royals starters have needed as much help as they can get, as only Edinson Volquez has been reliable on a regular basis. It's a good thing, then, that Kansas City's bullpen is still more than capable of picking up the slack. It doesn't quite have the peripherals to back up its 1.61 ERA, but no amount of regression is going to knock it from the ranks of MLB's elite bullpens.
If there's a concern, it's that the Royals have been living too much of a charmed life. But when that's the only concern, you must be pretty good.
Verdict: Contender
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Houston Astros
4 of 16
Record: 27-15
Place: 1st in AL West
This is where things get surprising. Of all the teams to have the league's third-best record...the Astros?
Yup. And that's more believable than you might think.
It's easy to look at Houston's AL-worst .231 batting average and 371 strikeouts and assume their offense is doomed. But power and speed can make up for a lot, and their roster is perfectly constructed to handle both. It's no surprise to see them leading the AL in homers (61) and stolen bases (39).
But homers and steals aren't the only things this lineup excels at. It also excels at defense, as the Astros rank as one of MLB's five best teams in defensive efficiency, per Baseball Prospectus.
Benefiting from that is an Astros pitching staff that has a rock-solid 3.38 ERA. And though rotation depth is a weakness, AL Cy Young front-runner Dallas Keuchel and a hugely improved bullpen make up for that.
Houston's recipe for success isn't foolproof. And no, in the long run it probably won't result in the Astros running away with the AL West. But you better believe it's good enough to keep producing results.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 16
Record: 24-16
Place: 1st in NL West
Shoot, for $272 million, the Dodgers had better be a legit contender.
The Dodgers are where they are mainly on the strength of their offense. Though it's cooled in recent games, L.A. still leads the National League in OPS (.804) and home runs (54). It's also the hardest-hitting offense in MLB and should become even more dangerous once Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford return.
Where the Dodgers are being tested is on the mound, where Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu have been lost to season-ending injuries. That's a major dent in their depth, and they know it.
"Replacing those innings is not an ideal situation," skipper Don Mattingly told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. "It's a test for the club as far as depth. Every team deals with some measure of injury. Starting pitching is the toughest to deal with."
And yet, the Dodgers could be worse off. Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw still lead the club's rotation, and Brett Anderson's revival is going strong. The Dodgers also have the NL's best bullpen, and it could get even better with relief ace Kenley Jansen having only recently returned from injury.
So yes, $272 million has bought a pretty good team.
Verdict: Contender
Detroit Tigers
6 of 16
Record: 25-17
Place: 2nd in AL Central
The Tigers are only 14-15 since beginning the season on an 11-2 romp, and their run differential is a modest plus-15. That highlights how they are indeed less than a perfect team.
In an odd twist of fate, the main area of concern is Detroit's rotation. It hasn't been so great with a 4.09 ERA, and its potential to improve on that is shaky. David Price and Alfredo Simon have been solid, but they're also part of a larger problem: Tigers starters suddenly stink at missing bats.
Detroit's bullpen unfortunately has the same problem. And all told, Detroit pitchers have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the majors at 6.3 punchouts per nine innings.
Fortunately, the defense is up to the task of handling the extra work. The Tigers rank 11th in defensive efficiency, per Baseball Prospectus, which is mainly a product of being much stronger up the middle thanks to the addition of center fielder Anthony Gose and a healthy Jose Iglesias at shortstop.
Also, this Tigers lineup can hit a bit. Miguel Cabrera is looking like his old self, and he's surrounded by solid hitters in every direction. It's not by accident that the Tigers are second in the AL in OPS at .768.
So, though the Tigers have cooled down, they shouldn't fall out of the race.
Verdict: Contender
Washington Nationals
7 of 16
Record: 24-17
Place: 1st in NL East
The Nationals haven't yet become the superteam that many expected them to be. But as of now, they're at least trending in that direction.
The Nationals have responded to a disappointing 7-13 start by winning 17 out of their last 21 games, and that's mainly been thanks to their offense. Led by the otherworldly hot Bryce Harper—it has got to be the Peaky Blinders haircut—the Nats lead the NL in runs (205) and are second in OPS (.751).
And that's without much production out of Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond or Jayson Werth, and nothing out of the injured Anthony Rendon. That won't last forever, and that's a scary thought.
Meanwhile, Washington's pitching is also just scratching the surface of its potential. Jordan Zimmermann's hot May is allowing him to catch up with Max Scherzer, and Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg should follow suit. They just need to collect on some good luck that they're clearly owed.
The one area where the Nationals are legitimately weak is on defense, where they're just not good at all. But with enough offense and pitching, they can make up for that.
Verdict: Contender
Minnesota Twins
8 of 16
Record: 23-17
Place: 3rd in AL Central
To call the Twins a surprise contender is putting it too lightly. They're more like a miraculous contender.
