Predicting the Top 10 MLB Players to Be Traded This Season
Johnny Cueto and Carlos Gomez are just two of the big-time big leaguers who should be sure to keep their phones close by.
Cueto, who is a free-agent-to-be superstar, and Gomez, who is a game-changer on a dud of a team, are the two types of players who populate the list that follows. The MLB trade deadline is still more than two months away, but it's already beginning to become clear which teams will be buying and selling this summer.
As a result, it's worth combing through the league to figure out which prominent players have the best chance of ending the campaign with a new employer. The major leaguer who lands in the No. 1 spot in this top 10 is the player who has the ability to make the biggest impact on the 2015 MLB playoff race.
In the ranking process, two primary factors were taken into consideration:
- 2014 performance
- The respective player's broader track record.
Cueto ends up right at the top of the rankings, but he's not the only impact arm who could make a big difference in how the playoff race shakes out.
Honorable Mention
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Before running down the top 10, here's a look at a few of the MLB players who just missed the cut:
- Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
- Ben Revere, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
- Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
- Kyle Lohse, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
- Mike Leake, SP, Cincinnati Reds
- Justin Morneau, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Howard is the most surprising inclusion, but so far the numbers have been unexpectedly encouraging for the Philadelphia Phillies first baseman, who checks in with an .828 OPS and nine home runs. Ultimately, he doesn't make the list because he's still owed at least $60 million between now and the end of his contract.
10. Mark Trumbo, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Contract Situation: Owed $6.9 million in 2015
The Trade Chip
Mark Trumbo is a textbook trade piece.
The 29-year-old outfielder is about to hit the free-agent block at the end of the season and plays a position where his current team has plenty of alternate options.
There's also the consideration that Trumbo has major pop, which is always a highly sought-after asset on the trade front. Back in April, ESPN Insider Jim Bowden dubbed the righty masher the No. 7 trade target in the game. With six home runs and a .519 slugging percentage, Trumbo has the power to draw the interest of an array of suitors.
9. Tyler Clippard, RP, Oakland Athletics
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The Contract Situation: Owed $8.3 million in 2015
The Trade Chip
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Oakland Athletics, who have careened to a 14-29 record, aren't ready to start selling off their valuable pieces just yet.
Then again, if the squad doesn't rebound from its early funk ASAP, Clippard is one of the players whom Rosenthal describes as "almost certain" to be moved. With Sean Doolittle on the shelf with a shoulder injury, the veteran right-hander has been miscast as Oakland's closer but has plenty to offer as a shutdown setup man.
Clippard has been remarkably consistent, racking up at least 72 outings in each of the past five campaigns and snagging two All-Star selections in the process.
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8. Ben Zobrist, UTL, Oakland Athletics
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The Contract Situation: Owed $7.5 million in 2015
The Trade Chip
Ben Zobrist is the Swiss army knife of baseball.
The switch-hitter has the defensive versatility to line up all over the diamond. The 33-year-old also has sneaky-good power, as he's piled up at least 34 doubles in each of the past four seasons.
There is a complication in listing Zobrist as a potential trade target. After undergoing knee surgery, Zobrist hasn't played for Oakland since April 24. According to Zack Bayrouty, the broadcaster of the Stockton Ports, Zobrist is currently on a minor league rehab assignment with Oakland's High-A squad.
If his knee cooperates and the Athletics' season continues to go sideways, general manager Billy Beane will be fielding tons of calls for Zobrist.
7. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
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The Contract Situation: Owed $13 million in 2015 with a $13 million vesting option in 2016
The Trade Chip
Jonathan Papelbon is just one of a slew of Philadelphia Phillies who appears set to be auctioned off to the highest bidder.
"We have a solution for all the needs," said GM Ruben Amaro Jr. when asked about the team's array of trade chips by Ken Rosenthal. "A solution for everybody.”
Papelbon is the best solution for a contender looking to shore up the ninth inning. The right-handed closer is sporting a 1.50 ERA in 18 outings and has converted 11-of-11 save opportunities.
He won't be a cheap solution, though. The 34-year-old makes $13 million this season and has a vesting option for the same amount next year if he finishes 55 games in 2015 or 100 from 2014-2015.
