French Open Tennis 2015: Predictions and Early Title Favorites
The 2015 French Open draw is still pending, but there have already been themes this clay-court season that project possible outcomes. The favorites at Roland Garros are competing at the dawn of a transitional era, when new challengers take on stars like Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams.
The following slides are six of the most important storylines that flavor the French Open as we await the draw and opening rounds. Who are the favorites? What are some of the possibilities that could unfold?
Rafael Nadal Will Not Win the French Open
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OK, this is not exactly a bold prediction in 2015. After dominating the previous 10 years with nine titles, Rafael Nadal is no longer the favorite to win the title most synonymous with his legacy.
Nadal is the first one to cast doubts upon his chances through his reflective and cautionary style of rhetoric that could be used to take some of the pressure off himself. An example of this came in his recent comments, per ATP World Tour:
"I’m going to be ranked lower than ever playing Roland Garros, so that will mean the chance to play against very tough opponents. At the same time, if I go to Roland Garros and I lose and I don’t play well, life continues. It’s not the end of the world," he said.
Even diehard Nadal fans can only hope he has enough past magic to click his clay-court heels and believe there is no place like Roland Garros. The reality is that Nadal is not playing championship-level tennis at all.
Nadal might only stand half a chance to get past the fourth round, where he was famously defeated by Robin Soderling in 2009. If he does get through, he will likely need to defeat top-10 competitors and conjure up a miracle to defeat Novak Djokovic.
It’s not likely to happen this year, but never say never. Nadal has often proved to he can defy the odds. We say "no" but leave the door slightly ajar.
Which Young ATP Player Will Rise Up in France?
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We’ve seen young, potential stars show glimpses of their talent at Wimbledon in recent years. In 2013, Jerzy Janowicz reached the semifinals. In 2014, Nick Kyrgios defeated Richard Gasquet and Rafael Nadal to land in the quarterfinals. Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov journeyed to the semifinals.
At the 2014 U.S. Open, Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic met for the title.
So far in 2015 a few more rumblings have shaken the tennis scene. At the Australian Open, Kyrgios, Nishikori and Raonic reached the quarterfinals. Then Bernard Tomic and Dominic Thiem played well in a few mid-level tournaments.
One of these players will likely go on a big run. A lot depends upon the upcoming draw, but a little chaos and a lot of confidence can go a long way. Nishikori is the likely choice with more proven success on clay, as he is perhaps outright one of the top five clay-court players in the world. But that almost seems too likely.
We will get behind Dominic Thiem to make a strong run if the draw gives him a nice route.
Simona or Petra?
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It’s an important question for the future of tennis. Simona Halep represents the finesse player. She hustles on every shot and creates imaginative paces and angles to compensate for her lack of clout. There are fewer shots more beautiful than her running double-backhand up the line, kind of familiar to Andre Agassi fans.
On the other side is two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova. If she corrals her power and adapts well to clay for two weeks, as she did in winning Madrid, she could be the embodiment of how muscle triumphs over salad tossers.
It’s easy to pick Halep in going deeper, say the semifinals, but if Halep is there with Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova and Kvitova it might be too much to overcome. If Kvitova gets there, she could have the better chance to power her way to the title.
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Serena vs. Maria
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Not a rivalry when it comes to tennis results, but Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova are still the big stars when WTA major championships are discussed. On the one hand, Serena’s two French Open titles are mortal by her standards. She is more vulnerable on clay than anywhere else simply because it levels off some of her power advantage.
Sharapova’s two French Open titles mark a recent career evolution. She can stand back on the clay baseline and blast her way through just about anyone. It’s also true that Serena has mowed through her so often she would be the favorite if they met.
But neither player is a lock anymore. One of them could be a headline upset victim and the other will need to fight their way through a deep WTA top 10 for a chance at a title.
The field vs. Maria and Serena might be the more solid choice.
Dark Horses for the Men’s Championship
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Roger Federer reminded the world that he considers himself a contender following his Rome final loss to Novak Djokovic, asserting that it would not be just about Djokovic and Rafael Nada, per ATP World Tour: "I hope there's going to be some other guys who will be a part of that group and I hope in particular myself."
The Swiss maestro is right in one regard. If the Serbian and Spaniard do self-destruct, he could be the one to emerge from the rubble. He has the 2009 French Open trophy as proof of conquest and relief from pressure. He needs a friendly draw, quick offensive strikes and youthful energy for the second weekend. But beware of an untimely upset.
Kei Nishikori could be the new David Ferrer. He has plenty of persistence and budding consistency, but can he beat two or three of the big boys at the very end. The 2014 U.S. Open is a validation, but he also fell short in the final. Give him a long-shot chance, but he has also not yet won a major or Masters 1000 final.
Big-basher Stan Wawrinka could be out in one day, one week or get all the way to the final. He’s like the spy in Stratego. He might be the only one to straight-up defeat Djokovic and Nadal, but he could lose to anyone else.
Tomas Berdych is up to No. 4 in the world but almost five years have passed since his lone final appearance in a major, 2010 Wimbledon. Give him maybe a slim chance at a career highlight, but like Ferrer he has been unable to cash in the big-match chips.
What about Grigor Dimitrov? Probably not, so we’ll save the analysis.
Novak Djokovic Will Win His First French Open
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Dear Novak Djokovic, this is your championship to win or lose. The past five years have been a mission for this elusive title and this is seemingly your best chance ever. You have drubbed the entire ATP since November and you are better, fitter and stronger than anyone else.
Rafael Nadal or not, this is your time.
Just don’t forget the anguished comments of another legend, Andre Agassi. In 1995, the American roared into Paris after dominating the tour. It was his time to win the French Open, until his hip flexor was injured in the quarterfinals against Yevgeny Kafelnikov. Agassi lamented in his autobiography Open, p. 207:
"As I leave Paris, I don’t feel defeated; I feel cheated. This was it, I just knew. My last chance. Never again will I be in Paris feeling so strong, so young. Never again will I inspire such fear in the locker room.
My golden opportunity to win all four slams is gone.
"
OK, Novak, you are not Agassi, but I’m sure you respect the history and combative nature of your sport. Take nothing for granted and leave no regrets. If you don’t win the French Open this year, all hope is not lost. Agassi did go on and get that unexpected French Open title four years later.
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