8 NFL Coaches Under the Most Pressure in 2015

If you're looking to gamble on NFL futures, it's likely that you've considered a lot of factors. Perhaps you've looked at Football Outsiders projections. Maybe you've created an elaborate system where you consider the quarterback and added up Pro Football Focus' plus/minus. Perhaps you've just looked at the win total over/unders. 

But one thing you might forget about when you're deciding the future of a team is the track record of the head coach. This is a big mistake, as Danny Tuccitto's research into multilevel modeling reveals that head coaches are an important and oft-ignored factor in projecting next season's results. 

Let's look at how Vegas predicts things to work out for eight coaches who are under the most pressure this year. We'll go ahead and skip the eight new head coaches. While I'm sure some of them (Gary Kubiak) will be under a lot of pressure, they're highly unlikely to be fired right away. 

Instead, we'll focus on coaches who have some combination of poor past results, weak talent, a likely decline coming to the team and urgency from ownership or general managers. How long the coach has been with a team is also a factor.

8. Ken Whisenhunt, Tennessee

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Over/Under Wins: 5

Early FOA Projection (Courtesy of Football Outsiders Via ESPN.com): 6.7 mean wins

While it's unfair to speculate that Ken Whisenhunt drafted Marcus Mariota second overall to buy himself a year or two with the Titans, I understand the logic. Whisenhunt's Titans looked woefully underprepared last season. It was, talent-wise, an awful roster. Whisenhunt was a bad game manager, and defensive coordinator Ray Horton was so inept that he's been replaced in everything but name by Dick LeBeau. 

The Titans made a lot of splashes this offseason, but they were all risky moves. Brian Orakpo has spent more of the last two seasons on injured reserve than on the field. Da'Norris Searcy would have been lucky to receive a two-year deal prior to his breakout 2014 campaign. Mariota and wideout Dorial Green-Beckham were two of the highest-ceiling, lowest-floor players in the NFL draft. 

The Titans have a chance at remaining pretty bad in 2015. This is a situation where an ownership change could be in the cards. If a new owner walks into another 4-12 record from Whisenhunt, will that be enough to keep the status quo in place? I doubt it.

7. Sean Payton, New Orleans

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Over/Under Wins: 9.0

Early FOA Projection (Courtesy of Football Outsiders Via ESPN.com): 9.7 mean wins

This is a roster in chaos right now. The Jimmy Graham trade re-enabled the Saints to stock their offensive line. But with only an aging Marques Colston and 2014 first-rounder Brandin Cooks in the receiving corps, will Drew Brees' passing offense continue to function as it has in the past? 

New Orleans had five picks in the first two days of the draft. Will it regret spending a third-rounder on quarterback Garrett Grayson that could have brought in more talent for the last run of the Brees era? Will the added pieces on defense be enough to make Rob Ryan's unit function properly? For all the hemming and hawing about a Brees decline, the Saints finished 31st in defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders. 

And if a Brees decline is imminent, does the continued faith that head coach Sean Payton had in both Ryan and Brees make him a candidate to be let go? Rebuilds usually don't continue under the same combination of head coach and general manager. The Saints haven't been a top-of-the-line contender since 2012. The pieces all seem to add up. 

I don't think the Saints will be bad this season—a weak schedule will keep them healthy and in the running for an NFC South crown. But if they do finish under .500 again, it may be time to blow it up and start all over again. 

6. Jim Caldwell, Detroit

Tom Lynn/Associated Press

Over/Under Wins: 8.5

Early FOA Projection (Courtesy of Football Outsiders Via ESPN.com): 6.6 mean wins

The Lions are by no means a bad team. Ndamukong Suh's departure will put them in a better place financially down the line, and Haloti Ngata is as good a replacement as they could hope for. 

Detroit's biggest problem is that the NFC North should be a savage race again, with Minnesota closing the gap quickly. The Bears have some potential bounce back in them with a last-place schedule and better health. (Though, of course, they do still employ Jay Cutler, and nothing empirical can pick up on how Cutler quits on his playbook.) 

But Detroit rose to the playoffs last year on the back of a terrific defense, and with Suh and Nick Fairley gone, it's fair to question how this unit can't at least see some regression. Maybe Teryl Austin is the best defensive coordinator in the NFL despite not being offered a head coaching job this offseason. We'll see. But there's certainly nothing in Caldwell's track record that suggests he'll be a regression stopper.

Is a first-to-last-place scenario enough to make Caldwell expendable? Probably not. But it should put him on the hot seat for 2016.

5. Jeff Fisher, St. Louis

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Over/Under Wins: 7.5

Early FOA Projection (Courtesy of Football Outsiders Via ESPN.com): 5.8 mean wins

The Rams have invented a new plan to get them over the .500 mark: hand the ball to Todd Gurley behind a good offensive line. The problem is that neither of those elements is assured to work in 2015. Gurley is still recovering from ACL surgery and may not be ready for the start of the season. All the linemen the Rams drafted are hardly locks to be instant contributors. 