Maybe too miraculous.
It's hard to explain Minnesota's 23-17 start when looking at the practical measures of team success. The Twins may be fourth in the AL with 183 runs, but they're only 11th with a .698 OPS. They're also 11th in ERA and with even weaker peripherals. Lastly, they're in the bottom 10 in MLB in defensive efficiency.
Short version: The Twins aren't particularly good at hitting, pitching or fielding. So, what's the deal?
Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs looked into that and found that the Twins are getting by on their ability to own high-leverage situations. But while that's not a bad way to win games, it's also a habit that, to use Sullivan's words, "you just can't expect to sustain."
No, you can't. And in a tough AL Central and crowded wild-card race, the Twins' eventual regression is likely to sting pretty bad. As such, we finally have our first...
Verdict: Pretender
Chicago Cubs
9 of 16
Record: 23-17
Place: 2nd in NL Central
The Cubs approached 2015 like it would be the year where their rebuild would finally end. And so far, it's looking like they were right to do so.
The Cubs have one thing that teams should be afraid of: their offense. Since Kris Bryant arrived on April 17 and joined Anthony Rizzo in the middle of the lineup, the Cubs have gone from batting .224 and scoring 4.0 runs per game to batting .252 and scoring 4.3 runs per game. And that's likely just their offensive floor, as Starlin Castro, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell are better than they've shown.
Pitching-wise, Jon Lester has shrugged off a cool April with a hot May, and those efforts have put him in a legitimately dangerous front three alongside Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel. And though Cubs relievers only have a 4.20 ERA, their peripherals rightly suggest some bad luck has been going on.
No, the Cubs probably aren't going to track down the Cardinals. But on the whole, they've definitely gone from a club with little to like to a club with lots to like.
Verdict: Contender
New York Mets
10 of 16
Record: 24-18
Place: 2nd in NL East
The Mets started the year off with a 13-3 record that included an 11-game win streak. At last, they seemed ready to escape from the purgatorial nightmare that is being the Mets.
Or not. They have since gone 11-15 in their last 26 games and have shown their flaws along the way.
Offense is the Mets' biggest problem, as they've gone from scoring 4.6 runs per game through 16 games to scoring 3.3 per game ever since. That highlights how short they are on hitting threats outside of Lucas Duda, and the pending return of Travis d'Arnaud may only fix so much of the problem.
This puts a lot of pressure on the pitching staff, which is fortunately quite good. Matt Harvey leads an outstanding starting rotation, and the club's bullpen has peripherals that really aren't much worse than its impressive 2.48 ERA.
The question is how much help the Mets' pitching is going to get from their defense. The Mets are a solid defensive team as a whole, but they're not well-balanced in the field. Led by Juan Lagares, their outfield defense is quite good. But with Wilmer Flores and Daniel Murphy up the middle, their infield defense is not.
It all adds up to a volatile mix that's already starting to become unstable.
Verdict: Pretender
San Francisco Giants
11 of 16
Record: 23-18
Place: 2nd in NL West
Things were looking dire when the Giants started the year off 3-9, but the defending champs have since gone 20-9 and have won six in a row.
How it's happening is hard to figure out. The Giants offense is fourth in the NL in OPS but also 13th in runs. Their pitching staff has the fifth-best ERA in the NL at 3.43 but also has much weaker peripherals. And per Jeff Sullivan's research, the Giants haven't been that great in pressure situations.
What you get is a picture of a team that's overachieving. Then you can zoom in a little closer and pinpoint the bigger overachievers: Brandon Crawford, Gregor Blanco and, perhaps most of all, Tim Lincecum. Surely, regression is inevitable, right?
It should be...but these are also the Giants we're talking about. They have a way of avoiding regression.
And they're set up to do so again. Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Hunter Pence have enough talent to carry the offense, and Madison Bumgarner has the goods to carry the pitching staff. What will help even further is that the Giants are a very good defensive team that plays in a big ballpark.
The Giants are probably greater than the sum of their parts. But then, they usually are.
Verdict: Contender
Tampa Bay Rays
12 of 16
Record: 23-19
Place: 1st in AL East
If you wrote them off after the departures of David Price, Ben Zobrist, Wil Myers, Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman, yes, the Rays are actually still a pretty good team.
Just don't expect them to be a great team, as they have flaws that should hold them back all season.
One is that their offense is good, ranking 11th in the AL in runs (162) and 10th in OPS (.699). Though the Rays could be a lot worse off in terms of depth, their lack of power and speed adds up to a small margin for error.
The other flaw the Rays have is a lack of pitching depth thanks to season-ending injuries to Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly. Without them, they'll be leaning on a couple of unknowns in their starting rotation.
