Belmont Stakes 2015: Breaking Down Odds of Top Contenders
American Pharoah is going to have to wait more than two weeks before he gets a chance to become the first horse in 37 years to win the Triple Crown.
After an impressive win in the Kentucky Derby and an even better performance in the rain at the Preakness Stakes, trainer Bob Baffert's horse is an odds-on 4-5 favorite in the Belmont Stakes June 6.
It's not unusual for any horse that won the Derby and the Preakness to be favored in the Triple Crown's final jewel. It is unusual for those horses to complete the task. Thirteen horses have won the first two races in the Triple Crown since Affirmed won all three races in 1978, but none of them has completed the assignment.
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That includes Spectacular Bid in 1979, the year after Affirmed's brilliant performance, and California Chrome last year.
The 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes requires a horse with the stamina to survive horse racing's toughest test. Any horse that gets away too quickly and sets a fast pace will have a difficult time holding its position as it tackles Belmont Park's taxing stretch run.
Baffert and jockey Victor Espinoza are a talented and experienced duo, and they should be able to work out a plausible strategy for the Belmont Stakes. However, there are some talented and rested horses who could make it very difficult for American Pharoah to complete the task.
| Horse | Odds |
| American Pharoah | 10-11 |
| Frosted | 5-1 |
| Materiality | 13-2 |
| Carpe Diem | 18-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| Divining Rod | 20-1 |
| Keen Ice | 22-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 25-1 |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 |
| Frammento | 50-1 |
Frosted (5-1) did not run in the Preakness, and he should be ready to run a solid race at Belmont Park. Frosted was in poor position throughout much of the Derby and was 15th in the 18-horse field with just one-half of a mile to run. However, he turned it on at that point and rallied to fourth and was just 3 ¼ lengths behind American Pharoah at the finish.
If he can get off to a better start here, Frosted has a chance to run well and cause problems for the favorite.
Materiality (8-1) is another horse who did fairly well in the Derby and did not run in the Preakness. He came into the Run for the Roses undefeated in three starts, but he had been lightly raced. Materiality had won his three previous races by getting to the front early. But that was a task he could not handle in the 18-horse field, and he was shuffled toward the back of the pack. He should be much more comfortable in the 11-horse Belmont field.
If Materiality can get off to a sharp start and the fractions are not abusive, he has a chance to make a strong showing.
Carpe Diem (16-1) ran a poor 10th in the Kentucky Derby and didn't have any excuse, but Todd Pletcher's horse had been fairly impressive prior to that with victories in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes. Pletcher has had three horses that finished 11th or worse since 2009 in the Kentucky Derby and improved to first or second in the Belmont Stakes. Carpe Diem has the right trainer to show improvement in New York.
Madefromlucky (16-1) has a big challenge in front of him because American Pharoah has already beaten him in two previous races. However, he responded after those two defeats to win the Peter Pan Stakes. Madefromlucky is a tough, grinding horse who looks like he could be able to handle the distance. He also has the early speed to keep up with the fastest horses.
Mubtaahij (16-1) had a big problem in the Kentucky Derby because he saved ground nearly all the way and still couldn't finish better than eighth. He didn't appear to have much left in the tank down the stretch, and that's not a good indicator for a race that is a quarter-mile longer than the Derby. If Mubtaahij gets off to a better start, he could be in a position to make a good run, but will he have the stamina to last?
Horse racing odds provided by VegasInsider.com.
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