That leaves their offense with the old plan for the time being: Watch a mediocre quarterback (now played by Nick Foles rather than Sam Bradford) throw to receivers who only look good in comparison to Tavon Austin. This was not a plan that led to success for the Rams in 2014. 

It's hard to see Fisher getting fired because his track record of avoiding the ax is legendary. But outside of the dominant defensive line, there's not much reason to believe in the Rams this season. If the 49ers are anything better than frisky, the Rams could easily finish last in the NFC West...which of course means Fisher will stay on the job, key a turnaround to eight wins in 2016 and then get a contract extension. 

4. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Over/Under Wins: 8

Early FOA projection (Courtesy of Football Outsiders Via ESPN.com): 9.4 mean wins

Two straight sub-.500 finishes had reporters wondering if the Giants would retain Coughlin. Heck, some of them began wondering aloud in November if Coughlin would be back. 

The truth is, the Giants have been dealt some setbacks you might have ignored. They've led the NFL in FO's adjusted games lost statistic, which measures how injured a team was, in back-to-back seasons. Quarterback Eli Manning struggled to adjust to new offensive coordinator Bob McAdoo's system early in the season. The offensive line was, for the second straight year, under a trial by fire. 

The Giants have done all they could to shore up need areas while keeping Jason Pierre-Paul around. They added Ereck Flowers to the offensive line. They spent two picks on safeties. General manager Jerry Reese continued his favorite free-agency pastime: bargain-bin shopping for inside linebackers.

Coughlin is a well-respected coach, but if he finishes under .500 for a third straight year, that should be enough for the Maras to dismiss him. 

3. Gus Bradley, Jacksonville

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Over/Under Wins: 5.5

Early FOA Projection (Courtesy of Football Outsiders Via ESPN.com): 5.7 mean wins

The Jaguars are an interesting franchise right now. They have a solid track record of finding undervalued players like Sen'Derrick Marks in free agency. They've filled a lot of needs by drafting well in the lower rounds, like with linebacker Telvin Smith, cornerbacks Dwayne Gratz and Aaron Colvin and guard Brandon Linder. 

The problem is that their big-ticket items—the guys who were supposed to be franchise stars—haven't been. Luke Joeckel has struggled at left tackle when he's been on the field. Blake Bortles had a tough rookie season at quarterback. Edge-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. will miss the entire season with a torn ACL. 

And when you have a situation where the head coach and general manager ignored the rest of the team to take Bortles, well, it's easy to find a place to put the blame. 

The Jaguars are trying their best to put pieces around Bortles. There's a new running game led by T.J. Yeldon. Tight end Julius Thomas gives the QB a sure-handed big-bodied weapon in the middle of the field. But if Jacksonville doesn't see some improvement this year, it wouldn't be surprising if Bradley paid the price for going all-in on Bortles. 

2. Joe Philbin, Miami

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Over/Under Wins: 8

Early FOA Projection (Courtesy of Football Outsiders Via ESPN.com): 10.6 mean wins

In this case, the Dolphins aren't here because they're a bad team. They're here because Joe Philbin has a history of underperforming despite solid talent. (And, obviously, his job status still carries some stink from the Jonathan Martin/Richie Incognito bullying scandal that happened under his watch.)

Now, some of this is understandable. Wideout Mike Wallace was never a true star player despite his big free-agent deal. Maybe you believe that quarterback Ryan Tannehill was hard-pressed to do much behind a bad offensive line the last few seasons and that his receiving targets weren't up to par. 

Miami should get a full season of offensive tackle Branden Albert. The team reeled in Ndamukong Suh in free agency. Wideout should be solidified between Greg Jennings, first-round pick DeVante Parker and a trade for former Saints receiver Kenny Stills. The only question marks are the back seven (aside from cornerback Brent Grimes), how high Tannehill's ceiling is and Philbin. 

Put simply, this team has too much talent to miss the playoffs again. If the Dolphins can't at least snag a wild-card spot, Philbin won't survive. 

1. Jay Gruden, Washington

Over/Under Wins: 6

Early FOA Projection (Courtesy of Football Outsiders Via ESPN.com): 5.0 mean wins

Toward the end of last season, the question with the Washington media circus wasn't just who would start at quarterback but who would anonymously leak something damaging about the situation first. Jay Gruden survived a disastrous first year by virtue of owner Daniel Snyder deciding not to give him the Jim Zorn treatment. But that doesn't mean he'll survive Year 2. 

Whether it's Gruden's system or Robert Griffin III's body doesn't actually matter at this point: Unless the quarterback re-establishes himself on the NFL radar, Gruden is going to take some blame. The Shanahans made it work, after all. Another year of musical chairs with Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy will lead to another top-10 draft pick. New general manager Scot McCloughan is not married to Gruden in the slightest. 

Mix that up with the other actual problems on Washington's roster—health concerns, lack of a second pass-rusher now that Brian Orakpo is gone and a shallow secondary—and it's a recipe to get a head coach fired quickly.

Over/unders courtesy of Linemakers.