And yet, run prevention has been and should continue to be a major strength. Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi are a terrific rotation duo, and Matt Moore will soon join them. In the meantime, Jake McGee is back to forming a power relief duo with the underrated Brad Boxberger. And one thing all Rays pitchers will be doing is pitching to one of MLB's elite defenses.
So, though the Rays aren't going to be great, they have enough to continue being pretty good. And in a volatile AL East division, that should be good enough.
Verdict: Contender
New York Yankees
13 of 16
Record: 22-19
Place: 2nd in AL East
What are this year's Yankees? Are they the team that started 21-12 or the team that's since gone 1-7?
In reality, they're probably closer to the latter team—which is to say: very much flawed.
The Yankees are not without their strengths. Led by Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, their bullpen is loaded with enough depth and talent to protect any lead. And in Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and, surprisingly, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, the top of the Yankees lineup is dangerous.
But that's also where things begin to fall apart. Outside of Chase Headley, it's hard to have faith in anyone in the bottom half of the lineup. And as a whole, this is a unit that plays mediocre defense.
That hasn't been an issue for the bullpen, but it's no help to a rotation that deserves its 4.23 ERA more than its strong peripherals. Outside of Michael Pineda, the Yankees don't have another trustworthy starter. Even when Masahiro Tanaka returns, his more recent history suggests that could still be the case.
The good news? The Yankees also play in the AL East. They may only be excellent in their bullpen and at the top of their lineup, but that's probably enough to stay in the race.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Angels
14 of 16
Record: 21-20
Place: 2nd in AL West
After winning a league-best 98 games in 2014, the Angels haven't had it easy in 2015. That's mainly because their biggest strength last season has become their biggest weakness.
After leading MLB in runs in 2014, the Angels suddenly can't hit a lick. They rank dead-last in the AL in OPS (.647) and second-to-last in runs (147), which is what happens when your offense suffers through a sudden lack of depth. Outside of the excellent one-two punch of Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun, the Angels basically don't have any other quality hitters.
And that may not change, as the rest of the lineup consists of unproven guys (Johnny Giavotella and C.J. Cron) and guys who are past their primes (Albert Pujols, David Freese, Erick Aybar, et al). In light of this, the Angels must be more about run prevention.
Fortunately, that's not asking too much. Though the Angels' 3.48 ERA comes off as lucky in light of their peripherals, it's a product of the huge dimensions of Angel Stadium and the club's elite defense. Helping matters even further is how the pitching staff is among the best at limiting soft contact, per BaseballSavant.com.
They're not going to run away with the AL West like in 2014, but the Angels have enough to hang in there.
Verdict: Contender
Atlanta Braves
15 of 16
Record: 20-20
Place: 3rd in NL East
At first glance, the Braves are the foremost "Lucky to Be Here" team in this slideshow. They weren't supposed to contend this year and are just 14-19 since starting the year off 6-1.
And...yeah, it's kind of hard to argue otherwise.
The Braves aren't without their bright spots. They have an early Cy Young contender in Shelby Miller, and Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons are still offensive and defensive stars, respectively. It also looks like they've found some bargains in A.J. Pierzynski, Cameron Maybin and Jim Johnson.
But all told, the Braves just don't have enough of pretty much everything.
Their offense is mediocre (.698 OPS), even despite Pierzynski and Maybin playing over their heads, and Miller and Johnson are bright spots in a pitching staff that might actually be overachieving with its modest 3.93 ERA. The Braves don't have great depth in either their rotation or their bullpen, and they're all pitching to a defense that's just OK, even despite Simmons' wizardly presence.
As it is, the Braves are barely in an NL East race they can't possibly win and on the fringe of the NL wild-card race. Asking them to hang in there is likely asking too much.
Verdict: Pretender
San Diego Padres
16 of 16
Record: 20-22
Place: 3rd in NL West
The Padres acquired a whole bunch of talent over the winter, with the idea being to find their way back to relevancy in 2015. And they have...to an extent.
On the bright side, the one thing that's panned out beautifully is San Diego general manager A.J. Preller's offensive renovation. The Padres have gone from being one of the worst offensive teams in history in 2014 to being fourth in the National League with 181 runs. New additions Justin Upton, Derek Norris and Wil Myers have done their part, and fellow new addition Matt Kemp should eventually live up to his track record.
The trouble, however, is that winning games consistently may take more offense than even San Diego's much-improved lineup can provide.
As expected, the Padres are a disaster on defense, ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency. That's not going to help a pitching staff that's been surprisingly vulnerable, and San Diego pitchers are only making things worse with their MLB-worst home run habit. And while that should get better, the reality that Padres starters have been hit as hard as any in MLB, per BaseballSavant.com, suggests that maybe it won't.
In short, San Diego's run prevention looks as bad as its run generation looks good. That's been a recipe for a .500 team so far, which could be the case the rest of the year.
Verdict: Pretender
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked and are current through play on Thursday, May 21.
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