6. Carlos Gonzalez, RF, Colorado Rockies
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The Contract Situation: Owed $16 million in 2015, $17 million in 2016 and $20 million in 2017
The Trade Chip
According to Rosenthal, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki will only be shipped out if Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort wants such a swap to happen.
For now, Rosenthal doesn't think that Tulo is going anywhere, writing: "But know this: Tulowitzki will not be traded until Monfort is willing to trade him. And to this point, Monfort still has not given any indication he is ready to make such a move."
While Rosenthal stamps out the idea of a Tulowitzki trade, the door remains slightly ajar when it comes to Gonzalez. The career .290 hitter and two-time Gold Glover offers a rare combination of offensive and defensive skill but hasn't exactly boosted his trade value in 2015. After 37 games, CarGo is hitting .211 and has driven in just 12 runs.
5. Scott Kazmir, SP, Oakland Athletics
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The Contract Situation: Owed $13 million in 2015
The Trade Chip
The owner of a 3.08 ERA and set to become a free agent at season's end, Scott Kazmir is the ideal rental starter. The lefty has been highly consistent in 2015, allowing three earned runs or fewer in seven of his eight outings.
Already, there are an array of contenders who could use a reliable starting pitcher like Kazmir. The Los Angeles Dodgers, whose rotation has been dinged up by injuries, fit the bill.
Los Angeles will be without Brandon McCarthy for the rest of the season while the right-hander rebounds from Tommy John surgery. According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, Hyun-Jin Ryu is also done for the season after undergoing surgery on his left shoulder.
4. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
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The Contract Situation: Owed $16 million in 2015 and $18 million in 2016
The Trade Chip
Power isn't easy to find on the trade block, so Adrian Beltre would become a popular target if the Texas Rangers choose to make him available.
The 36-year-old third baseman hasn't exactly been teeing off in 2015 but is beginning to find his swing after a glacial April in which he hit .205 with a .327 slugging percentage. In May, Beltre is batting .313, and his slugging percentage is .494.
Jonah Keri of Grantland argues that the San Francisco Giants should kick the tires on Beltre. The four-time All-Star would be a major upgrade over either Casey McGehee or Matt Duffy, but also an expensive one. Beltre rakes in $16 million this year and is set to earn $18 million in 2016.
3. Carlos Gomez, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
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The Contract Situation: Owed $8 million in 2015 and $9 million in 2016
The Trade Chip
With Carlos Gomez under contract through the end of the 2016 season, the Milwaukee Brewers are under no pressure to part ways with the center fielder.
Then again, dealing the Dominican would be a great way for the 15-27 Milwaukee Brewers to land a monster haul. As Buster Olney of ESPN explained at the beginning of May, Gomez would likely be the Brewers' "most attractive" trade chip to other teams.
It's easy enough to understand why. The 29-year-old is a true triple threat. Gomez offers power (61 extra-base hits in 2014), speed (34 steals in 2014) and is a two-time Gold Glover.
2. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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The Contract Situation: Owed $23.5 million in 2015, $23.5 million in 2016, $23.5 million in 2017 and $23.5 million in 2018 with a $20 million team option, a $24 million vesting option or a $6 million buyout in 2019
The Trade Chip
After an uncharacteristically shaky start to the season, Cole Hamels is officially back on track.
The lefty is also driving his trade value up.
In his last three outings for the Philadelphia Phillies, Hamels has served up just four earned runs. On the year, the ace is now the owner of a 3.24 ERA and an impressive 9.6 K/9 ratio.
While the on-field results are trending in the right direction, the money left on Hamels' seven-year, $159 million will scare off some of his potential suitors. Between now and the end of his contract, Hamels will make at least $100 million.
1. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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The Contract Situation: Owed $10 million
The Trade Chip
With an 18-22 record, the Cincinnati Reds are right in the playoff mix in the NL.
The team is also facing a serious dilemma in terms of figuring out what to do with Johnny Cueto. The 2014 NL Cy Young Award runner-up is set to become a free agent at the end of the season.
As Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported at the beginning of the campaign, Cueto isn't willing to discuss a contract extension during the season and is angling for a payday in the $200 million range. Unless the Reds want to offer Cueto a mint in the winter, dealing him this summer is the only way to get any value for the righty starter.
Note: All stats and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and/or MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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